With the death in California, what’s next?


The trendline sounds frightening: Nearly every day more deaths occur than in the past, never before during an epidemic in California.

More than a week later, the state has set four coronovirus death records on Wednesday, an all-time high – 193 deaths. Experts say the numbers are the expected result of a spurt in cases that began last month when communities around the state relaxed their lockdown restrictions.

An infectious disease dr. John Swartzberg said, “It is very sad to see these deaths recorded and the number rising, and it is scary, but (people) have to recognize that this infection spread about four weeks ago.” Specialist with UC Berkeley-UCSF Joint Medical Program. “So the question that we’re really interested in now is: Well, it was really bad, but where are we now?”

We now have nearly half a million COVID-19 cases across the state, with more than 9,000 new cases reported every day. Increasingly, those cases are coming from the Central Valley, while part of the new cases in Los Angeles County – which was a virus hot spot in the past – are shrinking. A total of 38 California counties are on the governor’s watchlist, meaning they have displayed evidence of the virus spreading anxiety and are not allowed to open some businesses, including all of the Bay Area, which saw more than 50,000 infections and 800 deaths. Has gone.

While the average number of new daily infections in the state has been declining since Saturday, Swartberg warned that even if this trend continues, it will still take time to calculate the state’s death.

“We are going to see a significant number of deaths for at least another month,” he said. “So keep your gear up, because it’s not going to be beautiful.”

Still, California is doing better than many other states. With 22 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, the Golden State – the country’s most populous – Ranked 28th for per capita mortality In the US, tied with Texas.

Who is dying of the disease in California: Young people are now more likely to be infected, but older people are more likely to die. California’s 65 and older state has 16% of its population, but only 11% of its coronovirus cases. However, according to data collected and analyzed by this news organization, they account for 76% of deaths. On the other hand, 18 to 34-year-old children make up 24% of the state’s population, but 35% of cases – and only 1% – are deaths.

Experts say people in older California know that they are more likely to have severe or fatal symptoms after exposure to the virus, generally working better to take shelter in place and avoid infection.

The 71-year-old Dr., head of the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at UC Berkeley. As Arthur Reingold said, “As an older person,” I think older people tend to be slower and tend to be more reluctant. Wide variety of things compared to young people. “

A disproportionate amount of COVID-19 infection and fatalities have also been observed in California’s Latinex population. Latinex residents make up 39% of the population, but make up 56% of coronovirus cases and 46% of deaths. White residents make up 37%, 18% of cases, and 30% of deaths, while black residents make up 6% of the population, 4% of cases, and 9% of deaths.

Across the board, the recent spread of the virus has worried experts and politicians. Earlier this month, Gov. Gavin Newsom reversed the course and ordered shuttering of indoor dining, bars, movie theaters and other businesses, after being allowed to reopen the economy’s broader nature. Experts are not sure that this step will be sufficient to reduce the virus. But they say we should find out soon.

When Newsom first shut down the economy in March, it took the state two-three weeks before its case count stopped, Swartberg said. This time, because Newsom used a lighter touch and let more businesses open, Swartzberg expects it to be closer to four or five weeks before it takes effect. This means that, if Newsom’s plan worked, California residents should face the infection in a week or two.

But not everyone is convinced of Newsom’s actions earlier this month, including the inclusion of counties with troubled coronaviruses to close gyms, hair salons, places of worship, indoor malls and non-essential offices, to the desired effect. .

“I think it’s good,” Dr. Said Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, a professor and chairman of the Department of Epidemiology and Biology at UCSF. “I think there’s reason to be worried that it’s not enough.”

Bibbins-Domingo expresses concern that the state will perish in a tragic middle ground in which enough businesses close for the finances of destructive workers, but at the same time, enough open to allow the virus to continue to spread is.

In addition, concerns about hospital capacity and the supply of personal protective equipment for healthcare workers – which first surfaced early in the epidemic – were back.

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