Will Trump or Biden Win Florida? 2020 election forecast


According to the data posted Monday on the Florida Division of Elections website, Democrats received 108,143 ballots in the state on Republican Election Day. But as it will determine who wins the presidential race in the Sunshine State, it depends on who you talk to.


What do you want to know

  • Democrats are leading on election day due to early voting leads
  • The strategists disagree on the size of Republicans on election day
  • Pinellas County has voted for the winner in 9 of the last 10 presidential races

Registered Democrats have a slight lead in polling going to Election Day (65.8% over 66.2%).

“Democrats are a little better positioned, aligned with a super PAC this year,” says Democratic Party strategist Steve Scalle. “Republicans clearly don’t have the election day advantage of outstanding ballots, which they have four Was the year before. “

Schale predicts that the final turnout will be around 75% -80%.

Blind Ingoglia, a former Republican Party president from Florida and a state representative from Hernando County, says the turnout will be around 82%, which he says augurs well for Donald Trump.

Ingolgia said, “I think the ‘Red Wave’, the ‘Red Tsunami’ that we have all been hearing about, will continue on Election Day.” “And I think we’re going to have so many voters on election day that it’s going to dwarf Democrats, and we’re going to get ahead of the edge in the raw ballots that they have now.”

This is the scenario that was played in Florida on Election Day in 2016.

Barry Edwards, a political strategist who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans, also believes more Republican “super voters” are ready to vote on Election Day – meaning voters who never contest. Huh.

He said, “Democrats and Republican super voters remain to vote for more than about a quarter, and the narrow advantage difference between Democrats and Republicans will be greater.”

Edwards and Ingoglia said that among the counties they would be seeing a return start after Miami-Dade County at 7pm last night, won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 with nearly 290,000 votes.

“I think Miami-Dad still goes to the Democrats, but I don’t think it goes anywhere around 300,000,” Ingoglia predicts. “I’m thinking that it could possibly be over 125,000 for Democrats, which would put Republicans in a much better position to win statewide.”

Ingoglia and Shekel are also looking at Pinellas County, which has now become Belweather County in the state. Pinellas has voted for the presidency candidate in nine of the last 10 elections since 1976 (an exception in 2000, when the county opted for Al Gore over George W. Bush).

The vote can turn on all elusive party-affiliated (NPA) voters, who make up more than a quarter of Florida’s entire electorate. Skelle says what is known about him is that they are a little younger and racially diverse than the rest of the state, and he says he would wonder if Biden did not win yesterday’s vote (Donald Trump voted NPA Won in 2016).

Ingoglia agrees that Biden may possibly win the NPA vote, but thinks it will only be from certain points, assuming that there are some “shy Trump” voters who are not capturing public opinion polls.

Over the weekend, there were reports that the Trump campaign might try to claim victory on election night ahead of time, when the president could have an advantage in states where total votes would not begin counting until after the vote.

Skelle called the notion “absurd”, noting that George W. Bush was able to win Florida and the White House in 2000 due to military and absentee ballots that came after the election.

“If Biden wins Florida tomorrow night, regardless of what happens in other states,” he said.

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