New York City officials know the Kovid-19 case will climb this fall. The question is that they are looking to reopen the city, just how much is there?
For months, the city’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene have been working with academic groups at Columbia University and New York University. Academic teams have been asked to predict case numbers, hospital resources needed, and to advise the city on how to open workplaces, schools, restaurants and more.
Revealed this thing on Tuesday The Kovid-19 case in JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s New York offices is likely the latest example of what will happen as businesses push workers back into the office, and people start going back to school and returning to restaurants and gyms Huh.
In interviews, experts from two academic groups working with New York reported what is likely to increase significantly this fall, but with the opportunity to prevent the worst with careful public-health measures such as masks and social disturbances .
Jeff Shaman of Columbia University, who is part of a team working in the city to predict the path of the outbreak, “If you do this type of phased manner, there is going to be some increase in transmission activity.” “Every model will tell you that you are seeing an increase in cases.”
Similarly, the city is planning for a resurgence, according to a top advisor to the mayor, trying to restore as much normal business as possible.
“Despite being independent for this, we plan around the notion that there will be a resurgence of this transition,” said Jay Verma, senior advisor for public health in New York City’s mayor’s office.
It is said to mean constant social practice, wearing masks and limited ability Scott Braithwaite is a professor at NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine who has led other educational efforts advising the city.
“Forget about the general situation,” Braithwaite said in a telephone interview. “If things were back to normal, the dialect unaltered, and we were not making a social mess that we were not wearing masks, a hundred people arriving in a day could resume the devastating wave.”
The transition to JPMorgan’s 383 Madison Avenue building came a week after workers began returning after the Labor Day holiday, and shortly before the deadline for senior traders to return to their desks. The bank, which has been the most aggressive in pulling people back to office, has now sent some Manhattan workers home, Bloomberg said Tuesday. The decision was an echo of the steps taken by workplaces around the city when matters first began to expand in the spring.
While JP Morgan has moved on, Americans have cautioned about reopening very quickly. A September Kaiser Family Foundation The survey found that a number of Americans thought the outbreak was yet to be the worst, versus already behind them. The vote split along party lines, with Democrats being more pessimistic.
Chasing the wrath
Groups from Columbia and NYU began working with the city at the onset of the outbreak. In weekly meetings, he helped project how many hospital beds would be needed, how many cases were likely to occur despite limited testing, and what would be the coming weeks.
The Columbia team is led by Wan Yang, a professor of epidemiology and director of the climate and health program at the University’s Mailman School of Public Health.
The work was previously confidential, Shaman said, but researchers pushed the city to allow it to be discussed publicly. “People have the right to see that,” the shaman said.
One of the Columbia models, released in June as the city resumed, predicted thousands of additional hospitals by the end of the year, although estimates varied widely on how quickly services were opened and How effective public-health measures are.
“It is naturally raw. We simply do not know what is going to happen, we do not know the specifics of it. “You open more, you’re spoiling it.”
Varma said that the models are useful in decision making, but cannot be taken as hard approximations.
“Infectious-disease models are not really designed to predict the future,” Verma said. “What they are designed to do is to give you information to help change the future.”
New York City is currently reporting around According to the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, two hundred new cases a day. This is only a part of the actual infections, although the number has been steadily coming down since the number of cases in a day in April to more than 5,000.
Testing is also being done in city schools. During Monday’s news headline, Mayor Bill de Blasio said that as of Monday the city had received 55 positive Kovid-19 cases out of 17,000 school teachers and staff that had been tested.
Verma said that the city has been weighing how to bring people back to their regular lives, as well as limit new cases. This month, across the border in New Jersey An increase in cases was recorded as it re-opened indoor food, theaters and prepared to bring children back to school.
He said, “To be honest, the model we are looking at may not necessarily be in other parts of the United States. “They are places like South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, among other large, dynamic, multicultural, international cities of global importance that have shown tremendous success and in eradicating the disease.”
Braithwaite said that social-far-reaching measures have an important role. At the onset of the outbreak, his group constructed the model under two scenarios, one in which people followed public health guidelines and social removal measures, and one in which they were not.
“Under that scenario, we were doing thousands of deaths in New York City. And under that scenario where people paid attention to social distances, you were committing tens of thousands of deaths,” he said.
According to the Department of Health, there have been 27,750 confirmed and potential Kovid-19 deaths in New York City so far.
Braithwaite said, “It looks like it’s going to be in the thousands, which is a big problem, but it’s a tenth.” In the modeling world, we’re very aware of what can happen: things as bad as Were, things could be ten times worse. ”
The mitigation is more pessimistic.
“We are presenting them with data suggesting that it is problematic,” he said, although he said there was a “lot of trouble” between controlling city affairs and reopening schools and preventing businesses from going bankrupt. Difficult balance was engaged in the act.
Reopening is good for the city, but it is also good for the virus, with Shaman saying: “There is a huge potential for growth even in a place like New York City, as 75% to 85% of the population is not yet infected. ”
– with assistance by Henry Goldman