Why vaccines may not be able to eliminate Kovid-19: QuickTech


Hungarian Coronavirus Vaccination Program Underway

Photographer: Akos Stiller / Bloomberg

The path to eliminate Kovid-19 is long and paved with uncertainty. Counting continues in many countries Vaccines to create adequate immunity in their populations so that SARS-COV-2 is not able to find those susceptible to infection, which slows the transmission of coronovirus and eventually stops. But even with the rollout of highly effective vaccines, vaccination coverage may not reach that level – the so-called Herd immunity limits anytime soon. For one thing, it is It is not known what level of immunity is necessary and whether the vaccines will Powerful enough to achieve it. There is danger of Emerging coronavirus variants that may weaken immune effects.

1. Can Kovid-19 be deleted?

so far, Only one human disease – smallpox – has been officially done is erased; I.e. reduced to zero cases and kept longer without continuous intervention measures. Smallpox is a highly effective vaccine and is thanks to the fact that humans are only mammals Naturally susceptible to infection with Variola virus which sometimes causes fatal disease. Man is the only known reservoir Poliovirus, yet it still spreads In some countries, widespread use of effective immunization and despite 32-year-old causes paralysis The global eradication effort SARS-Cove-2 is considered to sustain nature in horseshoe Bats, and mink, are known to infect cats, gorillas and other animals. Wiping the virus will require it to disappear from every susceptible species, which is not possible. In countries that successfully suppress Covid-19 cases, Disease eradication has been proposed instead.

2. What is elimination?

This is when the result of efforts to suppress an outbreak Zero new cases of a disease or infection in a defined area over a continuous period. There is no official definition of how long it should be. Make a proposal Corresponding to twice as long as 28 days The outer limit of the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 – the time between infection and the presence of symptoms. Some countries, such as New Zealand, have achieved zero new cases for long periods using border closures, lockdowns and diligent case detection and isolation. during An epidemic, which is the outbreak of a new infection across the continent, is to maintain the eradication of any infectious country Challenging, if not impossible, as the international threat from the virus threat re-enters the country.

3. Will vaccines eliminate Kovid-19?

it’s hard to say. Don’t know what To prevent the coronovirus from circulating, the population must have immunity, or even the most potent vaccines will be able to prevent it from spreading. One study speculated that preventing transmission, 55% to 82% of the population require immunity, which can be achieved through infection or through vaccination. However, herd immunity In the Brazilian state of Manaus, Amazonas was not achieved, even after an estimated 76% of the population was infected. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that mass vaccination would have a more powerful effect as vaccines appear to have stronger and more durable protection from a pre-infection.

4. How effective will vaccines be?

There is good evidence that shots are made by Pfizer Inc.Biotech SE and Modern Ink are very effective – up to 95% – on preventing recipients from developing Kovid-19 on their own. However, data on their ability to prevent people from developing asymptomatic infections or transmitting the virus to others have not been released. The gold standard in vaccinology is to prevent infection as well as disease, so-called provides Sterilizing immunity. But this has not always been achieved. For example, the measles vaccine prevents infection so that the virus is not spread among the vaccinated people, while the vaccine for it Whooping cough works well to prevent serious illness but is less effective at preventing infection. Encouragingly, A. Modern studies of the Kovid vaccine in monkeys suggested that it would reduce, if not completely prevent, the transmission of the virus. Using diagnostic tests AstraZeneca PLC vaccines indicate that it may be less than 60% effective in preventing infection – it does not reduce the likelihood of achieving herd immunity, even if everyone in the population received two doses.

5. How are virus factor changes?

Researchers reported new, fast-spreading B.1.1.7, 501Y.V2 and P.1 variants in the UK, South Africa and Brazil to study the ability of antibodies in the blood of recovered Kovid-19 patients. Some research indicated the ability for these infections to survive the immune defenses borne by natural infections. Scientists cautioned that lab studies are only indicative and there is no evidence that this is actually happening in the community, or whether vaccine-borne antibodies would be less effective against the new strain.

6. Is infection preventable to prevent cases of Kovid-19 vaccines?

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