Why this area can seal the fate of Trump 2020?


Since 1972, every Republican nominee for president has won the suburban vote, according to exit polls. That’s Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, George HW Bush in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and, yes, Donald Trump in 2016 (Trump beat Hillary Clinton from 49% to 45% among the suburban voters.)

(Sidebar: Mitt Romney in 2012 was the only Republican presidential candidate to win the suburban vote – 50% to 48% on Barack Obama – and lose the election.)

That correlation should be deeply troubling not just for Trump but for any Republican on the ballot right now.

Why? Because the revolt against Trump in the suburbs, which was at the center of the House majority-Democrats takeover in the 2018 midterms, appears to show no signs of slowing down.

David Wasserman, editor of the House in the Cook Political Report, tweeted a nonpartisan campaign tip sheet:

“What should really scare voters off the ballot: Trump is chasing Biden 7-9% more than the popular vote lost in 2016, but because there are so many urban areas where Trump had little room to fall first, the drop is likely to be even greater in suburban districts. “

What Wasserman means, in layman’s terms, is this: Trump is behind Joe Biden somewhere near 10-12 points in most national polls. Which is much more than the 3 points he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, even when he won the Electoral College (and the White House) in 2016.

And because Trump did all of that while it was flooded in urban areas (Clinton defeated him there by 26 points in 2016), Wasserman’s claim (and he’s right) is that the biggest decline in Trump’s position in a vote of the General election against Biden is almost certain The result of losses in suburban areas.

A collapse of Trump in the suburbs, losing them by 5 points or more, would not only cost him almost certainly the White House. It would also seriously endanger any Republican in a suburban House of Representatives district or a Senate seat in a state with a large suburban population.

Point: He loses the suburbs and Trump loses the elections. It’s that easy.

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