(Sidebar: Mitt Romney in 2012 was the only Republican presidential candidate to win the suburban vote – 50% to 48% on Barack Obama – and lose the election.)
That correlation should be deeply troubling not just for Trump but for any Republican on the ballot right now.
Why? Because the revolt against Trump in the suburbs, which was at the center of the House majority-Democrats takeover in the 2018 midterms, appears to show no signs of slowing down.
“What should really scare voters off the ballot: Trump is chasing Biden 7-9% more than the popular vote lost in 2016, but because there are so many urban areas where Trump had little room to fall first, the drop is likely to be even greater in suburban districts. “
And because Trump did all of that while it was flooded in urban areas (Clinton defeated him there by 26 points in 2016), Wasserman’s claim (and he’s right) is that the biggest decline in Trump’s position in a vote of the General election against Biden is almost certain The result of losses in suburban areas.
A collapse of Trump in the suburbs, losing them by 5 points or more, would not only cost him almost certainly the White House. It would also seriously endanger any Republican in a suburban House of Representatives district or a Senate seat in a state with a large suburban population.
Point: He loses the suburbs and Trump loses the elections. It’s that easy.