Home / U.S. / Where Donald Trump is going in the last week of the 2018 campaign, and why

Where Donald Trump is going in the last week of the 2018 campaign, and why



There is nothing more valuable in American politics than a president's time, so Trump's fate is a telling indicator that Republicans in Congress see the opportunity to win (or need to avoid a loss) and that the team Trump wants me to do it. Be in order to help your own 2020 prospects.

The most extensive takeaway? Trump is focused on keeping the Senate in the hands of the Republican Party, perhaps a tacit acknowledgment that the majority of the House of Representatives has already left.

Fort Myers, Florida: Trump is deeply concerned about the Florida Senate race, and not just because it is an opportunity for a Republican challenger (Gov. Rick Scott) to strike a Democratic incumbent in the manner of Senator Bill Nelson. Scott, a wealthy healthcare executive who is finishing his second term as governor, was one of Trump's first and most loyal supporters in the 2016 campaign, and Trump himself tried to convince Scott to challenge Nelson.

Why Fort Myers? It is in Lee County, a solidly Republican area that gave Trump 58% in 2016 and Senator Marco Rubio 63%. It is also one of the most populated counties in the state; Trump obtained 191,000 votes, and a margin of almost 70,000 votes, from Lee County in 2016.

And do not forget: Florida also has a very important governor's career, between the representative of the Republican Party Ron DeSantis, an ally of Trump of the first order, and the mayor of Tallahassee, Andrew Gillum. Given the size of the state, its implications for 2020, and the role the governor will play in redistricting in 2021, the race of the governor of Florida may be the most important in the country.

November 1

Columbia, Missouri: It's not at all surprising that Trump is going to campaign for the state's attorney general, Josh Hawley, a Republican who faces Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Polls show that the race is very close, and Republicans are very optimistic that Hawley is taking the trend in the right direction.

What is a bit surprising, at least at first glance, is that Trump is going to campaign for Hawley in Columbia, right in the heart of Boone County. Boone was one of three counties in Missouri that chose Hillary Clinton in 2016, but only 49% to 43%. (The University of Missouri, and its mass student body, is in Columbia). Then why? My theory: Republicans are trying to limit McCaskill's margin in the county; he won by 27 points in his fugitive victory of 2012, but only by 9 in his very tight race of 2006. If Hawley can keep Boone in single digits, mathematics for him in the rest of the state seems much easier.

November 2

Huntington, West Virginia, and an undisclosed location in Indiana: When stopped in Huntington, in the confines of the westernmost border of West Virginia, Trump can reach two races in the Senate in a single day. The stop in Huntington also allows you to visit an area that won with 60% of the vote in 2016 and is the type of industrial city where you have concentrated considerably during your first two years in office. The state attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, has to be delighted to have overcome this last week of the campaign, since most Senate strategists believe that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is a clear favorite.

As for Indiana, this, like Florida, is a somewhat passionate project for Trump. Republican Senate candidate Mike Braun is a self-made businessman with whom Trump clearly feels some level of kinship. And Indiana is one of five states where a Democratic incumbent is seeking re-election where Trump won with double digits in 2016. The poll in recent times suggests that Braun is at a stalemate with Sen. Joe Donnelly (D).

November 3

Bozeman, Montana, and an undisclosed location in Florida: For Florida, see above. It's the perfect combo of a career in which Trump is deeply and personally involved, and in which he has clear interests by 2020. In Montana, Trump, and his son Donald Trump Jr., have been in the "Last best place ", a group to help state auditor Matt Rosendale, who is not yet a favorite of Senator Jon Tester (D). Trump's motivation in the race has a lot to do with Tester's role, as a member of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, in defeating White House physician Ronny Jackson, who was Trump's choice to lead VA.

Why Bozeman? It is in Gallatin County, one of the most beautiful counties in the state. Clinton beat Trump by less than one point there in 2016. And while Tester won by almost 9 points in 2012, he lost it, by less than 200 votes, in his extremely narrow 2006 win over then-Sen. Conrad Burns.

November 4th

Macon, Georgia and Chattanooga, Tennessee: Unlike most Trump trips, this is for a governor's career. The dispute between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democratic state representative Stacey Abrams is not only closed, but is also very important on the national scene. (If Abrams wins, she will be the first black woman governor in the country). Why Macon? It is the third largest media market in the state and covers all or part of 23 counties in the non-Atlanta part of Peach State. And while Macon (and Bibb County in general) moved strongly for Clinton, the blue collar counties to the south and east of the city, Peach, Twiggs and Wilkinson, were areas of swings that Trump had narrowly and Kemp you will also need

The trip to Tennessee is based on boosting the Senate campaign of Representative Marsha Blackburn in an area where she is almost certainly underperforming. Chattanooga is a Republican area: Trump won Hamilton County, where it is located, by 15 points in 2016, but it is much more an establishment, a Republican area of ​​the Chamber of Commerce than a Republican territory of Trump. Retired Sen. Bob Corker, who has not been as warm in his embrace of Blackburn, is from Chattanooga and fits what the city wants from a Republican far more than Blackburn, a suburb of Memphis. This is a space where former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, needs to run well to have a fighting chance against Blackburn.

November 5th

Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Cape Girardeau, Missouri: Again, the Senate races of Indiana and Missouri. Fort Wayne is a Republican area; Allen County went with Trump by 13 points, but it's a place that is more competitive in the Trump era than you might think. It is also an area where Braun, which is from Jasper County in the western reaches of the state, does not have any kind of natural base.

Cape Girardeau, at the eastern end of Missouri, is about assistance to the base. Trump won more than 70% in Cape Girardeau County and neighboring Scott County. If Hawley wants to beat McCaskill, he needs to increase the numbers in this part of Show Me State.


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