big picture: Early polling figures indicate strong democratic enthusiasm in key battlegrounds. But strategists from both parties say Republicans can still get ahead of the increase in in-person turnout on election day.
description: So far, first-time and infrequent Democratic voters are outnumbering registered Republicans by 2016, according to data from Targartmart, a Democratic firm.
- US President Greg Speed said, “In North Carolina, about 1 in 5 ballots so far that did not vote in 2016 came from.”
- 24.9 million ballots have already been cast. Major states such as Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Iowa have received more than a quarter of the total ballots cast in 2016.
- More than six times more Democrats have cast ballots than at the same point in 2016 – and Republican early voting has almost collapsed.
Pennsylvania and Florida Are important to watch.
- 59% of first-time voters who are registered Republican only, compared to 15% who are registered Democrats. Democratic first-time voters were barely outpacing Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016 only.
- In Florida, Democrats’ lead over registered Republicans among first-time voters increased by nearly 10 percentage points compared to 2016.
What to see: 2020 is an election like any other, and 2016 should be compared with a grain of salt.
- Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Michael Bloomberg’s data firm Hawkfish, told Axis, “I can see this data with Trump’s lens from a vote consistently telling the Republic that vote-by-mail is a scam.” “This mistrust – it is contained in this data.”
- Republican and President Tarpoint Consulting, Mike Meyers said, “It is mandatory for Republicans to vote early.”