What early voting tells (and cannot) tell us about the election


Democratic strategists find that the initial numbers show the 2020 voters in 2016 to be bigger, smaller and more diverse – and not just to move forward votes that otherwise would have come on Election Day.

big picture: Early polling figures indicate strong democratic enthusiasm in key battlegrounds. But strategists from both parties say Republicans can still get ahead of the increase in in-person turnout on election day.

description: So far, first-time and infrequent Democratic voters are outnumbering registered Republicans by 2016, according to data from Targartmart, a Democratic firm.

  • US President Greg Speed ​​said, “In North Carolina, about 1 in 5 ballots so far that did not vote in 2016 came from.”
  • 24.9 million ballots have already been cast. Major states such as Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Iowa have received more than a quarter of the total ballots cast in 2016.
  • More than six times more Democrats have cast ballots than at the same point in 2016 – and Republican early voting has almost collapsed.

Pennsylvania and Florida Are important to watch.

  • 59% of first-time voters who are registered Republican only, compared to 15% who are registered Democrats. Democratic first-time voters were barely outpacing Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016 only.
  • In Florida, Democrats’ lead over registered Republicans among first-time voters increased by nearly 10 percentage points compared to 2016.

What to see: 2020 is an election like any other, and 2016 should be compared with a grain of salt.

  • Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Michael Bloomberg’s data firm Hawkfish, told Axis, “I can see this data with Trump’s lens from a vote consistently telling the Republic that vote-by-mail is a scam.” “This mistrust – it is contained in this data.”
  • Republican and President Tarpoint Consulting, Mike Meyers said, “It is mandatory for Republicans to vote early.”
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