Week 10 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

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PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 22: Le'Veon Bell #26 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts after rushing for a first down in the first half during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Heinz Field on October 22, 2017 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Potential NFL bettors don’t necessarily need a reminder about how difficult Week 10 could be when it comes to odds and over/under plays. 

But Thursday Night Football between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals provided one anyway. There, the Seahawks came away with a win as expected, but did so in a 22-16 outcome—in a game featuring a spread of six points. 

Yikes. 

The rest of the slate doesn’t look much simpler. Showdowns between uncommon opponents means tough picks and serious hurdles for bankrolls. Below, let’s look at the entire slate and then point out some of the easier bankroll-padding matchups to target.  

      

NFL Week 10 Schedule, Odds

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5) | O/U 40.5

Cleveland at Detroit (-9.5) | O/U

Green Bay at Chicago (-6) | O/U

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville (-4.5) | O/U 41

Minnesota (-1.5) at Washington | O/U 42.5

New Orleans (-2.5) at Buffalo | O/U 46

N.Y. Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U

Pittsburgh (-10) at Indianapolis | O/U 44.5

Houston at L.A. Rams (-11.5) | O/U 46.5

Dallas at Atlanta (-3) | O/U 50.5

N.Y. Giants (-1) at San Francisco | O/U 41.5

New England (-7.5) at Denver | O/U 46.5

Miami at Carolina (-9) | O/U 39.5

      

Green Bay at Chicago (-6)

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One game between familiar opponents, at least, makes for an easy pick. 

This line has ballooned by three points as the week has progressed for obvious reasons. The Green Bay Packers are without Aaron Rodgers under center for this NFC North showdown against a Chicago Bears team that has turned into one of the year’s top surprises. 

As expected, the Packers have looked lost without Rodgers, losing three in a row in ugly fashion (23-10, 26-17, 30-17). While almost unfair to point out, Brett Hundley has struggled to do much of anything on his way to one touchdown and four interceptions, the team doesn’t have a running game and the flaws of the defense are now underneath the spotlight. 

The Bears keep going in the other direction after turning to rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Not only have they won two out of three, they’re coming out of a bye looking to expand the playbook and let the rookie take some risks, which he noted, per Zach Zaidman of WSCR670: 

Zach Zaidman @ZachZaidman

#Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky: “I feel very confident and I’m very excited to really just start to open things up, and really just play within myself and the offense, and do my job so the offense can succeed and we can win more games.”

2017-11-8 23:11:00

Trubisky, thanks to great athleticism and a booming arm, is the perfect game manager to reinforce a superb rushing attack and elite defensive front seven led by Akiem Hicks. Since the switch under center, the Bears have allowed more than 20 points once in four games. 

At home, the Bears won’t have a problem stuttering Hundley and capitalizing on mistakes. 

Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 10

      

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville (-4.5)

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  8. JPP Dedicates Sack Dance to Fan Battling Cancer

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The Jacksonville Jaguars make for one of the easiest picks of the week. 

These Jaguars are currently one of the best teams in the league at 5-3. A defense boasting 35 sacks and 10 interceptions has Blake Bortles looking respectable under center (10 touchdowns, five interceptions) and the complementary strong running game led by rookie Leonard Fournette (596 yards, six touchdowns, 4.6 average) batters opponents into submission. 

“That is who we are,” Bortles said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). “We control the game, we control the clock and that is what we’re are good at. That way we can keep the other offenses off the field.”

The Los Angeles Chargers don’t command the same respect. Philip Rivers’ team started the season losers of four in a row, won three in a row and lost another before a bye to look like one of the league’s bigger mysteries. 

But it’s not such a mystery once unpacked. The running game isn’t lighting it up at four yards per carry, and Rivers is sitting on a 60.5 completion percentage with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. His defense might only allow 19 points per game, but it ranks 31st by permitting an average of 135.7 rushing yards per game. 

This plays right into the Jaguars’ hands, of course. Fournette is back after missing last week and Bortles is at home. The Chargers aren’t a good bet when traveling across the country, and this isn’t any exception—especially not against one of the quietly better teams in the league. 

Prediction: Jaguars 30, Chargers 17 

           

Pittsburgh (-10) at Indianapolis

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  2. Which Fantasy Fill-Ins Are Must-Adds?

  3. NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat After Week 9

  4. T-Rich Is Resurrecting His Career in the CFL

  5. Fantasy Stock Watch After Week 8

  6. Simms’ Midseason NFL Awards

  7. Ravens’ Chaplin Inspires Players on & Off the Field

  8. JPP Dedicates Sack Dance to Fan Battling Cancer

  9. Rams Are Best Team in NFC Right Now

  10. Winners and Losers of NFL Week 7

  11. Are We Trending Toward Pats Super Bowl Repeat?

  12. Buying or Selling Week 6 Fantasy Breakouts

  13. Updated NFC North Power Rankings

  14. Clbad of 2004 QBs Are Still Grinding, Is the Trio the Best Ever?

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  17. Gridiron Heights, Season 2, Ep. 4: Send Blake Bortles to the Moon Already

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  19. Gridiron Heights, Season 2, Ep. 3: “Being JJ Watt’s Brother Must Really Suck”

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One of the week’s biggest lines looks like one of the safest. 

Thank the Pittsburgh Steelers. Or the Indianapolis Colts. Or both. 

The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league at 6-2 and enter this one riding a three-game tear, taking down respectable Kansas City, Cincinnati and Detroit teams in the process. A few early-season hiccups seem a thing of the past, even if the big names don’t look statistically impressive considering Ben Roethlisberger has 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions and Le’Veon Bell only averages 3.9 yards per carry. 

But recovering stats as the Steelers round into form shouldn’t deter bettors—especially against these Colts. 

These Colts, meaning a 3-6 team with losses in three of its last four—the exception a win against a Houston team missing Deshaun Watson. Meaning a team that needed overtime to beat the lowly San Francisco 49ers and hardly escaped the Cleveland Browns by three points. 

The dysfunction stems right from the top of the organization, as a recent move noted by ESPN’s Adam Schefter illustrates: 

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

And the Colts have had enough: they released CB Vontae Davis.

2017-11-9 14:06:23

Antonio Brown and others shouldn’t have a problem running wild on a team that just cut its best defensive back. The development will open things up for Bell on the ground, and no, the Colts offense isn’t going to do much against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 16.4 points per game. 

Look for the Steelers to pull away early and never look back. 

Prediction: Steelers 30, Colts 10 

        

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.



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