The Grammy sneaked up on us! The Grammys, who stopped making their usual announcement in early December, are ready to launch the nominations for their 2018 ceremony on November 28, a.k. tomorrow. Last year brought a controversial end to the battle between Adele and Beyoncé, and this year could very well prompt a new fight. In preparation for the great move of the Grammys to New York City for its 60th anniversary (which airs on January 28), we've made some guesses about which artists will name the biggest music institution and what stories you'll want to see from close. they develop Come back to Vulture tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET to get the full list of candidates, and the opportunity to tell us how wrong we were.
The possibilities of Taylor Swift will be limited.
First, some domestic chores: the Grammy The eligibility period for next year only covers the music released between October 1, 2016 and September 30, 2017. What puts Taylor's reputation Swift and his chance to choose another album of the year until 2019, as the album came out on November 10 this year. However, his first two singles, "Look what you did that I do" and " … ready for it? " they barely made the cut. Look for the polarization "LWYMMD" to contend in the pop categories – and less likely, though not impossible – Record of the Year. Taylor's best bet, however, is "Better Man", the song she co-wrote for Little Big Town. He took home Song of the year at the CMA; expect to receive love in the country categories and possibly even in the Song of the Grammy year (which rewards composers, not performers).
The loss of Taylor, however, is a great gain for other artists. Those whose albums did not reach the deadline last year, think Bruno Mars The Weeknd Lady Gaga, A tribe called Quest Miranda Lambert, Metallica, Garth Brooks Childish Gambino John Legend, Run the Jewels, The Rolling Stones, J. Cole, Neil Young, Post Malone, all got carried away this year. Look for Bruno Mars and, possibly, the Weeknd to appear in Album of the Year.
Drake will be intentionally missing from the action.
Drake won twice at the Grammys last year, but he does not. Expect to repeat next year. According to reports, he did not submit his playlist-no-an-album More Life for consideration after snubbing the show earlier this year because he did not want the prizes he won anyway. That leaves him with only a handful of outstanding verses for the nominations, if he cares.
Which means that this could be the year of Kendrick Lamar …
Kendrick Lamar has been twice nominated for Album of the Year and twice to fall short. He lost to Daft Punk in 2014 and, controversially, to Taylor Swift in 2016. None of those artists (or Drake) will be a threat this year, leaving the door open for Lamar to finally run away with the ultimate honor of his latest album. , DAMN.
… unless Jay-Z or Ed Sheeran ruin the fun.
Except, to win, Kendrick will have to defend himself against some big dogs. For the album of the year, he will probably face Jay-Z 4:44 and Ed Sheeran Divide . Hov is the eighth most nominated artist of all time, with 59 nominations and 21 victories in total to date. His previous album, Magna Carta Holy Grail, garnered six nominations, and was not as revised as his last confessional, which has been praised as a return to form. Surprisingly, Jay-Z has never been nominated for the album of the year, a fact that could work in Kendrick's favor. If Kendrick and Jay-Z both compete for Album of the Year, however, it could hurt each of their chances of winning.
The Grammys try at least to pretend not to operate with gender bias giving equal opportunities in their upper categories of levels, except for what they define as pop. That is usually leveled to a kind of tacit rule of "an album by category" for the album of the year, where rap has historically been baded. In fact, the Grammys have only nominated two rap albums for the album of the year in the same year three times: Eminem The Eminem Show and Nelly Nellyville ( 2003), Missy Elliott Under construction and OutKast Speakerbobad / The Love Below (2004), and Kendrick Lamar good boy, mAAd city and Macklemore & # 39; s Heist (2014). Only once, when such a shared recognition occurred, did one of those rap albums ever win ( Speakerboxx / The Love Below ).
If the Grammys can not choose between Kendrick and Jay-Z, Sheeran (or maybe even Bruno Mars) could win by default. At least I should have guaranteed a nom: Divide was the best-selling album of the year until Reputation appeared and the Grammys adore a cow of money. It also helps that Sheeran is a previous candidate in this category.
"Despacito" will win big or it will be empty.
What the Grammys decide to do with "Despacito" could be the biggest story of the night. Luis Fonsi and The remix of Daddy Yankee with Justin Bieber is statistically one of the most important songs that the music has seen, but the Grammys rarely get along well in an unexplored territory. Seventeen years ago, the institution had enough common sense to recognize that Spanish music is expansive and popular enough to merit its own separate awards ceremony. In Latin Grammys last week, "Despacito" cleaned the house in a predictable way, taking home both the song and the record of the year. But what happens when a song like "Despacito" achieves an unprecedented crossover success? The Grammys have their own Latin categories, but none of them grants individual songs, nor are they televised. To complicate things further, "Despacito" does not even belong to an album that has been released (Fonsi's next album is about to be published). So, where to put "Despacito"?
In a world where the Grammys are a reflection of the American cultural populace, he would be nominated and would win, Record the year, without competition. And that may well be how this develops. The Grammys have previously nominated criss-cross hits such as "Livin & # 39; la Vida Loca" by Ricky Martin and "La Bamba" from Los Lobos for the Record of the Year, and even gave it to "Smooth" by Santana, but only one of those three was majority in Spanish, like "Despacito". If the Grammys can remove their cultural blinkers, they may allow a reggaeton hit to contain a pop record. With the Bieber impulse, "Despacito" should have an opportunity in the Best Vocal Performance of Pop Duo / Group.
Best New Artist should be stacked, but there is a clear favorite.
Little by little, Grammys are becoming trendy emerging artists while they are still on the rise. Three new names who should expect to see a nomination in this category contributed to the same song: " 1-800-273-8255 ." Directed by rapper Logic and featuring emerging singers Alessia Cara and Khalid the song fulfills all the Grammy boxes: it is a hit, admired critically, but on everything, applauded for having a cause. According to National Suicide Prevention Lifeline (whose number is the title of the song), the song is responsible for the second highest volume of daily calls that has been recorded after its release, and was further expanded after the performance of the trio in the VMA. . It is a complement to the Recording and Song of the Year nominations and should give a boost to the BNA nominations for all the artists involved. Both Cara and Khalid are also favored in this category for their solo work; Khalid previously took home BNA in the VMA.
Post Malone composer turned solo artist Julia Michaels and, much less likely, Cardi B may also contend, but ultimately this should be the prize of SZA to lose. She comes from an acclaimed debut album and star, a scene stealing work on Rihanna's "Consideration", and a steady growth within TDE, home to Kendrick Lamar, Grammy favorite, all of which should make her master the categories of R & B and Urban Contemporary. a lock for BNA. (We should also keep in mind that the artists you might expect to see here like Harry Styles, Kehlani and Halsey are not eligible for previous nominations or, in the case of Harry, because he was once in One Direction, although they were never nominated.)  Women will be eclipsed elsewhere.
It's been another depressing year for women in music, at least in terms of graphic performance. Only two songs directed by women have reached No. 1 in the Hot 100; Meanwhile, half a year pbaded before a woman got a number 1 album, and since then, there has only been a handful. The gender gap in the lists will almost certainly be reflected in the Grammy noms. Unlike the confrontation Beyoncé -Adele last year, female star power will be limited: Lorde could be the best photo for a woman in Album of the year. The critical albums of Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Lana Del Rey and Halsey will probably perform inferiorly in the categories in which they compete against the Ed Sheerans, Bruno Marses and Harry Styleses of the pop sphere. Meanwhile, the narrative around Kesha's triumphant return probably made more noise than the music itself, although "Praying" deserves its chance in the Song of the Year. Country, however, could tell a slightly better story for women, with albums by Miranda Lambert, Reba McEntire and Little Big Town.
Rap is the category to watch this year.
In that same line, rap has historically been a game of men, and it is very true in the Grammys. Cardi B could be the big disrupter of rap this year if the Grammys can name "Bodak Yellow" as Best Rap Song and, even bigger, as Record of the Year, as they did for "Fancy" Iggy Azalea years ago.
The Grammy can not predict the longevity of an artist and neither can the modern rap game, but the way in which the institution continues to treat the virality of rap will be revealing. Earlier this year, the Grammys announced that the rap categories will be subject to a nomination review committee as a means to "eliminate the potential for a popularity bias that disadvantages emerging artists, independent music and releases. at the end of the year. " it's one of 15 other camps with similar committees, so this move was not completely directed.) Last year, the Grammy paved the way for Chance the Rapper's multiple victories by finally making broadcast-only music eligible.
This year, the Grammy will have to decide how much is willing to adapt with rap in the SoundCloud era, playlist and memes, whether they name songs like Migos "Bad and Boujee", Rae Sremmurd & # 39; s "Black Beatles", Lil Uzi Vert "XO Tour Llif3" and Future Mask Off. " Also, are the Grammy ready to choose between Future's two futures? – Back to # 1 albums? Assuming Childish Gambino presented Awaken, My Love! and, especially "Redbone", as R & B, the Grammys will allow you to pivot from the rap after they have already nominated you for the Best Rap Album before (As Beyoncé learned last year, the Grammys do not take kindness And what will the Grammys do with rappers like XXXTentacion and Lil Pump? The big story is still Kendrick versus Jay-Z possibly competing for Album of the year, but the rappers and successes of lower level finally make a longer-term difference for the institution.