US unemployment rate set to return to single digits: Echo week ahead


A rise in coronavirus infection in Alaska

Photographer: Meg Russo / Bloomberg

The US labor market probably boosted its rebound to reduce the unemployment rate to under 10% since the first epidemic in August.

With more than two months before the US election, this week’s jobs report has come to rely on what President Donald Trump could provide ammunition for, claiming that the economy would lead to a recovery under his leadership. Is maintaining. His Democratic opponents, led by Joe Biden, are likely to question whether such reforms can continue to a large extent as America’s struggle to control coronoviruses.

US employers estimated to add another 1.4 million jobs in August

According to a Bloomberg survey ahead of Friday’s Labor Department report, employers have not turned 1.4 million workers away from the 1.76 million results for the month of July last month, covering the period in mid-August. Economists see the employment rate at 9.8%, nearly three times its level before the epidemic.

The number of title payrolls is likely to reflect an increase from about 238,000 temporary workers hired to conduct the courtesy US census. While overall profit is a matter of additional business recombination and Kovid-19 cases, the economy remains Delicate suffering from illness.
The weekly jobless-claims data on Thursday will make more sense about the state of the labor market following a report that has improved Some warning.

What do Bloomberg economists say…

“The August employment report may give a final positive payroll print before a job loss strike. The process will be a test from the interrupted school ahead of the holiday shopping season. The report said that the labor market recovery must be strong enough to overcome seasonal factors for strong gains in the coming months to keep the hiring going. ”

– Yelena Schultayeva and Eliza Winger. For the full preview, Click here

Elsewhere, India, Turkey and Brazil will publish GDP data for the second quarter and a group of central bankers is scheduled to speak.

Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap up about what else is coming in the global economy.

US and Canada

Digesting the Federal Reserve’s historic announcement last week, investors said it would be a step A more wobbly attitude towards inflation will receive a triple dose of input from top policy officials before the central bank enters a quiet period of pre-meeting.

Vice Chairman Richard Clarida closed things down on Monday with a speech on the Fed’s new monetary policy framework, followed by Governor Lyle Brainard on Tuesday on the same topic, and New York Fed Chairman John Williams on Wednesday on the economy and the Kovid -19 discussed.

With the blackout beginning on Friday midnight before the policy meeting of 15–16 September, these three probably provide the largest hope In terms of what is expected to indicate Further guidance or changes to the Fed’s purchase of bonds reinforced.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan discussed the Fed’s updated inflation policy strategy, concerns over asset inflation, and the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the Dallas Fed’s district.

In Canada, a report on Friday showed that the economy added 250,000 in August, a month of direct gains.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

The number of euro-zone inflation is projected to grow at a rate of only 0.2% on Tuesday in this month, while unemployment figures due on the same day will likely reveal an increase in July. This is ahead of German factory orders on Friday which would likely indicate a slowing of the pace of recovery.

Euro-zone inflation rate is projected to slip to 0.2% this month

Investors will be intimidated by comments by European Central Bank officials due to concerns about staggering rebound and revival of cases of coronovirus. Vice President Luis de Guindos, Chief Economist Philip Lane, and Governing Council members Jens Weidman, Class Knott and Robert Holzman are scheduled to register attendance before their Sept 10 policy decision to set a quiet period for the ECB.

Meanwhile, Bank of England policymakers including Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled to testify before UK MPs on Wednesday.

In Ukraine, the central bank meets on Thursday, with economists split over a possible rate cut.

Central bank rate decision this week

The figures on Monday may show the Turkish economy contracted by 10.1% in the second quarter, while a report on Thursday is expected to show inflation up to 11.9% in August. The former data point would put more pressure on the central bank to keep interest rates down – as demanded by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The numbers on Monday will likely show inflation that remained muted in Kenya in August, but moved up in Uganda.

Asia

China’s August PMI report will be closely watched on Monday for signs of improvement in the world’s second-largest economy. Manufacturing surveys across the region follow on Tuesday.

India will release its second-quarter GDP data, with analysts expecting a historic contraction due to the world’s largest lockdown to prevent the spread of Kovid-19. Analysts will also see Japan’s industrial production and retail sales as the second wave of virus outbreaks.

The Reserve Bank of Australia expects no change in policy on Tuesday, and GDP data in the second quarter on Wednesday will confirm the economy’s slowdown. Speeches are also scheduled to take place on Wednesday and Thursday from members of the Bank of Japan board.

In South Korea, August trade data for the August release are expected to show a decline in exports again after a three-month correction.

Latin america

On Monday, Colombia’s central bank is set to cut its key rate to a record-low 2%. Inflation is below target and output is projected to fall to 7.9% in 2020, after April’s economic activity ceases. Minutes are published the next day.

Climb back

Forecast forecasts for major economies of Latin America

Sources: National Statistical Agencies; The 2Q 2020 forecasts are average estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg

Brazil is one of the major economies in the region on Tuesday to report April-June output: the quarterly decline may not come in double digits but the year-over-year result will certainly be. A still-stirring epidemic, tight budgets and palace intrigue will challenge the recovery.

Chile’s central bank will keep its key rate at a record 0.5%. Expectations are that it will provide additional incentives to aid recovery before the end of the year – which may include buying Treasury bonds in the secondary market.

– Assisted by Alister Bull, David Goodman, Paul Gordon, Benjamin Harvey, Robert Jameson, Chris Middleton, Rede Picker, Malcolm Scott and Michael Winfrey

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