Even if Biden defeated Trump, he would be unable to pass legislation on key issues such as health care, immigration and climate change until Democrats simultaneously seize the Senate, where Republicans now have 47 -53 is the majority.
Democrats can stop it. According to the latest forecast by the Cook Political Report, Democratic challengers in two states, Arizona and Colorado, have a good chance of defeating Republican Incumbents, while only one Democratic unaffiliated in Alabama, looks particularly vulnerable.
A voting majority requires Democrats to win as many additional seats as possible, depending on who wins the White House, as any 50-50 Senate tie is broken by a sitting vice president. If Trump wins re-election, Democrats need three states besides Arizona and Colorado for a majority; If Biden wins, the Democrats probably only need two more.
“Maybe” because there is enough time to shift and change races, not to mention here.
Where will those seats come from? According to Cook’s Political Report Senate forecasts, there are currently seven races cast as tossups.
Top Democratic Goals: THe tossed sevenUPS
The Democrats’ top targets are Maine, North Carolina and Iowa.
In all three races, Republicans inconsistent with Trump’s unpopularity are being weighed, while their Democratic opponents may benefit from higher turnout among voters who want to see Trump defeated.
Broad demographic trends are causing trouble for Republicans nationally, with fewer women stating that they will support Trump in 2020, similar to how suburban voters shunned them, according to polls, and Trump’s return to college. Support falling among whites even without degrees.
In Maine, longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins was ultimately out of favor with voters, most of whom say they voted for Collins to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, the second pick to join Trump’s highest court. Reject.
In North Carolina, Republican dissident, Thomas Tillis, has defended Trump to deal with the coronovirus crisis, while most voters say he’s partnered with Trump on the state’s Democratic governor over public health regulations to host the Republican National Convention Supported.
While Republican Joni Ernst was finding it difficult to beat this election cycle, she also appears to be suffering to defend against Trump’s pandemic policies, and Theresa Greenfield has shown unexpected strength.
But the campaign still continues, these and other breeds still have time for change.
Republicans are hoping that the political battle over Supreme Court nominee Amy Connie Barrett will strengthen conservative voters, as did the battle over Kavanagh in the 2018 midterm elections. And last-minute political fallout from the debate, the Kovid crisis, the economy or some unexpected turn can change the race again.