UFC Fight Night Betting Odds, Projects and Picks: Find Betting Value in Wednesday’s 11 Fight Island Fights

UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs. Ige starts at 7 pm ET – 3 pm local time on Wednesday at 7 pm ET with six early fights on ESPN and ESPN +.

The main card starts at 10 pm ET – 6 pm local time – featuring five bouts, including a featherweight main event between Calvin Katar and Dan Ige.

In addition to moneylines and over / under, there are several ways to place bets on the MMA Fight – including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or end within a distance.

As a result, after examining all betting options, your specific UFC card can provide a sufficient amount of actionable value.

Check the full betting estimates for Wednesday’s UFC card, with analysis and select below for my Wednesday bets.

UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs Ige Moneyline Projections and Pix

Below, you can find my Crowdsource Fair Odds Moneyline projection for 11 matches each Wednesday. In the next part, you will discover forecasts for each fighter to finish within distance for those fights or to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

There are eight possible moneyline plays for Wednesday – six favorites and two on the underdogs, depending on the odds listed, relative to crowd projection.

However, two of those fighters, Abdul razak alhassan And Chris Fishgold, Each was overweight And both were fined 20% of their fighting purse. Missing weight is not necessarily a sign of poor performance – fighters who have lost weight since 2013 are 43–43 – but Alhassan is also a favorite company and has not fought since 2018, while Fishgold has been off for 13 months.

Fighters returning from significant layoffs over a year win less than 40% of the time in the UFC – so I can’t support betting on either man, but I don’t see enough line value to place bets on the other side .

Jack noise The most favorite of the week, but at -700, he is not even fit to join the Parlies. However, given her ample win projection (96%), she has a profitable way of playing in the prop market.

Diana Belbita And Khamzat Chimav My two favorite undercard bets are And Parle’s Pieces for Wednesday.

In her UFC debut against Moby McCann, Belbita was overwhelmed – which we will touch on from moment to moment – but she made significant attacks at a relatively high volume (98 total); Especially compared to her rival Lianna Jojua, who landed just 1.53 significant strikes per minute in her UFC debut. Bellabita has a 3-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage over Jojua, and if she can keep the fight standing, she should be able to separate from the range.

Cheemavas is making his UFC debut on short notice, which is problematic for two reasons: UFC debutants only win 43% of the time against UFC veterans, and late replacements only 37% of the time (94-158) in at least 10 days. Wins notice. He is a fast starter, however, winning all six of his professional fights before the end of the second round, and has a serious advantage against John Phillips – who saw that he had a challenging load.

I am going to play Belbetta and Cheemaev in the prop market and I have combined the two together into a Moneyline Parel.

Molly McCain (6.49 strikes per minute, 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes) Talia Santos is likely to provide too much pressure to handle. McCann has won in his last three clashes, while Santos is searching inside the Octagon for his first win – he has a six-inch advantage, but McCann stays in the pocket and pushes as many times as possible inside his range Will give.

I initially planned to choose both Calvin Dagger and Jimmy Rivera, but after digging deeper into both of those fights, I opted for both teams, Dan Ige and Cody Staman.

You can read more about the Ige selection in my main event preview.

As a starman, the crowd battle made him a minor favorite in this fight, even against a very tough opponent in the Riviera, who have only lost in the top bantamweight competition – champion Petr Yan, No. 1 -Ranked Marlon Moras and No. 2-ranked. Contestant Alzman Sterling – in three of his last four fights.

The stamen are leveled against increasingly superior enemies. Still, he has statistical advantages over the Riviera in striking accuracy (+ 9%), defense (+ 4%), differential (+1.34 to +0.22), and volume (landed at a rate of +0.41 per minute) – and better striking. Skill (3.34) Takedown per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy).

Rivera’s takedown defense (95%) is stable. He won the early part of his fight with Yan – perhaps being ignored here, a small favorite – but Stammen has developed into a highly effective point fighter, and he has a more versatile following in this fight. Skills, which may be enough to sway the judge if they go to pronounce the verdict.

Tim elliot The only remaining moneyline play is the one I made for Saturday. He has lost three of his last three fights and four of his last five, but has recently received a contract extension and is headlining at the co-main event on Fight Island – which speaks to how the UFC makes his appearance. How does it matter.

His opponent Ryan Benoit has had only one fight since 2017, a negative strike differential (+0.88 to -0.38), and fewer grappling skills (64% takedown) than active Elliott (4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, 55) Defense). % Accuracy) which provides multiple avenues for victory.

Moneyline bets

  • Molly McCain-140 (1 unit)
  • Cody Stamman +114 (0.5 unit)
  • Tim Elliott-130 (1 unit)
  • Dan Ige +250 (0.5 unit)
  • Parel: Diana Belbita / Khamzat Cheimaev (-101, 1 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs Ige Prop Projection and Pix

In addition to creating crowdsourced projection for Moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission – which enables us to determine the appropriate odds for each fight to go the distance:

Based on current moneylines and how to win, the nine winning method for Wednesday gives Prop Bates offer value.

Because I had already played both Elliott and McCain on Moneyline, I am not going to play them to win by decision. I think both fighters provide a path to end (through Elliot and KO / TKO’s submission to McCain), but both bets still provide value.

Additionally, I am not going to play Fishgold to win by decision or Alhassan is projected to win by KO / TKO, as his numbers are half that, as I mentioned earlier, both fighters lost weight – And my level of concern increased octagonal activity only because of their lack.

Alhassan has recorded all 10 of his knockout wins in the first round, so Alhassan Round 1 (+110) may be a more lucrative bet than supporting him to win by KO / TKO (-215), but I’m totally Staying away from

If Cody Stamman gets a win against Jimmy Rivera, it’s going to come on the scorecard – the crowd set those odds at -109, and Stamman is listed at +180. I divided a unit between the stammen’s moneylines, and their proposal to win by decision.

Bellabetta also provides enough value to win on the scorecard. At a margin of +150 to win by decision compared to a crowd launch of -166, which is Arguably the best bet of the night.

The stakes for Chimavah are to win by aligning with the betting market, and have continued to tick down to battle under 1.5 rounds – but her chances of winning in the first round (+130) have remained steady in some places. I will bring Sweed back to win early in UFC debut.

Finally, Jack Shore provides the value for winning submissions (-115) in the first fight of the night relative to crowd projection (-180). The prospect is 12–0, hoping to remain undefeated against Aaron Phillips – who returns to the UFC after a six-year absence, and Shore is highly likely to end the fight, finishing with a margin of -250 Likely, as a – 715 (87.7% implied) preferred.

Prop bets

  • Jack Noise by Submission (-115, 0.5 Unit)
  • By Diana Belbeeta Decision (+150, 0.5 unit)
  • Khamzat Cheimaev wins in 1 round (+130, 0.5 unit)
  • Decision +180 by Cody Stamann (0.5 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]