However, for Trump to actually return in the 2020 election against former Vice President Joe Biden, it cannot be just his average self. You have to do much better than normal.
He has averaged just a 42.5% approval rating among voters for his entire presidency. Trump’s disapproval rating during that same period has been approximately 53%, making him a net approval rating of -10.5 points.
The idea that Trump will somehow get his net approval rating into positive territory seems like a long shot. His net approval rating has only been positive for 1% of his entire administration and all those days were at the beginning (i.e. his honeymoon period).
Would a -4-point net approval rating be good enough for Trump to win another term? It would be far from a guarantee. A net approval rating of -4 for Trump was not good enough to take the national lead in polls against Biden in late March through early April. No set of polls I know of has Trump within 3 points of Biden.
That is a lot to ask.