After President Donald Trump’s campaign lasted for a long time, thousands of new supporters were tied up in rural, red pockets of the country, seeking votes for president when they came out.
On election day, it offered some evidence.
With many major battlegrounds out of the race, Trump’s strong Election Day boom may not be enough to outperform a Democratic operation that also cast his vote. With the number of votes still counting, the total turnout has crossed the 2016 level.
But the tight presidential race and unexpected democratic losses in congressional leaders demonstrated Trump’s resilient power of appeal with rural, white voters, and a growing polarization that could derail his leadership.
The Trump campaign’s strategy is built on increasing support lost in population in ten locations, said Democrat William Frye, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, while Democrats rely on ‘growing cities and groups with suburbs.
“The clock is ticking,” Fr. said. “But in this election we found that it is not ticking too fast for the Democrats.”
Despite the White House’s winner not being clear, Republicans won Wednesday and thanks to white, rural voters.
In Iowa, Democrats had expected to take a Senate seat, but Trump won the state easily with his rural turnout, and GOP Sen. Joni Ernst captured his seat.
Democratic rape. Abby Finkenauer lost her reelection bid in the eastern part of the state as Trump increased his margin in rural areas such as Buchanan County, west of Bubunke. Trump won rural counties with 15% marks in 2016, which is 96% white. This year, this margin increased to 21 percentage points.
In North Carolina, Trump garnered his 2016 total of 2,400 votes in small Columbus County, near the South Carolina border. He repeated that pattern in the vast rural areas of the state, reflecting the Democratic boom in his urban base.
Democrats had hoped to win the state outright for Biden and ousted Republican Sen. Thom Tillis as part of his effort to win majority control of that chamber. Both races were too early to call on Wednesday.
To ensure that Democrats pushed their voters to tell them what the historic voting level might be. Those Democratic voters were likely to vote early and by mail – meaning their votes were slow to count. As the number of votes increased, several major battlegrounds – including Wisconsin and Michigan – became Biden victories and Trump’s leadership was narrowing in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
But an Associated Press analysis of the results found strong turnout – so far – tilted in Trump’s favor. In counties where vote totals were higher than in the previous presidential election, Trump increased his margin more than his Democratic opponent compared to the 2016 nominated Hillary Clinton vote. Although the differences were small – 0.2 percentage points on average – this is enough to cater to tens of thousands of additional voters.
Many of these were high-voting areas – surpassing the 2016 total, with the country having at least 140 million votes. The number is expected to grow, particularly as California slowly counts millions of additional ballots, a process that can take weeks. It will take longer or longer to determine the national voting rate.
Experts believe that this election may include the maximum rate of voting – a percentage of the eligible population, as all women were given voting rights in the 20th century.
One of the counties to surpass its 2016 turnout is Butler County, Pennsylvania, an area of suburbs and towns north of Pittsburgh where Trump won two-thirds of the vote and achieved a 36,000-vote margin in 2016. Hundred votes more this year.
Trump held one of his last, largest campaign rallies in Butler, an estimated 54,000 people two days before Election Day. State Republicans spent months signing the new GOP registrar in the county – the GOP has laid a net of 11,000 voters on Democrats since Trump’s 2016 election.
One of them, 20-year-old Anastasia Longo, who was excited to vote for president in her first election. “I believe Trump will win and I want to be a part of it,” she said in an interview with her best friend before casting her vote on Election Day.
Democrats also saw margins increasing in important parts of the country. In cities with populations over 1 million, Biden improved on Clinton by 1.5 percentage points. But Republicans argue that Democrats benefit largely from white, college-educated voters in urban areas and their suburbs, a group that already heavily participates in elections.
Republican data analyst Patrick Ruffini said, “You really can’t squeeze more voters”. But white voters who didn’t graduate from college – the core of Trump’s support in these areas – voted at lower rates, so there would always be more ground to get from them.
Moving forward, Ruffini said, “It looks like Republic has an advantage” in the turnout game.