Medford, Wis. (AP) – President Donald Trump’s once-relaxed gains in the critical area of Wisconsin around the blue-collar hub of Green Bay have dwindled. In Republican-dominated suburban Milwaukee, as well it has thinned.
And his supporters are confident that he can prepare thousands of new voters for setbacks in the state’s thousands of populated rural areas.
Trump’s path to victory in Wisconsin, a state he narrowly won in 2016, has become increasingly complex, and therefore his path to the 270 electoral votes needed for his reelection.
it’s clear. There were far more states in 2014 than there were in 2016. “And they include states won by a significant margin, such as Trump, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia.”
Few states are as important to presidential prospects as Wisconsin, which he led in 2016 with fewer than 23,000 votes out of nearly 3 million cast and who had not voted for a Republican for more than a generation.
But even Trump’s supporters believe that the hill they are looking at is standing on the hill overlooking it. “Can Republicans and Trump offset? That’s the big question, and I don’t have a strong answer,” said Jim Miller, Republican chairman of Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, which covers the state’s northernmost 26 counties is.
A similar story is playing out in other Midwestern states and Pennsylvania, with local officials raising alarm about Trump’s prospects. They should build a significant foothold in these states in the final four weeks of the 2016 campaign to repeat their 2016 troubles and defeat Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump has been pushing for his call for law and order to nominate Judge Amy Connie Barrett to the Supreme Court and in response to demonstrations on racial injustice, which he says are winning Wisconsin issues.
“I think we are not necessarily losing those voters. I think those voters are currently unspecified in the Milwaukee area, ”said Nick Trainer, director of war strategy for the Trump campaign.
Trump planned to campaign in Green Bay last Saturday, but his positive coronavirus test forced him to cancel, ending his struggles in the region of the state as he defeated Clinton by 18 percentage points, Wisconsin voting records show.
Trump’s once narrow lead in that area collapsed in a Marquette University poll published Wednesday. GOP legislative surveys noted by strategists are also indicating concern that there is little time to rebuild the margin needed to win the state a second time.
Republican former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen said, “He’s winning the Green Bay Market, but not enough to help statewide.”
The hurdle is similar to Trump’s in Ohio, where he won by 8 percentage points, but where public surveys show the race a pass.
Scott Borgmenke of Ohio Gov. Bob Taft, a former Republican, said, “You can’t win a state from 8 and then you can struggle in the 30 places you dominated.
According to ad tracking firm Cantor / CMAG, Biden’s campaign announced on Tuesday that the Ohio ad would be moving forward, with Trump reducing his Ohio ad.
According to Kanker / CMAG, the trend is similar in Wisconsin, where Trump slashed his advertising 75% in the past month and reduced Biden’s spending by $ 2.3 million to $ 173,000.
Jensen said Trump also needed to improve in the suburbs of Milwaukee.
The president last campaigned in Milwaukee in January, the night Decorate debated in front of the presidential caucus in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump visited blue-collar Kenosha south of Milwaukee in August after shooting a black man by white police officers, although he did not conduct any political events.
Wisconsin voters “will see a lot more of the Trump campaign over the next four weeks,” Trainer said.
Still, Trump’s suburban absence has lessened his Wisconsin dilemma, one that casts him in Pennsylvania: stay away from the state’s population centers or isolate and risk suburban voters.
This has sparked some unexpected campaign travel advice for Trump from Wisconsin Republican Rep. John Nygren.
“Shouldn’t be disrespectful to him, but, for him, he might be better off not moving to the suburbs,” said Nygren, away from Marinette in northwestern Wisconsin. “Because if he’s not in the news, it’s probably not a reminder of the concerns that people have.”
Jensen said the president’s combative personality has cost him.
“It’s all a matter of style. The traditional GOP base of college-educated professionals cannot stand the president’s style, ”said Jansen, who has conducted focus groups in legislative districts in the major Milwaukee area.
This is also a scenario in Pennsylvania, in which Trump won by a smaller percentage than Wisconsin.
Trump is facing more declines in the suburbs in Pennsylvania, where Republicans held sway like Chester County until 2016, and have since lost, said Republican former US Rep. Ryan Costello, who led Chester County until last year Was represented.
Trump has heeded Nygren’s advice since the campaign in Oshkosh, a center in the southern Fox Valley, in August, and outside of Wausau in September, the media market reached northern Wisconsin. Vice President Mike Pence campaigned in Wadow, in LaCrosse on the western border and in Eau Claire in the northwest.
But Trump must attract voters for the first time in a rural north with a population of several thousand, where he received more than 60% of the vote in many counties, to compensate for the decline in more populous parts of the state.
“It’s going to be a challenge,” said Mike Bubb, president of the GOP in small Taylor County, with a shrug. Trump received 70% of the votes in the counties 20,000 west of Wausau. Taylor posted Trump’s second-highest 2016 margin in Wisconsin.
Gaining more support from first-time voters, Marquette’s September poll showed Biden, not Trump, but Trump.
“Can you squeeze enough votes to make a difference?” Jensen said. “Maybe right now.”