Trump election win is the best case for stock: JP Morgan


According to JP Morgan, an election victory for President Trump would be the best case for the stock market.

The “orderly Trump victory” would take the benchmark S&P 500 index by more than 13% to nearly 3,900, a team of JP Morgan strategists led by Dubrocco Laxos-Bujas wrote.

S&P 500 may compete 3,900 on Trump Win

The anchor Security The last Change Change %
SP500 S&P 500 3372.72 -92.67 -2.67%

Under that scenario, the strategist feels that deep value sectors such as energy and the financial sector may benefit from a major shortfall. On the other hand, they say that a victory by former Vice President Joe Biden could cause investors to take a profit in high-flying tech stocks thanks to the capital gains tax increase.

The anchor Security The last Change Change %
XLE Energy Select Area SPDR ETF 29.11 -1.27 -4.20%
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF 24.46 -0.80 -3.15%
QQQ INVESCO QQQ NASDAQ 100 277.50 -7.24 -2.54%

Voters give a big invitation to troll registration papers: JP Morgan

The firm also sees gridlock as “net positive” and Democratic sweep as “mostly neutral”.

Wall Street generally prefers gridlock because it prevents major regulatory changes. The blue wave will give rise to some positive catalysts through greater fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, while resulting in negative consequences such as higher taxes.

With eight days to go until the election, polls suggest Trump faces a tough battle for reunification.

According to an average of polls compiled by Realcare Politics, Biden leads nationally by 8.3 points. Their lead is below 4 points in major battlegrounds. Additionally, traders on the betting platform have predicted that a 54% probability of a Democratic sweep is valued.

A separate team from JP Morgan said earlier this month that the voter-registration pattern suggested the election is closer to the election signal, and Trump agrees. The president repeatedly stated that his campaign’s internal turnout looks good, showing momentum towards Biden during public elections.

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Earlier this month, Trump tweeted, “Poll numbers look very strong.” “Great crowd, great enthusiasm.” Heavy red is coming !!!

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