Trump could still recover, but seems less likely than ever

WASHINGTON – If you’re a Republican, there are two possibilities of what happens between now and November, given the approximate numbers of polls and the grim general political environment.

One, President Trump will inevitably return to the dispute, bringing together Republicans who don’t want to lose power and softening Joe Biden’s support, just as it happened in the weeks after that disastrous “Access Hollywood” video in 2016.

Or two, the numbers will stay the same or even worsen for the Republican Party, as Trump is now the incumbent, not the challenger, amid a pandemic that has now killed nearly 135,000 Americans and raised the unemployment rate of United States to two digits.

It’s that second scenario that should scare Republican Party strategists: What if the majority of the electorate has already resigned from Trump, like what happened to George W. Bush after Hurricane Katrina and Iraq, or Jimmy Carter after of the hostage of Iran? crisis?

“As one strategist who has been doing extensive focus group work with suburban voters tells us, ‘they are mostly done with Trump,'” wrote Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report earlier this week.

Even Republican messaging is not making its way. A survey in Monmouth this week found that 77 percent of American adults believe that the phrase “dismantle the police” means changing the way police departments operate, not eliminating them entirely, as messages have been sending the Trump team.

And here are the latest poll numbers this morning: 67 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and race relations, according to an ABC / Ipsos poll.

If the 2020 presidential contest doesn’t end up changing, we can look back on the past two months: Trump suggests ingesting bleach; the president holding the Bible in the church of San Juan; the Tulsa rally; and the peak in cases in Arizona, Florida and Texas, as the beginning of the end of this race.

Et you, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh?

In fact, one way to look at yesterday’s Supreme Court rulings on Trump’s taxes is that the judges, including those appointed by Trump on the bench, are not acting as Trump will win in November.

“The United States Supreme Court on Thursday gave President Donald Trump an opportunity to reject the efforts of House Democrats to obtain his financial records, but ruled that he is not immune to the attempt by the Manhattan District Attorney to obtain your taxes, “writes NBC’s Pete Williams.

And it had two people appointed by Trump, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, who rejected Trump’s claim of absolute immunity to having to release his income taxes, says Peter Baker of the New York Times.

“I think what they feel for him is: ‘We intend to be on this court long after he has a bad memory, and if his administration is about to collapse, we could well have been people who were unwilling to do so. Exploit completely the Constitution for him, ‘”says Baker Richard Primus, a constitutional scholar at the University of Michigan School of Law.

Downloading data: the numbers you need to know today

3,133,312: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States, according to the latest data from NBC News and health officials. (That’s 59,313 more cases than yesterday morning).

134,164: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far. (That’s 882 more than yesterday morning).

38.03 million: The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers from the COVID Monitoring Project.

More than 1,000: The number of TSA agents that have tested positive for coronavirus.

39 percent: The percentage of coronavirus tests that the United States performs compared to the level that experts say is necessary to mitigate the spread of the virus.

67 percent: The proportion of Americans who disapprove of the COVID-19 president’s handling, according to a new ABC News / Ipsos poll.

Tweet of the day

Vision 2020: Biden presents its economic agenda

Speaking in Dunmore, Pennsylvania, on Thursday, presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden unveiled his “Build Back Better” economic agenda, according to NBC’s Marianna Sotomayor.

“Let’s take this opportunity to make bold investments in American industry and innovation so that the future is made in the United States, throughout the United States,” Biden said.

He added: “When we spend taxpayer money, when the federal government spends taxpayer money, we should use it to buy American products and support American jobs.”

And: “Let’s prepare ourselves to face the challenges of the climate crisis. That means investing in infrastructure, clean energy, creating millions of high-paying union jobs in the process. ”

McConnell calls Republican convention a “challenging situation”

Republican senators are beginning to step down if they attend the Republican convention next month, and that list could now include Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

“Well, I think the convention is a challenging situation, and several of my colleagues have announced that they will not be attending, and we will have to wait and see how things look in late August to determine if you can safely convene so many people. McConnell said.

That’s a deviation from earlier this week when the McConnell office told the NBC Hill team that “the leader fully intends to attend.”

While Republicans are still planning a convention in person in Jacksonville, Florida, the president hinted earlier this week that it could be flexible: “It really depends on the moment,” he said. “Look, we are very flexible, we can do many things, but we are very flexible.”

The cap: money, honey

Don’t miss out on yesterday’s pod, when we checked in with some of the latest Democratic Senate fundraising totals.

ICYMI: What else is happening in the world?

Some Republicans see generous unemployment benefits as a “disincentive to work.” But is the economy strong enough to end them?

The Trump campaign is trying to find a new strategy for the protests after the Tulsa debacle.

Steve Bannon says Joe Biden is doing well with his “Buy American” plan.

The president is unhappy with his defeat at the Supreme Court yesterday in his financial records case.

The Washington Post reports that the president is privately complaining about how the coronavirus is affecting his presidency, calling himself the main victim of the virus.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff called the Confederacy a “traitor” at a Capitol Hill hearing yesterday.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a fellow veteran, is the latest conservative to question Senator Tammy Duckworth’s values.

The New York Times writes that suburban voters are not buying Trump’s white tort mark.