Three long shots with the ability to alter Justify in Preakness Stakes



The winner of the Kentucky Derby and favorite of the morning line Justify seems almost unbeatable in Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Not only the Bob Baffert-trained foal is unbeaten in four stars with impeccable connections, nine of the last 20 winners of the Kentucky Derby have won the second stage of the Triple Crown. In addition, the four previous winners of the Baffert Derby: Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) War Emblem (2002) and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015) also won the Preakness.

[2018 Preakness Stakes lineup, updated odds and picks]

If Justify runs like he did on the first Saturday of May, there is no reason to doubt his chances. But, you can even expect that even the favorites of the 1-2 morning line lose a third of the time, setting up a monster payout if one of the long shots in the race comes first to the cable.

A long shot worth watching is No. 8 Bravazo (20-1). On paper, Bravazo has become two weak performances in a row: an eighth place in the Louisiana Derby and a sixth place in the Kentucky Derby. However, rider Gary Stevens spoke of "a malfunction of the management" after the performance at Fair Grounds in March and the horse's ride at Kentucky Derby under rider Luis Contreras was not ideal.

The footnotes of the race said Bravazo "the start, recovered and competed four to five wide" and, according to Mark Midland's badysis at HorseRacingNation.com, Bravazo was six wide and lost ground on the first turn, and seven wide it entered the stretch at Churchill Downs. As a result, Trakus, a tracking system that determines the exact location of each horse throughout the race, estimates that Bravazo traveled farther than any other horse, except Magnum Moon, which finished in 19th place. After adjusting for that distance additional traveled, using a length equivalent to approximately 8.5 feet, Bravazo was only at 2.8 Justify lengths, not the eight lengths we saw in the final results. The figure of Good Magic's expired lengths obtains an adjustment of 2.5 to 3.1. In other words, after explaining the bad trip of Bravazo, he was the best horse in the Derby, not in the good Magic.

F inish Kentucky Derby horseorse Extra traveled feet Extra traveled lengths Real losing margin (lengths) Adjusted losing margin (durations)
1st ] Justify
6th Bravazo 44 5.2 8 2.8
2nd Good Magic -5 -0.6 2 1/2 3.1
8th Lone Sailor -41 -4.8 9 1/4 ] 14.1

"I was surprised at how well he managed the sloppy track," said rider Luis Contreras on Bravazo. "I got a good rest and tried to be as close as I could, I have a long trip, but it happens in a race like this, it moved very well in the furthest turn, but the horses pbaded me at the end."

Here are two other long shots that are worth watching.

[Best bets for 2018 Preakness include the favorite Justify]

No. 2 Lone Sailor (15-1)

Eighth in the Kentucky Derby, coach Tom Amoss saw his horse start slow before being bottled on the railing in a field of 20 horses, an excusable trip for a child of 3 years that it improved.

His three-digit Brisnet speed figure in the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby is the third highest mark in the field behind Justify (114 in the Santa Anita Derby) and Good Magic (105 in Breeders & # 39; Cup Juvenile) and its closing style could help you pick up the pieces if Justify and another horse or two enter a speed duel from the start. In addition, Lone Sailor broke her maid on a sloppy track at Saratoga in September, winning by 11 corps to seven stadiums.

No. 4 Diamond King (30-1)

A local king, Diamond King won the Federico Tesio Stakes in Laurel in April by three quarters of a length, matching his high speed figure of Brisnet (95) in his second opening, a permit career, at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania. That in itself does not make him a contender: since 1981, when the Tesio Stakes was held for the first time in Laurel Park, only one horse, Deputed Testamony (1983), has followed a victory with a victory in the Preakness, but its The harbading career style, on the other hand, could prepare you for success.

Diamond King posted a solid Brisnet final speed figure in his final preparation at Laurel, but equally impressive were his pace figures: 93 on the first call, 92 on the second call and a 95 for the force. That pushes his average life rhythm and final speed figures above 90, joining only Justify and Lone Sailor in this regard in the Preakness field.

In addition, Diamond King has been at an amazing distance on each call in each of its six lifetimes, five of them ending in money.

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