LONDON (Reuters) – The planet is showing that it is in crisis. In recent weeks, the world has seen ferocious wild animals in the US West, torrential rains in Africa, strangely warm temperatures on the surface of tropical oceans, and heat waves from California to the Siberian Arctic.
Scientists said that this climate of the wild season is consistent with climate change, and the world can expect even more extreme weather and higher risks from natural disasters as global emissions of greenhouse gases continue.
“We are seeing the emergence of some signs that there was almost no chance of occurring without human-induced climate change,” said climate scientist Sonia Seneviratne from the Swiss University ETH Zurich.
For decades, scientists have warned about such events – but one should be wary of saying that a particular storm or heat wave was a direct result of climate change. He is changing now.
Advances in a relatively new field known as “event attention science” have enabled researchers to assess how large a role climate change can play in a specific case.
In determining that link, scientists evaluate how the weather system might behave if humans had never started pumping carbon dioxide into the air, and compare it to what is happening today. They are also factors of meteorological observations of the last century or more.
Seneviratne told Reuters, “It seemed like an established truth that you can’t call a particular extreme weather event less and less true for climate change.”
Obvious examples are found in the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves worldwide.
Scientists needed only days to identify climate change in this year’s record temperatures in Siberia, with forests and peat drying out in the Russian tundra for massive wildfires.
Climate change links have also been found in 2018 in simultaneous heat waves hitting Europe, Japan and North America. The study found that these events together would likely be close to zero without an industrial-era increase in planet-warming carbon. Emission.
“When it comes to heat waves, we see that climate change is a complete game-changer,” said Fredraik Otto, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, who has helped pioneer the field of attribution science.
As a heat wave hit the American West Coast last month, Earth saw a new record high temperature of 54.4 Celsius (130 Fahrenheit) in Death Valley, which sits below sea level in the Mojave Desert of California. Weeks later, the area was still light, with mercury climbing on Sunday, setting a new 49C for nearby Los Angeles County.
“It’s not so much that climate change is destabilizing historical weather patterns,” said climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California. “In many cases, it is increasing them.”
Warmer temperatures in turn allow moisture to evaporate and dry out the forest and brush the land, creating the perfect conditions for wild animals. In California, “the fire we’re seeing is large, and moving fast, and more intense than those you would have historically expected,” Swipe said.
But attention science has not explained everything. For example, researchers have not yet fully understood Europe’s heat waves.
“In Western Europe, the increase in heat waves is much stronger than the model predicted, and we don’t have a clue,” said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a planting science specialist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.
Wind, rain and flowers
Average global temperatures have increased by about 1C since pre-industrial times, with changes in the atmosphere and oceans also leading to more intense storms.
Overall storms are strong and spinning slow, as they take energy from heat in the oceans. Researchers at the University of Bristol in the West of England published a study last month that found that without rapid reductions in emissions, climate change could create five times more storms in the Caribbean.
In the United States, warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico raised Hurricane Laura to a Category 4 hurricane in the past 4 hours, before slipping into Louisiana with winds of 150 mph (240 kilometers per hour). Governor John Bel Edwards described it as the most powerful storm to attack the state, also overtaking Katrina in 2005.
Tropical cyclones originating from the Indian Ocean are showing similar patterns. The region has long been considered a hot spot for cyclones, with some of the deadliest storms in recent history churning through the Bay of Bengal before slamming into India or Bangladesh.
The exceptionally high surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean associated with climate change helped Cyclone Amfan rise to a record 5 hurricane ranges 18 hours before it entered the Indian state of West Bengal in May, scientists say.
The following month, Cyclone Nisarga, initially projected to bat for the first time in Mumbai since 1948, hit 100 km (65 mi) south of the city, at speeds of 120 kmph (75 mph). Landslide with
“Both cyclones were unprecedented,” said Roxy Matthew Cole, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “If we go back to these types of extreme events, we see that very hot sea temperatures have played a major role.”
The temperature of those warm oceans is also contributing to excessive rainfall and flooding in China, which this summer faced its most punishing flood season in three decades.
“Extreme rainfall events are going to be more extreme. Shang-Ping Xie, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California, said that there is something about which we feel very confident.
Africa is now feeling it after torrential rains and severe floods. Thousands of people have become homeless due to flooding from the Nile River in Sudan. The government said that Senegal received more rainfall on a single day on Saturday, which is usually seen during three months of rain.
“There is a large and growing body of evidence that is telling us that human-caused climate change is affecting extreme events,” said climate scientist James Cousin of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “It is very rare that this is happening in a supportive way.”
Reporting by Matthew Green; Editing by Katy Deagle and Lisa Shumaker