This is how Tilray, Sundial, and other marijuana stocks stack up


Marijuana stocks are experiencing a wave of renewed interest after months of positive political developments. They have also caught the attention of some of the same retailers on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum that

GameStop

the population at ridiculous levels before it fell towards Earth.

A website that tracks stock quote mentions on the WallStreetBets page found

Sundial Cultivators

(ticker: SNDL),

Afria

(APHA) and

Tilray

(TLRY) just dragged

GameStop

(GME), in terms of popularity shortly after the market closed on Thursday. The trio of marijuana stocks posted double-digit declines on Thursday. Other great firms mentioned in the forum include

Canopy growth

(CGC) and

Cannabis Aurora

(ACB).

While marijuana stocks are often traded together when driven by sentiment, many of these stocks have had varying degrees of success. Some investors look to exchange-traded funds to bet on a broader basket of marijuana stocks. the

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF

(MJ), who has exposure to marijuana businesses, was down 24% on Thursday, close to earlier-week levels. But that ETF does not include US multi-state traders, or MSOs, who must be listed without a prescription in the US because they sell a product where it is illegal at the federal level. the

Advisorshares Pure Cannabis ETF

(YOLO) includes US MSO.

Here are some of the biggest individual stocks and what analysts are forecasting. It is not an exhaustive list, as there are more than a hundred public actions with some links to the cannabis business.

Note: Sales estimates for Aphria, Aurora and Canopy are for fiscal year 2022

Source: FactSet

Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA)

Tilray

and Aphria announced a merger in December. Aphria CEO Irwin Simon anticipates the deal will close in the first half of this year. An investor would receive about 0.84 Tilray shares combined for each Aphria share they own. Aphria has a recent market capitalization of $ 8.3 billion, compared to Tilray at $ 10.1 billion.

Tilray entered the year with high short interest on about 48% of the shares available for trading, according to data from S3 Partners. That drops to a recent 23%. Aphria’s short interest is approximately 7.4% of shares available for trading, up from 16% at the beginning of the year. When investors short a stock, they sell a borrowed stock in the hope that they can pay it back by buying the stock at a lower price. When a mass of short sellers rush to hedge and avoid further losses, it can propel stocks higher.

For Aphria, analysts expect the company to end fiscal 2021 in May with annual sales of $ 534.8 million. They expect sales to grow to $ 710.3 million in fiscal 2022. On the other hand, Tilray ended its last fiscal year in December. Analysts expect the company to report annual sales of $ 208 million, growing to $ 277.8 million in the current year. Of course, the merger will cloud any long-range estimates.

Tilray’s median analyst rating is Hold, according to FactSet, although the median price target is just $ 12.20. Aphria’s average rating is overweight, but the median price target is $ 12.60.

Sundial Growers (SNDL)

The sundial, which once traded above $ 11, has fallen to penny stock status. In February last year, the central management team resigned. The company had issues including half a ton of cannabis rejected by a customer due to poor quality, MarketWatch reported. Earlier this month, Sundial announced a capital increase that sent shares down.

The stock rallied this month amid interest from retail traders, up 403% so far this year. Its market value is $ 4.3 billion after Thursday’s decline. Analysts expect sales to reach $ 53.1 million for the full year 2020. Consensus estimates call for $ 62.6 million in 2021.

Cannabis Aurora (ACB)

Cannabis Aurora

previously it was one of the most owned shares in Robinhood. But the company for several quarters has struggled to achieve positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A new CEO and some major cost cuts have helped, but haven’t won over analysts. None of the 17 analysts listed by FactSet has a Buy rating, while four analysts recently rated it a Sell. The median price target of $ 9.07 is below recent levels.

The company has a market capitalization of $ 3.7 billion. Analysts are not forecasting a profitable fiscal year in the next few years. The consensus estimate projects a net loss of $ 1.16 per share for the fiscal year ending in June, according to FactSet. In terms of sales, analysts forecast the company to hit $ 227.4 million in fiscal 2021, which ends in June. They forecast that sales will increase to $ 303.3 million in fiscal 2022.

Canopy growth (CGC)

Canopy growth

it has a recent market capitalization of $ 19.7 billion. Brewer

Constellation marks

(STZ) has a majority stake in Canopy. The producer also has an agreement with Acreage Holdings that would allow it to enter the US cannabis market, but the merger itself is triggered by regulatory changes that would allow it to do so.

The company has a market value of approximately $ 19.7 billion. Analysts expect sales of $ 441.4 million for fiscal 2021, which ends in March. They forecast it to grow to $ 639.9 million in fiscal 2022.

Cronos Group (CRON)

Chronos Group

It was one of the few profitable Canadian cannabis companies in 2019, and investors expect it to continue into 2020, with estimates calling for earnings of 3 cents a share. But consensus estimates expect a net loss of 24 cents a share in fiscal 2021.

The company received $ 1.8 billion from the tobacco giant.

Altria Group

(MO) in 2018 for a 45% stake. Unlike its competitors, the company has been conservative with its war chest. He still had $ 1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. On the other hand, analysts forecast that sales will only reach $ 43.8 million in 2020 and expect them to grow to $ 86.9 million in 2021.

US Multi-State Operators

Although the recent rush to marijuana stocks was fueled by a shift in the political winds in American growers selling marijuana there, they have actually lagged behind their Canadian peers in recent months. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said Barron He believes that “major US MSOs are attractively valued from a long-term perspective, although they will get some of the Canadian downdraft.”

Big American names include

Curaleaf Holdings

(CURLF),

Green Thumb Industries

(GTBIF),

Cresco Laboratories

(CRLBF) and

Trulieve Cannabis

(TCNNF). Zuanic is rated Overweight on those stocks, while he is rated Neutral on most of the big Canadian names. He projects sales in the US cannabis market of $ 22.1 billion in 2021, $ 28 billion in 2022, and $ 49 billion by 2025.

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]

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