Hardcore COVID deniers have been known to say that the epidemic will mysteriously disappear after Election Day, once unfavorable media coverage has served its purpose of seizing Trump’s electoral opportunities. In fact, looking at the trendline, we’re probably breaking our record for new daily affairs regularly in November.
And Europe is worse than us. More on that in a moment.
But by midnight, 77,640 new coronovirus cases were on the books, the latest figures to surpass the previous record of 75,723 set on 29 July. And the death toll had risen to 921 …
In the US, Midwestern states such as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin, North and South Dakota have seen a huge increase in new cases that have registered an increase in case numbers over the past two weeks. .
The situation in Idaho is so severe that local health officials are considering sending new coronovirus patients to neighboring states of Washington and Oregon as they are running out of hospital beds.
COVID tracking project recorded over 1,000 deaths Yesterday, the highest single-day total since late September. We received good news earlier this week with a couple of studies indicating that coronovirus has become less fatal over time, perhaps because doctors have only gotten better at treating the infection. But a low infection rate does not mean a low daily death toll; It depends on how widely the virus is spreading. Weekly deaths in the US rose more than 10 percent last week despite the decline of the virus. More spread means more dead.
See how bad it is in the Midwest right now via CTP:
One is enlightening with San Francisco to get a sense of the extent of COVID-19 spread in North Dakota. The city of San Francisco (883,000 people in 47 square miles) has more people than the state of North Dakota (762,000 people in 70,762 square miles). This week, more than 5,200 people in North Dakota tested positive for coronovirus; San Francisco had a count of 213. Since the epidemic began, San Francisco has recorded just over 12,000 cases and 138 deaths; There have been 34,165 cases and 323 deaths in North Dakota since March.
Comparative population but a poor result in North Dakota despite San Francisco’s very high density.
But it could be worse. We can be Europe. And maybe we’ll be there much earlier. World Kilometer:
The number of daily new cases in the US is incorrect (it may be that the WorldMotor updates earlier in the day, before the final count here) but the European numbers are accurate, I believe. And they are wavering. France, Italy, and the UK each have populations on the order of one-fifth the size of the USA. The population of Spain is about one-seventh of our size. If those countries were as big as we were and equally matters the same tomorrow, France would end 200,000 Per day, Spain at 140,000 and the UK and Italy at around 100,000.
You can find solace in that, that our own pandemic may just be worse. But you can also take it as a precursor to things to come here, remembering that we followed the trajectory of Europe in the spring. Those countries also took their lockdowns seriously, with the driving case counted this summer with the belief that a small baseline of community spread as a fall would mean a less brutal second wave this winter. They have now learned otherwise. And since April, we never made a concerted effort to suppress the virus. We are entering a respiratory disease season with a higher baseline than in European countries, with new antibody drugs in the short term and still a wide reach of the vaccine for several months.
What can we do till then? Here is a fascinating piece of data from Christopher Ingrahm of Weapo, who shines from a COVID-tracking project at Carnegie Mellon.
– Christopher Ingram (@_cingraham) October 23, 2020
There is a strong negative correlation between the percentage of a state’s population that says it is wearing masks most or all of the time outside the home and the percentage that someone they know has seen COVID symptoms. Does it prove that wearing a mask reduces infection? No. You will see on this graph some viruses from the north-eastern states, which were ravaged by viruses in spring fare; It may be that after the virus has already started its course, people there start wearing masks, which can lead to some degree of local immunity. It is also possible that people who tend to wear masks also tend to take other precautions that are more effective than masks. Maybe even higher-rate states wearing masks are more diligent about social distance.
But this graph clearly gives rise to the possibility that extensive mask-wear is helping to reduce transmission – or, in particular, to reduce the transmission of the virus in sufficient quantities to produce symptomatic cases for. There is a theory that while kicking around, while masks do not prevent the wearer from getting infected, they can * sufficiently block viral particles to show how severe the wearer’s infection is. If high viral loads produce more severe cases of COVID (another theory), it is important to limit how much virus enters your system when you encounter an infectious person. We need a study on whether there are actually fewer symptomatic cases in states where wearing masks is more prevalent. Ingraham’s graph states this, but does not confirm it.
Update: Weppo says that we defeated yesterday’s case count today, for the first time nationally cracked 80,000. The “new record” may be a general news on weekdays for the foreseeable future.