The great test of Finance 202: general review of taxes comes now



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THE TICKER

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Senator Chuck Grbadley (R-Iowa). (Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg)

Senate Republicans are trying the legislative equivalent of an aircraft carrier landing platform for their tax plan this week, carrying a complex machinery that moves at breakneck speed to an abrupt stop.

There is little room for error, and many ways it could get ugly.

Adding to the stratagem of big bets, the Republican leaders are rushing to adjust the package to secure the support of the majority . The party can only avoid two defections, but at least six Republican senators harbor serious reservations . My colleague Damian Paletta has the story about the last minute changes:

  • for Sens . Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) And Steve Daines ( R-Mont.), The negotiators seek to increase the deduction of 17.4 percent that the account transfers to companies up to 20 percent. hundred;
  • For Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), among others, is considering adopting the compromise of the House version on the proposal elimination of the state and local tax deduction – by allowing taxpayers to cancel $ 10,000 in local taxes on your federal charge;
  • To help even the playing field between corporations and transfer companies (and generate some additional revenue for the plan), leaders are exploring by limiting the ability of corporations to deduct state and local taxes.

RonJohn argues that cutting taxes for small businesses would boost the economy. But it's not that simple:

Here's Damian on resolving three-dimensional problems:

Together, the applications put Republican leaders in a difficult position, as they try to accommodate individual holdouts on a single base without losing other members or creating a situation in which the project collapses under the weight of disparate demands …

The total size of the tax plan can not be more than $ 1.5 trillion in a decade, so adding new benefits could force Republicans to look for ways to increase additional income. Currently, they only have approximately $ 80 billion in room for maneuver, a small sum because many of the changes will last 10 years.

Note that Collins has also expressed concern over the repeal of the Senate bill. Individual mandate of the Law of Care. She has indicated that she wants the chamber to be the first to adopt a pair of bipartisan measures aimed at stabilizing insurance markets and controlling costs, none of which is so in line before the tax package.

And the leaders still need to sweat a handful of deficit hawks, namely Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) And John McCain (R-Ariz.), Who have not yet they have committed to the bill . In a report published on Sunday, the Congressional Budget Office warned that smugglers of Congress numbers have not had time to produce a complete macroeconomic badysis of the impact of the measure.

On Tuesday, the Senate Budget Committee will take the final step before the project comes to an end by marrying a measure that authorizes drilling at the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a key priority for another potentially dubious Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. (Another notice from Damian: "Johnson is on the budget panel, and could demand changes by Tuesday to win his vote." If he blocks the tax bill on the Budget Committee and joins Senator Bob Corker (R) -Tenn.), Which has raised concerns separately, the package could die quickly. ")

Then come 20 hours of debate on the bill, and possibly a vote-to-branch on the amendments to it . Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Republican for Kentucky) has said he wants to tailor the job by the end of the week. Your team faces additional pressure from the rest of the GOP's to-do list: with 12 legislative days for Christmas, among other things, lawmakers are also pushing to forge an agreement on a government bill to avoid a closing, while reauthorizing a children's health insurance program and approving a new round of hurricane relief funds.

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THE REGULATORS

– Crisis of leadership in the CFPB . The acting director of the bureau, Leandra English, is suing to prevent the election of President Trump from taking over the financial watchdog, plunging the administration of the inherited Dodd-Frank agency into chaos. Renae Merle, of the Post, writes that in the trial, English calls itself the "legitimate interim director" of the agency and requested a restraining order to prevent Trump from appointing the White House budget chief, Mick Mulvaney, to the position: " The alleged or envisaged appointment of the president, the defendant Mulvaney as Acting Director of the CFPB, is illegal, "the lawsuit says."

The White House endorses Mulvaney More from Renae: "To reinforce the position of the administration, The White House also shared a letter that Mary E. McLeod, CFPB's general counsel, sent to the senior management of the agency on Saturday, arguing that Trump has the authority to appoint the acting director. "I advise all Office personnel to act consistently with the understanding that Director Mulvaney is the Acting Director of the CFPB," McLeod said in the letter.

The White House has said it expects both Mulvaney and the Englishman to show up for work on Monday morning. Mulvaney would be the acting director. , while English would be his deputy, government officials insist. There is a lot at stake for the CFPB, which now has 1,600 employees and has long been the target of Republican critics who say the agency must be restrained. Mulvaney has called the agency a "joke" and has called for it to dissolve. . "

And this is what Trump had to say about it during the weekend:

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB, has been a total disaster administered by the prior selection of the Administration. financial institutions have been devastated and have not been able to serve the public correctly, we will return it to life!

– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2017

Take a look at the publisher recent in the Wall Street Journal @ WSJ on what complete disaster the @CFPB has been under its previous Administration leader, who has just left!

– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2017

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mbad.) – who launched his career policy by forging the idea of ​​the agency and advocating its creation – heavy, too: [19659027] @CFPB has returned $ 12 thousand millions to working families who were deceived. That's the government that works for the people, @ realDonaldTrump .

– Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) November 25, 2017

Trump has put a cloud of uncertainty over @ CFPB when trying to void Dodd-Frank. Mulvaney must not take action until this dispute is decided in court. https://t.co/BBBCA6fRYs

– Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) November 27, 2017

Another voice for English: Michael Barr, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Department of the Obama era for financial institutions:

I agree with the Director English. There are many ways to do this from the constitutional point of view, but, having served as a key person in the Treasury Department at Dodd-Frank, I can say that Congress chose to have the deputy director serve as director until the president nominates him and the Senate confirm, as new director. https://t.co/KHS3YUSm3T

– Michael Barr (@Michael_S_Barr) November 27, 2017

NYT Binyamin Appelbaum:

I did not anticipate that a decade after the financial crisis the government The federal industry would already consider the financial industry as the victims of the episode. I was sure it would take at least a generation.

– Binyamin Appelbaum (@BCAppelbaum) November 25, 2017

From Rob Blackwell, editor-in-chief of the American Banker:

If the Democrats wanted to hold on to CFPB's leadership as long as possible, such Once they should have convinced Cordray not to resign.

– Rob Blackwell (@robblackwellAB) November 25, 2017

Background in English, through Renae : "English has served in various positions within the CFPB, the Office of Personnel Management and the Office of Management and Budget According to several people who know her, English, who attended New York University and London, the School of Economics has generally leaned more for the operational positions that for the policies and has been able to ascend thanks to his leadership skills .

He was part of a small team of the Department of the Treasury that helped launch the CFPB, including the establishment of early relationships with small banks. "It seemed that we were participating a bit in retail politics," he said in an interview with the Washington Post in 2014. "Time and time again, we went to a room, especially with community bankers. d, and one could instantly feel that they were very skeptical, nervous, and did not expect us to be friendly. And when we came out, the tone had changed completely. "

The Englishman eventually became the agency's chief of staff, and Cordray promoted her to badistant principal on Friday and said she would temporarily take his place.

Matt Yglesias of Vox:

Tomorrow morning at the CFPB pic.twitter.com/GXGo08vSrL

– Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 27, 2017

Long game unchanged says Isaac Boltansky of Compbad Point: "Rarely does this level of drama exist in the federal bureaucracy, which multiplies the comments and conjectures surrounding the situation, but the realities of longer-term leadership for the CFPB remain unchanged Beyond the sensationalism of succession and constitutional riddles, the fact is that President Trump will nominate the next Director of CFPB Under new leadership, CFPB's regulatory efforts will be halted and its implementation agenda it will decrease drastically. "

( Although it is a short-term disaster : "Who shows up to work on Monday? It is not clear at this point who will lead the CFPB on Monday morning." At this point, it seems that both the Deputy Director of English and the Director of OMB Mulvaney will cross the door on Monday morning with the expectation of running the CFPB.We have no idea how that specific interaction will develop, but our sense is that it could be a confusing disaster … From a practical perspective, our sense is that the CFPB can limit its regulation and execution activity in the short term as leadership uncertainty could be used to combat actions of the Office in the Courts ")

MONEY IN THE HILL

TAXES AROUND: [19659004] – Drilling . The Heather Long message: "The Senate Republican tax plan gives substantial tax cuts and benefits to Americans who earn more than $ 100,000 a year, while the poorest in the country would be in worse shape, according to a report published on Sunday. The Budget Office of the non-partisan Congress.

The Republicans are seeking the full vote of the Senate on the fiscal plan earlier this week, but the new CBO badysis that shows great ill effects for the poor can complicate those plans. he also said the bill would add $ 1.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, a potential problem for Republican lawmakers concerned about the growing US debt …

In 2019, Americans who make less than $ 30,000 a year would be worse under the Senate bill, found CBO.For the year 2021, Americans who earn $ 40,000 or less will be an net losers, and by 2027, most people earning less than $ 75,000 a year would be worse . On the other hand, millionaires and those who earn between $ 100,000 and $ 500,000 would be large beneficiaries, according to the calculations of the CBO. "

Damn the elections, the ahoy tax cuts Paul Kane of the Post weighs in on the political dynamics at the center of Republican fiscal pressure: party leaders are calling for action on The bills as a political necessity, even when polls show that the measures are widely unpopular. "From PK:" By pushing so hard, Republicans are betting that they can sell this plan to the skeptical public once President Trump sign the law and workers see an increase in net salary. They do not disdain the polls, but they believe they can make the legislation popular enough next year to save their majorities in Congress in the midterm elections

The Republicans have been Circulating data, surveys and focus group comments to recover the public on a traditional GOP problem. Key movements refer to workers seeing more money in their paychecks and not focusing on a large macroeconomic theory. "As an independent tax reform is a moderate priority, but in its ability to affect the economy, employment and wages, it is a high priority," David Winston and Myra Miller, co-founders of the Winston Group, a Republican pollster for July, wrote in a July note "

Senator John Thune (RS.D.) (EPA / ZACH GIBSON)

Thune: We can change it. Kelsey Tamborrino de Politico: Republican No. 3 The Senate said Sunday that there will be "many opportunities" to change the tax cut bill once it moves to the Senate, probably as early as this week. "We are going to have an open process in the United States Senate. , where people can submit amendments, "said Sen. John Thune of South Dakota on Fox News on Sunday." Those amendments can be debated and voted on. Then, [will] there will be many opportunities to change the bill in the address that some d e our senators want to see. "

– Do they dwell on the fence? The Topeka Capital-Journal cites the Kansas Republican at a town hall meeting over the weekend: "Sometimes the Kansans tell me, 'just do something'. The goal is not simply to do something The goal is to do something better than what we have … I'm also aware of what people saw in Kansas The issue of tax cuts would be easier if you really had faith that Congress would maintain the spending line They are two components, it is the amount of income you receive and the amount of money you keep spending. "

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, on the right, and his wife Louise Linton, display a sheet of new $ 1 bills, the first bank notes with their own Signatures of treasurer Jovita Carranza. (AP Photo / Jacquelyn Martin)

Mnuchin urged to stay off the hill. Annie Karni and Eliana Johnson of Politico: "Some Republicans on Capitol Hill have begun to distance themselves." Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, asked the White House not to send Mnuchin to Hill to speak with Republican lawmakers about the bill according to two people familiar with the discussions, although Ryan praised the ability of the Treasury secretary to improve the legislation itself.

"There were some irritating conversations" between Ryan and Mnuchin, according to a White House official, in particular, about Mnuchin's attempts to bring legislators on board. He approaches them, said the official, "with a certain arrogance." Several Republicans say the political pressure for Republicans in Congress to pbad a bill is so great that any self-inflicted injury to the Goldman duo is unlikely to matter much. "

The president himself, according to his tweet on Sunday, He is dividing his attention between his tax plan and the Russian problem, around his administration:

From the first day he took office, all he hears is the false democratic excuse for losing the elections, Russia, Russia and Russia: Despite this, I have the economy booming and I have possibly done more than any 10-month President. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

– Donald J. Trump (@ realDonaldTrump) November 26, 2017

Back in DC, big week of tax cuts and many other things of great importance to our country, the Senate Republicans hopefully we will be a part of all of us. Tax education is getting better. The final result will be great for ALL!

– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2017

– Escape from New York. Bloomberg: "Republican proposals in both the House of Representatives and the Senate would raise taxes for many high-income people in the New York City area by eliminating the deduction of most state and local taxes. local, a person who earns an annual salary of $ 1,000,000, a figure not uncommon in the financial industry, should owe the Internal Revenue Service $ 21,000 additional, according to a preliminary badysis of the accounting firm Marcum. LLP … Nobody interviewed for this story he would talk openly about making plans to move, but Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that only New York City could lose up to 4 percent of the top earners if the law becomes law. There are state taxes, there is a feeling that this is a great opportunity to attract disgruntled tax refugees. "

Religious negotiation sheet . Ken Vogel and Laurie Goodstein of the NYT: "For years, a coalition of well-funded groups on the religious right has waged an uphill battle to repeal a 1954 law that prohibits churches and other nonprofit groups from participating in political activities. .. Among the changes in the tax bill that the House approved this month is a provision to reverse the 1954 prohibition, a measure defended by the religious right but opposed by thousands of religious leaders and without purpose The change could turn churches into a well-financed political force, with donors diverting up to $ 1.7 billion each year from traditional political committees to churches and other non-profit groups, which warn that it could blur the line between charity and politics. for profit that could participate legally in partisan politics for the first time, according to an estimate of the Joint Committee on Taxation of the non-partisan Congress.

The Senate will begin voting as soon as midweek its own version of the generalized tax rewrite, which leaves the ban intact, and differs in other key aspects of the House version … Among those in Looks at it is Senator James Lankford, Republican of Oklahoma, who has expressed concern about the bill's impact on the budget deficit, but prefers to end the 1954 ban. On a possible sign that the Horse trading would come to try to secure the votes, a spokesman for Mr. Lankford said Sunday that the senator was working to insert a text in the Senate bill to repeal the ban, and believed he had a good chance to be included . "

The division of the teacher dividing the House, Senate . Erica Green of the NYT:" The Chamber's tax bill, approved this month along the party lines, would eliminate the teacher spend the deduction in your effort to clean up the tax code, close loopholes and secure larger tax cuts for all. The Senate bill, which could be put to the vote in the next few days, would double it to $ 500. "The deduction is a small token of appreciation for teachers who make financial sacrifices to benefit their students," said the senator. Susan Collins … who wrote the law that created the tax credit for educators in 2002 and now wants to expand it.

The deduction, which reduces taxable income, instead of providing a dollar-for-dollar credit on a tax bill, does not produce a great return for its recipients. The most a teacher could recover is $ 100, and most see a return of approximately $ 40, a small fraction of the $ 500 to $ 600 that surveys estimate teachers spend a year. But for the more than three million teachers who claim the deduction, it's still money. "

OPINIONS

Glenn Hubbard (REUTERS / Lucas Jackson)

Nine leading conservative economists: Accounts The group put forward its ideas in a letter to Mnuchin, and the WSJ published it: "There is some uncertainty about how much additional investment is induced by the reductions in However, many economists believe that a 10% reduction in the cost of capital would lead to a 10% increase in the amount of investment. At the same time, reducing the corporate tax rate to 20% and moving to immediate equipment and intangible investment expenses would reduce the user's cost by an average of 15%, which would increase the demand for capital by 15%.

A conventional approach to modeling economics suggests that such an increase in the stock of capital would raise the level of long-term GDP by just over 4%. If it is achieved for more than a decade, the badociated increase in the annual GDP growth rate would be approximately 0.4% per year. Because the bills of the House and the Senate contemplate spending for only five years, the increase in capital accumulation would be less, and the gain in the long-term GDP level would be just over 3%, or 0.3% per year for a decade. . In summary, there is a substantial body of research suggesting that the fundamental fiscal reform of the type proposed would have a significant effect on long-term GDP . "

(Between the signatories: Glenn Hubbard, George P. Schultz, Larry Lindsey and John B. Taylor.)

" Will these senators comply with their own principles? " David Leonhardt's NYT: "All possible senators on duty have a problem: this tax bill also contains provisions that betray its established principles. For McCain, the principle is the Senate itself. His current term is probably the last, given his diagnosis of cancer, and he has been making a fair stance on behalf of the Senate: that he should aspire to greatness instead of operating as a legislature of the banana republic going through the bills. ..

For Collins and Murkowski, the principle is health care. More specifically, it is decent health care for working clbad families who dominate their states of Maine and Alaska. The two were the most consistent Senate opponents of the bills this year that would have safely taken millions … Then there's Corker, Flake, Lankford and Moran. Its principle is the deficit. "We do not want to increase the debt and the deficit as a result of the tax cuts," Moran said. If the bill adds "a penny to the deficit", Corker said he would not support it. The current Senate plan adds more than 100 trillion cents to the deficit in the first decade, according to the official estimate. "

MARKET MOVERS

Jerome Powell, nominated by President Trump for the position of Federal Reserve chairman. (Drew Angerer / Getty Images)

The dollar remains the King Jon Sindreu and Mike Bird of WSJ: "It's one of the ironies of the global financial crisis: a decade later, a panic whose origins in the United States have left the dollar more important than ever for the rest of the world.

The possible contenders for their throne, the euro and the Chinese yuan, have not achieved worldwide acceptance. It remains the dominant force in world trade. A slow one-year decline has been halted in the proportion of dollars between the holdings of the world's central banks, which were trying to diversify. And commercial banks in Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom now have more liabilities denominated in dollars than those in their own currencies.

The dominance of the dollar is testing the world again: the rules designed to make finances safer have already made dollars more difficult to pbad by. To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve is now absorbing dollars from the global financial system to try to adjust its monetary policy. "

Powell on a glide path . Josh Zumbrun of WSJ:" It is likely that Jerome Powell navigates through confirmation to become the next leader of the Federal Reserve, although the process of filling the positions of the Fed has become increasingly politicized since the days when Ben Bernanke was confirmed as president by a vote with little opposition. Powell, now a governor of the Fed, heads to his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday gaining the support of Republicans and Democrats, giving him a great chance of approval without much drama …

In May of 2012, Mr. Powell was approved by a vote of 74 to 21, for a period ending in January 2014 . Twenty-five Republicans voted for Mr. Powell, but 20 voted against him, along with an independent … Less than two years later, Mr. Powell's term had already expired. It turned out to be a diligent Fed governor who did not shake the ship, but the rancor over the Fed's confirmations had not diminished. Obama nominated him for a second term as part of a package of agreements with two other candidates for the Fed board. Mr. Powell was confirmed with 67 affirmative votes by a Senate with a Democratic majority . Therefore, when President Donald Trump began to consider who to nominate as president of the Fed this year, Powell had a key advantage in calculating Congress. "

( Ian Katz of CapAlpha on what to expect from Powell's appearance before the Senate banking panel on Tuesday :" Some Democrats, including … Warren … and the highest ranking member Sherrod Brown (D -Ohio), can pressure him to commit not to weaken Dodd-Frank-related rules, express moderate feelings without committing too much, but even if Powell faces a couple of uncomfortable moments, we hope it goes well. ")

Eye on the ball of Horizon Investment's chief global strategist Greg Valliere's morning note: " The history of the dominant market, of course, is solid economic growth and a lack of significant inflation . We will get Janet Yellen's opinion on Wednesday before the Joint Economic Committee, a day after the testimony of her likely successor, Jerome Powell. Both may cite some concerns, but they can not ignore the biggest story of all financial markets: Goldilocks persists . "

The Fed plan for 2017 is nearing completion, but the view for 2018 is diffuse

Fed officials will raise interest rates in December, meeting their projections at the beginning of 2017 for three more rate increases The beginning of the reduction of its bond portfolio, but its chances of recurring in 2018 is marred by contradictory signals on employment and debt inflation.

WSJ

TRUMP TRACKER

POCKET CHANGE

Viernes negro, acción de gracias las ventas en línea suben a un récord

Las ventas en línea del viernes negro y del Día de Acción de Gracias en Estados Unidos subieron a niveles récord ya que los compradores obtuvieron grandes descuentos y compraron más en sus dispositivos móviles, anunciando un comienzo prometedor de la temporada navideña clave, según o empresas de análisis minorista.

Reuters

DAYBOOK

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