Since I complained repeatedly in 2020, I must emphasize that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, belatedly and without enthusiasm, began to publish realistic estimates of the spread of Covid-19 in the US.
It is difficult to describe what is deliberate as an error, but at least the appropriate appendix reminds us that any fourth wave will focus on people who are not among the 100 million or so who have already been infected and therefore also acquired some immunity. like the possibly overlapping 100 million who have been vaccinated.
Which means the fourth wave will be largely confined to unvaccinated youth who have been diligently locked up for the entire time and now mix and risk in a way that they weren’t a couple of months ago.
Along the same lines, the results from California, Florida, Germany, Sweden and elsewhere eliminate any simple correlation of mandatory closings with the successful practice of social distancing. An overwhelming conclusion holds true: Like Florida, whose peak load of cases occurred long after New York or Northern Italy, certain places benefited from having time to think and consider and follow more nuanced approaches to the arrival of Covid.
We may find that lockdown measures came too late, are not obeyed, or are simply irrelevant alongside the decisions people make about when and how to expose themselves to risk.