Despite our obsessions about what teams will do in the NFL draft, the "team" is not making a decision. Usually, it is up to a person within the organization to decide who will select a franchise, and if that decision-maker protects what he or she really thinks, then no one, not even the people who work for them, knows what the "team" " it is planning. .
Take the Cleveland Browns last year. General manager John Dorsey, who had been hired at the end of the 2017 season, kept the first important card that was delivered close to his chest. Illustrated SportsPeter King reported that Dorsey had the strong feeling that he wanted to choose Baker Mayfield, not. 1 overall after a private training in March, but Dorsey did not share that information with the people who worked for him until the day of the first round on April 26. The foreigners spent four months wondering if the Browns would choose Josh Allen of Wyoming or Sam Darnold of USC, and even the people working for the Browns discovered that the team would take Mayfield only a few hours before being elected.
This year's draft will be dominated by a handful of decision makers who have the capital to give this year's project some sparks and sleight of hand to make it difficult to see how things can evolve. These are the four people who could wreak havoc on the NFL 2019 draft and what everyone may be thinking.
Steve Keim, General Manager, Arizona Cardinals: Top-Down Chaos
Selections: No. 1, No. 33, No. 65, No. 103
Keim is sitting in Dorsey's chair this year. As the general manager who is making the first pick in the draft, Keim will dictate what everyone else does. But while Cleveland was very strict last year, there's a lot of information about the Cardinals' draft plans this year.
Small Brain – Draft Kyler, Rosen Exchange: The only widespread belief in entering this draft is that the Cardinals are caught up in the recruitment of quarterback / center fielder Kyler Murray, winner of Oklahoma Heisman. The movement makes sense in football. Murray has experience in the Air Raid offensive. It is expected that the new coach, Kliff Kingsbury, will employ, and could become one of the best pbaders in football, while possessing the ability to run, as well as almost any field marshal. It is said that Arizona was offered a second-round pick for Josh Rosen, but the Cardinals can expect them to make it into a first-round pick in 2019, perhaps from Washington, Miami or the New York Giants.
Biggest Brain: Draft Kyler, keep Rosen: The rosen trade may be the traditional logic, but, as The ringerKevin Clark pointed out earlier this month that the revolutionary idea is to maintain both. The first-round QB value of 2018 has been affected after a disastrous rookie campaign, but he never had the chance to succeed with an overwhelmed coaching staff and a poorly constructed squad. Rosen can increase its commercial value simply by sitting on the bench to start the year, and it may be worth a little more if another team suffers an injury as a quarterback. Maybe two young quarterbacks are better than one.
Bigger brain: swap the selection, keep Rosen: There is a more intriguing and chaotic possibility that could explain the prevalence of Kyler's rumors to Arizona: the Cardinals may have fanned the Murray flames to increase the value of the no. 1 general selection in business negotiations. Even by the standards of draft rumors, the amount of certainty in the league that the Cardinals will take Murray is unusually high, and there's a chance we're in the queue for an even bigger rope in the No. 1 in total than the Browns taking Baker. This is how Keim described the top of the draft in the NFL combine:
"I think every year is different, but for me there are several players who really guarantee no." I chose, "Keim told ESPN's Josh Weinfuss," Enough guys, I think there's a lot of value in this team right now. "
And here is Keim last year discussing the possibility of negotiating:
"To trade, you have to find a partner, No. 2, what player is on the board when that team is willing to trade? If it is a dynamic player in that position that changes the rules of the game, it will not take anything less than the mortgage on the house, the farm and everything that comes up. "
Maybe the Cardinals are floating the possibility of choosing Murray over Rosen to reinforce that Murray is a player who changes the game and will only trade with the no. 1 place if they get a mortgage offer for the house and the farm.
Illuminated brain: play both at the same time: Kingsbury, an offensive guru, will take the Air Raid to a new level and execute an offensive by two quarterbacks.
Jon Gruden, head coach of the Oakland Raiders: all selections
Selections Project: No. 4, No. 24, No. 27, No. 35, No. 106
Do not be fooled by its title. Jon Gruden has full control of the Raiders organization. The Raiders hired NFL Network badyst Mike Mayock as the team's general manager on New Year's Eve, but only a week later, Mayock explained that Gruden was responsible.
"In all honesty, Jon has the last word, if it's ever about that, and I have zero problems with that," Mayock told ESPN's Paul Gutierrez.
With great power comes a great responsibility. The Raiders have four of the first 35 picks in this year's draft after swapping defensive end Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper.
Small Brain: use the four selections of four players: Gruden can use the four selections in the top 35 to build the base he wants, as he has the rare opportunity to place two franchise cornerstones on each side of the ball.
Bigger brain – trade down: The only surprise of Gruden would be to remain seated with the four selections. The Raiders made 10 exchanges that involved one player in 2018, the second most in the league for the Cleveland Browns. After sending his third round to Pittsburgh in the trade of Antonio Brown, the only selection of Oakland on Day 2 of the draft (rounds 2 and 3) is no. 35, the third choice of that day, which means that Jon Gruden and his stinging finger would have to stand for five hours. During last year's draft, Oakland made two exchanges for more selections on Day 2 Y He made two exchanges for the players he wanted on Day 2. Unless Gruden has a restless turn, he is likely to make a move.
Biggest brain: exchange, get two pbad brokers: The Raiders could take the pbad of their choice on the no. 4, but it is unlikely that whoever they take will be as good as Khalil Mack. But if they take two of those selections at the end of the first round and return to the top 10 for another defensive lineman (ie, Ed Oliver), they could give themselves two players who could do more together than Mack alone. would combine for less than half the blow of Mack's lid. Not to mention that Oakland could still cling to no. 35 in general in the process.
Illuminated brain – Kyler Murray Project: Most of Gruden's deals last season seemed like attempts to purge the list made up of former Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie. But there is still one dazzling piece left: Field Marshal Derek Carr. Gruden said Carr is the team's franchise quarterback in the combine, and Mayock also reiterated it.
"I think Derek Carr is a franchise quarterback, I really believe it," Mayock told reporters on the team. "Now, I also think it's a job for the general manager and the head coach to keep their eyes open to improve any position on a football team, of course, but I think it's very difficult to try to improve on a quarterback franchise like the one we have in our building at this time. "
Finding a better quarterback that Carr would be difficult, but do you know what else is difficult? Trading until the no. 1 general selection It is no exaggeration to imagine that Gruden believes that trade does not. 4, no. 27, and another selection of Day 2 to Arizona for the right to recruit Murray while retaining the no. 24 and no. 35 is better than clinging to your selections. If you give credit to the possibility that the Cardinals want to trade outside of the first team, or to the idea that it makes sense for the Raiders to upgrade to the quarterback, if they have the opportunity, it also makes sense for the Raiders to overpay. . Kyler as the icing on the cake exchanges Mack and Cooper.
Dave Gettleman, General Manager of New York Giants: Wild Card!
Capital Project: No. 6, No. 17, No. 37, No. 95
Gettleman earned the "wild card" title by swapping Odell Beckham Jr. Even the way Beckham's trade was reduced was the bananas: Gettleman wanted two first-round picks in exchange for Beckham, and the Browns responded with a first round, a third party -Garden, and safety of Jabrill Peppers. According to ESPN, instead of buying the offer in the league to try to get the two first-round picks, Gettleman accepted the agreement.
Small brain: recruit a field marshal in the no. 6: Eli Manning is old, and the property of the Giants has said that they would love to get out of this draft with a quarterback. This is not complicated.
Bigger brain: recruit a field marshal in the no. 17: One thing seems certain about the Giants on draft day: New York will not change. Gettleman was the Panthers' General Manager in five turns and has been the General Manager of the Giants in one, and in those six drafts he has never traded. That does not seem to be an option, and the winning writers of the Giants believe that the team is looking at a defensive player, but would be open to taking a quarterback with the no. 17 selection in general. (This is also what The ringerDanny Kelly's projects in his latest simulated draft.) This strategy is crazy. Pbading to a field marshal in the no. 6 and writing one later means that the team believes that one of the following things is true:
- Your favorite franchise marshal is not worth the no. 6 general selection.
- His favorite quarterback of the franchise is so disgusted by the rest of the league that he will fall to no. 17
- Your preferred franchise quarterback will be available after the no. 6 but it will go before no. 17, requiring them to change.
- Your evaluations of the quarterbacks will probably be available in the no. 6 are similar, suggesting that the best course of action is to take who stays in the no. 17
All these feel logically deformed. If the Giants believe that there is a quarterback that is worth taking in the no. 17 but not in the no. 6, may also not take a field marshal. And if the player is definitely worth the no. 17 pick, it's probably worth taking in the no. 6. When it comes to field marshals, it does not make much sense to waste time and wait for a player to fall as if it were a fantasy football draft.
Bigger brain: write a QB in 2020: The 2020 quarterback clbad is expected to be much better than this year's. Tua Tagovailoa, from Alabama, may be the best prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012, and Jake Fromm, from Georgia, would have the opportunity to go no. 1 this year if it were available. Giants co-owner John Mara has said New York will not take a quarterback if it's within reach of the team's board of directors.
Illuminated Brain – Extends Eli Manning: Forget the new field marshals: the team is ready to extend Manning, whose contract will be in force after this year.
Bill Belichick, Lord Sith, New England Patriots
Capital Project: No. 32, No. 56, No. 64, No. 73, No. 97, No. 101
With 12 selections, the Patriots have the most selections in the draft, although four of them will come in the seventh round. But the Patriots have six selections in the top 101, setting them up for the type of turn and trying to make them famous in Belichick's term.
Belichick made an elaborate defense this week of the traditional trade value picture, created by Jimmy Johnson to properly badess draft picks in rounds and years and since he was adopted by many teams, although it is considered obsolete.
"So, for you to have a chart that is different from the other 31, it's not really that productive because now we're just discussing what chart:" My chart says this. Your graph says that. & # 39; … I would say that probably everyone uses roughly the same table of values. I would say that in our draft trade negotiations over the years, especially in the last two or three years, there has not been much, "my table says," Your table says that. "
Illuminated brain Maybe Belichick uses the same table as everyone else, but the odds of him qualifying his own exchanges based on Jimmy's chart are low.