The cost of brexit increases as Britain retires to divorce suits


For months, supporters of the retreat, known as Brexit, have rejected the idea of ​​paying a substantial exit bill to meet commitments. Some, like Euroskeptic lawmaker John Redwood, have insisted that Britain owed nothing.

However, over time exhausting Britain before leaving in March 2019, such promises have clashed, brutally, with reality.

Britain's leading Brexit negotiator, David Davis, said last year that he could reach a trade agreement with the European Union that would provide the "same exact benefits" as his current membership in the single market and the bloc's customs union. He has not repeated that promise recently, probably because European leaders have repeatedly said that Britain can not enjoy the benefits of membership if it is outside the bloc.


The chief negotiator of the Brexit of Great Britain, David Davis, left and his European Union counterpart, Michel Barnier, in Brussels this month.

Virginia Mayo / Associated Press

Meanwhile, other investments are under way. Initially, legislators were informed that the European Union law would cease to apply to Great Britain in March 2019, when it leaves. Now, the government accepted that during the kind of "paralyzed" transition that Britain desperately wants, European rules, including new ones, will apply to Great Britain, as will the judgments of the European Court of Justice.

During this stagnant transition: what Ms. May suggests could be two years: Britain will also have to accept the free movement of European citizens and will not be able to control migration from the continent, although immigration was perhaps the argument that It was decisive in the referendum. [19659009] The new pragmatism of Great Britain contrasts with some initial comments by Prime Minister Theresa May, who insisted that no agreement with the European Union was better than a bad one, implying that she was ready to move away from the table.

But reality, badysts and business leaders have been saying with increasing emphasis, is that Mrs. May desperately needs to show progress in a reasonable starting plan, not a "cliff edge" exit that would potentially throw the economy into chaos. Business leaders have repeatedly warned that they will be forced to start moving operations out of Britain in the new year if nothing else is achieved.

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In London, where the government made no official comment, the change was widely criticized. A Labor Party lawmaker, Chris Leslie, said the offer would cost 1,000 pounds for each Briton, far short of the £ 350 million a week that the Brexit sponsors promised would bring Britain out. Nigel Farage, the former leader of the pro-Brexit UK pro-independence party, said on Twitter that "Christmas has arrived early for the EU"

Even if the United Kingdom were guaranteed free access to the single market, it is not worth 50 billion euros. Christmas has arrived early for the EU.

Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage)
Nov. 29, 2017

Government supporters argue that some of the European Union's initial demands for an exit payment were higher than those now being discussed, and that after withdrawing, Great Britain did not will make your regular contributions of around $ 11 billion a year.

In fact, Great Britain already had a weak hand, which has been made worse by the fact that Mrs. May, who timidly maintained her stay in the European Union during the 2016 referendum, had to placate her more ideologically. Colleagues of Brexit. They were worried about any delay in the departure of Great Britain, so in March Ms. May activated the exit procedure, before Britain was fully prepared, invoking Article 50 of the European Union treaty, which put the negotiations within a period of two years.

It hardly helped that Ms. May called general elections during which she lost valuable negotiation time and sacrificed her parliamentary majority, and with it her authority, allowing her cabinet to go to war over the Brexit strategy.

Meanwhile, economic signals have become increasingly alarming. Despite promises of the referendum on a promising future, Britain's economy has gone from being the fastest growing among the developed nations to the slowest. Investment in critical sectors such as the automotive industry has been drastically reduced.


The Bank of England. Despite the promises of the referendum, the economy of Britain has gone from being the fastest growing among the developed nations to the slowest.

Matt Dunham / Associated Press

Inflation has soared due to a significant drop in the value of the pound sterling since the referendum, putting a squeeze on living standards. Consumer spending was reduced, with car sales falling for seven consecutive months. According to some estimates, living standards will not return to their 2008 values ​​until at least 2022.

The gloom worsened when Britain recently lost the right to house two European Union agencies, for medicine and finance, that will move to the Continent.

Ms. It may be necessary to reach an agreement to start talks on future trade agreements at a meeting of European leaders in mid-December. That may be possible given his new offer on divorce, provided he can find a way forward on the other difficult issue, the border with Ireland.

Even then, it is unlikely that Britain will achieve the ambitious trade agreement with the bloc it wants, badysts say.

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"Although the current focus is on separation, the next phase of the talks could be much harsher and rougher," wrote Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute, in an badysis. "EU, the negotiators think that the British government is deceived about the kind of future relationship it can achieve."

Surprisingly, the rising cost of Brexit (£ 3 billion has been allocated for preparations, to add to the £ 700 million already spent) has proved less problematic among Mrs. May's Tories or Tories, some of which they waited.

The small band of pro-European conservatives wants to maintain good relations with the European Union, and therefore thinks that the law of exit is justified.

On the contrary, Brexit enthusiasts know that, however happy they were to leave the block without a deal, that prospect would torment the business and could cause a decelerating deceleration. That, in turn, could provoke a change in public opinion against Brexit, which could jeopardize exit support before it is completed.

Therefore, fervent supporters of Brexit on Wednesday were giving their best shine in the multi-billion euro divorce settlement forgot to mention the voters in 2016.

One of them, the former leader of the Conservative Party and Prominent pro-Brexit activist, Iain Duncan Smith, told the BBC that Britain is, "get a bargain just by leaving the EU". Analysts quickly noted that it was far from previous promises.

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