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The Bank of India has rates, eye inflation and bounce growth


By Suvashree Choudhury and Swati Bhat

MUMBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate stable on Wednesday, as expected, after inflation will accelerate to a maximum of seven months. and stronger economic growth reduced the need for monetary stimulus.

All but 54 of the analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted that the repurchase rate would remain unchanged for a second consecutive meeting at 6.00 percent, its lowest level since November 2010. [19659003] The decision of Staying firm was widely expected after the annual rate of consumer inflation rose to 3.58 percent in October, driven by higher food and crude prices. That is still low by Indian standards, but not far from the 4 percent target of the central bank.

However, the RBI left its "neutral" political stance while mildly softening its language on inflation by saying that the risks were "balanced".

Many analysts believe that the RBI will keep rates on hold in the coming months, even at its next policy meeting in February, as it looks at inflation trends.

"The cycle of global policy rates and the (rising) prices of commodities, together with the consolidated fiscal position, will keep the RBI prudent," said Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities in Mumbai.

Government officials asked the RBI to lower rates since the economy, although it recovered from the launch of a national sales tax, is not yet growing fast enough to create the jobs needed for India's youth personal.

"We have a neutral stance, which means that depending on the flow of data in the coming months and quarters we will determine what we do with respect to the policy," said RBI Governor Urjit Patel at a press conference after the decision.

"All the possibilities are on the table, and we will look carefully at both the inflation data and the growth data that will come in the coming months."

Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the rates unchanged, while one voted for a 25 basis point cut [pb]

The prices of Indian bonds have plummeted in the last weeks because investors cut expectations of rate cuts.

The central bank took advantage of an extraordinary period of low inflation, including falling food and energy prices, to reduce rates by a total of 200 bp from January 2015 to August this year, when it last cut the repository in 25 bp.

But those factors are now reversing, with oil prices rebounding and food prices rising further.

Moreo Ver, a growing number of global central banks, including the most recent in South Korea, are adjusting the policy, and the US Federal Reserve is expected. UU increase rates again next week.

Uncertainty also grows over whether the government will have to borrow more as it struggles to reach its fiscal deficit target, which could increase pressures on prices.

On Wednesday, the RBI slightly raised its inflation forecast by 10 bp to between 4.3 percent and 4.7 percent in the six months ending in March 2018. [19659003] It also retained its projection for value added growth gross, a measure of economic expansion that prefers, in 6.7 percent for the year ending in March, the same as its forecast in October.

India's economic growth rebounded to 6.3 percent in the three months ending in September, halting a decline of five quarters.

The bond markets were comforted that the statement was not as tough as some feared after the recent rise in inflation.

Yield on the Yield of the benchmark 10-year bond decreased 3 bp to 7.04 percent from around 7.07 percent before the policy decision. It had risen more than 60 bp since the policy meeting on August 2.

But the rupee weakened to 64.49 per dollar from 64.47 before the RBI statement, while the NSE share index fell 0.7 percent, mainly before the announcement of the rate.

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