Tesla (TSLA) is about to publish its fourth quarter earnings: this is what you can expect

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter and 2018 today, after the markets close. As usual, the follow-up of the results is a conference call and a question and answer session with the Tesla administration at 2:30 p.m. Pacific time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time).

Here we take a look at what both street investors and retailers expect for quarterly results.


As usual, deliveries of Tesla vehicles drive most of their results, since vehicle sales represent the main source of income for the automaker at this time.

Tesla has already confirmed deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2018: 90,700 vehicles, which is another new record for the company thanks to Model 3.

The delivery breakdown for the quarter was:

  • 63,150 Model 3
  • 13,500 Model S
  • 14,050 Model X

Model 3 increased significantly, but the deliveries of Model S and Model X are also strong. Tesla usually adjusts those numbers slightly during the publication of earnings.

Here are Tesla's quarterly global deliveries of all current vehicles in production since their releases:


Wall Street's revenue consensus is $ 7,014 billion for the quarter and Estimize, the crowdsourcing estimate website for financial estimates, predicts a very close amount: $ 7,013 billion.

They are forecasting only slight revenue growth in the last quarter when Tesla earned $ 6,824 billion.

Predictions for Tesla's income over the past two years – Estimate predictions in blue – Wall Street consensus in gray – Real results in green:

While Tesla delivered around 7,000 more vehicles during the last quarter compared to the previous quarter, the market only expects a slight increase because Tesla warned that the average sale price of Model 3 vehicles would fall during the last quarter as that advanced production. From the performance of Model 3 to more mid-range vehicles.


Earnings per share, or perhaps per share loss, is up in the air this quarter.

The Wall Street consensus is a gain of $ 2.08 per share for the quarter, while Estimize's prediction is a gain of $ 2.02 per share.

Earnings per share in the last two years – Estimate predictions in blue – Wall Street consensus in gray – Real results in green:

This quarter is interesting because the last quarter Tesla surprised the street with a record profit of $ 2.90 per share.

In the announcement that Tesla was laying off 7% of its workforce, CEO Elon Musk warned that profits had declined, but it seems that Tesla still made money in the fourth quarter:

"In [TSLA] The fourth quarter, preliminary unaudited results indicate that we again made a profit under the GAAP, but less than the third quarter. "

It seems that the street is anticipating that "less than" means approximately a 30% drop.

Other expectations for the shareholders' letter of TSLA and the call for badysts.

There will be a lot to talk about, as usual, but I hope that the announcement of dismissal will generate many questions during the conference call.

It will lead to questions about the gross margin of Model 3 and, of course, the increase in current production and how Tesla plans to bring the volume to more than 7,000 units per week.

Inevitably, investors and badysts will want to have more projections about potential profitability, especially for the current quarter because Tesla may have to pay a convertible note worth $ 900 million.

I think those questions will lead again to increase the possibility that Tesla gets more capital.

But what I personally would like to know more is a clear roadmap to Model 3 of $ 35,000 and other future products.

What's up? What would you like to know about Tesla's earnings? Let us know in the comments section below.

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