London-China will overtake the United States in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated, due to disparities between the two countries from a think tank COVID-19 pandemic.
“For some time, a broad topic of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China,” the Center for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday.
“The COVID-19 epidemic and the same economic decline have certainly confounded this rivalry in China’s favor.”
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CEBR said China’s “efficient management of the epidemic”, with its dire early lockdown, and the hit for long-term growth in the West, meant China’s relative economic performance was improving.
China looked poised for economic growth of 5.7% on average from 2021-25 before slowing down 4.5% in a year from 2026-30.
While the United States was expected to have a strong postmedic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow in a year between 2022 and 2024 and then decrease to 1.6%.
In dollar terms, Japan will remain the third largest economy in the world, pushing Germany from fourth to fifth position by the 2030s when it overtakes India.
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The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-largest economy by CEBR’s measure, will slip to sixth place by 2024.
However, despite the EU’s exit from the single market hit in 2021, British GDP in dollars was estimated to be 23% higher than France’s by 2035, helping to lead Britain into an increasingly important digital economy. Of.
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CEBR said that Europe accounted for 19% of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020, but would reduce to 12% by 2035 or decrease.
It also said that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy would be reflected in higher inflation, not slower growth.
“We see an economic cycle in mid-2020 with rising interest rates,” it presents a challenge for governments that have borrowed extensively to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.
“But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point are a greener and more technology-based world as we move into 2030.”