Surprising religious group that could decide Trump’s fate


Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada and a former member of the church, a member of the LDS Church, said “I don’t understand that there is someone who can support Amoral and he came to our view.” is. , Said in an interview.

Trump’s campaign is hoping that more Mormons have gone the way of Lee and right-wing radio host Glenn Beck – former critics who have come to support Trump.

In 2016, Democrats did not appear to convert many of the Mormons who voted against Trump. Some stayed home, while many others voted for the conservative LDS third party candidate Evan McMullin, who garnered 21 percent of the vote. McMullin also received about 7 percent in neighboring Idaho, but his support in Arizona was negligible because he was not listed on the ballot and was only a write-in candidate.

In a race without McMullin, and with 2016 expected to exceed, the two parties see a rare group of potentially obsolete voters in a very uncertain time.

“Not having a third party ticket with Evan McMullen will give us a chance to pull some of those voters in Trump camp,” McDaniel, who is Romney’s niece, said.

McMullin, who still opposes Trump, said he thinks some of his supporters will vote for the president, but “most people who voted for a third party in 2016 would support Biden in this election.” He argued that some Republicans voted “out of habit” for Trump, but have since turned sour on him.

A Biden official believed Trump would likely improve his performance among Mormons in 2016, but Democrats aim to limit those gains. Some longtime LDS Democratic organizers said that Biden had already reformed Hillary Clinton’s efforts, adding that the focus was on Utah.

“The Biden campaign seems more aware of the Latter-day St. Diaspora in the Mountain West and Atlantic South,” said Rob Taber, a national co-chairman of America’s Latter-day St. Democrats.

“It’s not shocking that Trump wins the Mormon vote, but if it’s 10-15 points in Nevada and Arizona, it’s a big deal,” said Quinn Monson, a partner at Yate Analytics, a Utah-based polling firm. And a political science professor at Church-funded Brigham Young University. “It’s suddenly getting a quarter of the African-American vote on par with the Republicans, and I think it’s within the scope of possibility. They haven’t fully come out on Donald Trump.”

So far, the Trump campaign appears to devote more of its candidates’ time to attract Mormon voters. While Pence visited Arizona, there are no plans for Biden or his running mate Kamala Harris to participate in the Modern-oriented event. Biden’s advisers believe his Catholicism may also appeal to LDS voters, but the campaign is not focusing ads on his religion in Arizona.

Trump is trailing Biden by about 5 points, according to polling average in Arizona, and LDS voters could be decisive if the race is tightened. In 2018, Kirsten Sinima largely won Maricopa County – including Mesa’s historic Mormon suburb – becoming the first Democrat to win the Arizona Senate seat since the 1980s.

Trump’s campaign advisers have said that they do not see Maricopa County as a victory; Instead, they look to run the presidential margin in rural Arizona. The LDS enclave in the White Mountains will be the key to that effort.

Trump’s public embrace by some LDS members created cracks in a community that was once largely unbroken in his politics. Former Arizona senator Bob Worsley, a Republican and founder of SkyMall, recently began organizing for Biden publicly after he realized that the Trump-aligned LDS group had hosted Pence last month, putting it That the church leadership has supported the president.

“I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life but we think this man is an abomination,” Worsley said. He thinks more Mormons will vote for Biden than in 2016 because “some found that Hillary’s husband Bill is equally lacking in the example of a good moral person.”

The church’s leadership, which members watch closely for political signals, has pressured them to remain neutral throughout the race, even as it continues to push back against Trump on immigration. In 2018, the church opposed the administration’s policies resulting in the separation of families at the border.

“We are deeply troubled by the aggressive and insensitive treatment of these families,” it was said at the time.

Biden’s campaign hopes Trump’s record on immigration will push LDS voters, including many Hispanics who have joined the church toward Democrats in recent years. The campaign is building an LDS volunteer program, using church members who support Biden to reach out to fellow Mormon friends and neighbors.

“At the end of the day, President Trump reflects more of Mormon’s policy values ​​than Joe Biden,” said Mike Noble, partner and head of research for the Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insight Polling Firm. He said it would be wrong for Trump to believe that he had a lock on LDS voters.

“Whether they can end their precarious behavior,” said Noble, would be the deciding factor for many Mormons. “