Strong economy bolsters Trump heading into 2020


It is likely that a series of surprisingly strong recent economic data reinforces President trumpDonald John Trump Peeli says he was concerned that Trump would have contested the elections if the House of Representatives margin had been short The anticipation increases for the testimony of Mueller Venezuela puts the Trump-Bolton relationship to the test MOREThe case of how he is heading for the 2020 elections.

The labor market in the United States exceeded expectations by adding 263,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest level in 50 years and gross domestic product growth accelerated at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first trimester.

Financial markets have recovered to record levels after a bloody end to 2018, while wage growth is slowly rising after years of near stagnation.

Economists were very much expecting the US economy to slow down this year, and some would increase the specter of a possible recession. But those fears have faded, and strong frontline numbers give Democrats few opportunities to attack Trump on the state of the economy.

"The markets were wrong about the risks of a recession at the turn of the year. The economy still has a significant momentum, "wrote Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in a research note on Friday.

That leaves the Democrats looking to oust Trump, instead of focusing on the president's drive to reverse the regulations, which they argue has left the workers with fewer protections, and in broad swathes of the country still struggling to survive.

"Regardless of the economic numbers, most people feel that they are working harder but they are not getting ahead of themselves," Zac McCrary, a partner at the progressive polling firm ALG Research, wrote in an email on Friday.

"People do not vote according to macroeconomic metrics, they vote according to what is happening in their own lives."

The economy will take center stage in 2020. Trump and congressional Republicans have claimed credit for boosting the economy through mbadive tax cuts and widespread deregulation.

When Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a solid but slow-growing economy from former President Obama. The unemployment rate was 4.7 percent, but GDP grew only 1.6 percent in 2016, the slowest level of economic growth since 2011.

The economy has started again since the Trump election, with unemployment falling to 3.6 percent in April and GDP growth of close to 3 percent in 2018.

Trump and vice president Mike PenceMichael's producer (Mike) Richard Pence & # 39; Game of Thrones & # 39; says the actor screamed & # 39; Mike Pence & # 39; while filming battle scenes Pence: Omar & # 39; does not know what he's talking about & # 39; in Venezuela Medical care during the night: Trump creates new religious protections for health workers | Dems turn black maternal deaths into a powerful 2020 problem | The CBO estimates 7M more uninsured for the repeal of the ObamaCare mandate MORE They have toured the country to promote the strong economy, often in the Midwestern states that voted for Obama in 2012 but turned the White House over to the Republicans in 2016.

Republicans have focused on the combination of a near-record low unemployment rate with faster GDP and wage growth. The solid April job report released on Friday by the Labor Department gave Trump new ammunition.

"We all agree that AMERICA is now number 1," Trump said in a Friday tweet, accompanied by a photo of the Drudge Report home page that promotes April's hiring boom. "We are the ENVY of the WORLD, and the best is yet to come!

However, Democrats argue that Obama should get credit for the outbreak of prosperity. They say that the United States is finally reaping the full benefits of its efforts to rebuild the economy. Economic badysts say the stimulating effects of the Republican Party's tax cuts and the sharp increase in government spending are likely to be short-lived.

Even so, Republicans believe that the recent increase in economic growth will benefit Trump in his search for re-election. The polls find Trump widely unpopular, but they also show the public giving him high marks for his handling of the economy.

Approximately 53 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's presidency, according to an average of FiveThirtyEight approval surveys updated on Friday. But 56 percent of respondents in a CNN survey said they approved Trump's economic record, a new record for his presidency.

"It's a stupid economy – it's still mostly operational," Stuart Roy, Republican Party strategist and former advisor to the majority leader in the Senate Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellHirono electrifies the left when the Senate, Trump's antagonist, confirms that Trump's House of Representatives panel, judicially nominated, will study the ban on drilling backed by the 2020 Dems PLUS (R-Ky.), Wrote in an email, citing the unofficial slogan of the first White House campaign of former President Clinton in 1992.

The strong economy was not enough to keep Republicans from losing their majority in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections of 2018. The strong current figures make the 2020 Democrats try to focus their economic messages in a more nuanced manner.

Democrats have focused on the 2017 tax law, which included a large corporate tax cut that sank the bill's popularity.

Liberal critics of the president argued that the cuts favored wealthy individuals and large corporations over middle and working clbad Americans. And there are early signs that the argument could be effective in an election against Trump.

A survey conducted by ALG Research in March found that 75 percent of potential voters in 2020 and 60 percent of Republicans support increased taxes on the rich, including 60 percent of Republicans.

"Voters do not feel that Trump's tax law reduced their taxes, in fact, many believe that their taxes have increased, while the benefits went to the rich and corporations," McCrary wrote.

Several 2020 candidates have proposed raising taxes on the rich to address income inequality and fund several ambitious policy plans.

Presidential candidate senator Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann Warren How the Democrats could avoid eating their own "New Deal Deal"? of Warren. Union help will not be easy for Biden MORE (D-Mbad.) Described a special annual tax for those with a net worth of more than $ 50 million. Your plan would apply a 2 percent tax each year on net worth between $ 50 million and $ 1 billion, and a 3 percent tax over $ 1 billion.

Senator Kamala HarrisKamala Devi Harris The United States Democrats did not understand the point with their questions for William Barr Harris to request an investigation into whether Trump lobbied Barr to open investigations Survey: Biden leads Dem's primary field at 30 points PLUS (D-Calif.) Proposed a $ 6,000 tax credit for each family earning less than $ 100,000 per year. It would be financed by reversing Trump's tax cuts for people earning more than $ 100,000 and imposing a tax on financial institutions with more than $ 50 billion in badets.

And sen. Cory BookerThe support of Cory Anthony BookerUnion will not be easy for Biden Overnight Energy – Presented by Job Creators Network – Inslee presents the first of many climate proposals for 2020 | Inslee plan gets green key group endorsement | Tickets for free concerts are sent to the Secretary of the Interior, despite ethical questions about money: the United States adds 263,000 jobs in April, which crushes expectations | Warren and Dems call for an investigation of tax preparation companies | Biden faces the dilemma of K Street allies MORE (DN.J.), who is also running for president, has presented a bill to create a savings account with federal funds for each child, financed through the increase of the estate tax and the capital gains tax. .

Democratic candidates have also tried to attract voters attracted by Trump's populist rhetoric with policies aimed at controlling corporate giants and unpopular industries.

Warren has proposed a plan to divide the larger technology companies, arguing that they distort markets and exploit middle-clbad and working Americans.

Several candidates have also adopted an expansion of government health insurance under the "Medicare for all" umbrella to insulate voters from the rising costs of health care.

"Health care costs are rising for families and Donald Trump is part of the problem," McCrary wrote. "That message surpbaded dozens of Republican incumbents in 2018: it can beat Donald Trump in 2020."

But if those appeals can overcome a strong economy, it remains to be seen.

"If Democrats are forced to undermine prosperity, they are throwing their lot with a smaller portion of the public," Roy replied.

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