Strategists say that “something is happening.”


Is it time to “get out of dodge”?
Courtesy Everett Collection

The stock market fluctuations over the past few weeks have not been fun for anyone – although they certainly help to hire financial journalists.

Here is another idea. The recent pattern may be more than a normal course of business – and perhaps something to pay attention to.

“From that whip rally yesterday, out of nowhere, I started wondering what the current market pattern of volatility and volatility is like, as we saw back in January and February of this year,” wrote David Rosenberg, a longtime Was a strategist of. Running his own firm, Rosenberg Research.

Rosenberg is often referred to as a bear, and he has seen a glass-half-full view most of this year. But he is also known for predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, working for even the biggest enablers – and victims – of the bubble, Merrill Lynch.

Biggest move in Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.15%,
2020

27 January

-453 digits

31 January

-603 digits

4 February

+407 digits

5 February

+483 digits

24 February

-1,031 points

27 February

-1,90 digits

28 February

-357 digits

2 March

+1,293 digits

3 March

-785 digits

4 March

+1,173 points

3 September

-807 digits

9 September

+439 digits

10 September

-405 digits

14 September

+327 digits

21 September

-509 digits

23 September

-525 points

25 September

+358 digits

28 September

+410 digits

Source: Rosenberg Research

While investors worldwide knew about the novel Coronavirus in January and February – few speculated how bad it would be. Rosenberg also said the markets “tanked” in February, but only ended when the Fed and the Treasury and Congress worked together to ease the most in-depth policy of all time. ”

Veteran investors sometimes prefer the bond market to signal and stock to noise.

But Rosenberg believes the recent stock-market tightness should be cause for concern.

“Do you find this behavior normal?” He asked. “For whatever reason, you think, for all this instability? Could this be an indication that something is lying in the corner?”

It is unclear what “something” could happen, though there is a long list ranging from the US presidential election to the seemingly endless string of natural disasters to the US presidential election for Brexit. And below this all global COVID-19 cases are rising that could affect health systems and SAP economies – which only hope to worsen with the return of winter.

Rosenberg wrote, “Fatigue has gone away, people are getting sluggish, but it still has an impact on economic activity.” “And as we go into the fall and then into the winter, this situation can only get worse. And market fluctuations, at the turn of the year, are telling you that you get out of the hoax – like de-risk. “

Read next: “The stock market no longer thinks it needs the Fed,” says David Rosenberg.

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