Second US virus hits growth plateau, but some experts celebrate


While coronovirus deaths in the US are increasing rapidly, public health experts are witnessing the glut of good news: the second upsurge of confirmed cases appears to be flat.

Scientists are not celebrating in any way, warning that the trend is driven by four big, hard-hit locations – Arizona, California, Florida and Texas – and in all those cases growing closer to 30 states, Gravity appears to be moving from the Sun Belt towards the Midwest, the outbreak of which.

Some experts wonder if the apparent caseloid will improve. It is also not clear when the deaths will begin. COVID-19 deaths do not run in perfect lockstep along the infection curve, the simple reason being that it can take weeks to become ill and die from the virus.

COVID-19 patient status is not known

Future? “I think it’s very difficult to predict,” the government’s leading infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

The virus claimed to have killed more than 150,000 people in the US, the highest number of deaths worldwide, along with more than one and a half million people worldwide.

Scientists say the outbreak center of gravity appears to be moving from the Sun Belt toward the Midwest. (IStock)

During the past week, the average number of COVID-19 deaths per day in the US has risen by more than 25 percent from 843 to 1,057. Florida reported 253 more deaths on Thursday, setting its third straight single-day record, while 322 new deaths occurred in Texas and 391 in California.

Nationwide the number of confirmed infections is above 4.4 million, which may be higher due to the extent of testing and because some people are infected without feeling ill.

In other events:

– Collateral damage from the virus, with the US economy shrinking at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the April-June quarter – the worst quarter of 1947 ever recorded. More than 1.4 million closed it. For unemployment benefits last week, there is further evidence that employers are still shedding five months of jobs in crisis.

– Amidst the outbreak and bad economic news, President Trump publicly floated the idea of ​​delaying the November 3 presidential election for the first time, with no warning of evidence that increased mail-in voting would result in fraud. An act of Congress would be needed to change the day of the election, and this notion went into immediate resistance from top Republicans and Democrats alike.

– Herman Cain, the former pizza-chain CEO who unsuccessfully tried to become the first black candidate to win the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2012, died in 74 from the virus.

Based on a seven-day rolling average, daily cases of coronovirus in the US fell from 67,317 on July 22 to 65,266 on Wednesday, according to data maintained by Johns Hopkins University. This is a decline of about 3 percent.

Researchers like to see two weeks of data pointing in the same direction to see if a trend is real. “But I think it’s real, yes,” said Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the University of Florida who is tracking coronoviruses and a source of disease prognosis used by the government.

The Associated Press found a seven-day rolling average for new cases over two weeks in California and decreased in Arizona, Florida and Texas.

Trends in Arizona, Texas and Florida are “starting to bend the curve a bit”, said Jennifer Nzo, a Johns Hopkins public health researcher. In those states, with California, a large number of cases are circulating nationally every day. So as those places progress, the whole country looks better, she said.

Also, in another possible glimpse of hope, the percentage of back to back tests for the virus across the US dropped from 8.5 percent to 7.8 percent on average over the previous week.

But with the outbreak spreading across the Midwest, Democratic Wisconsin Village. Tony Evers ordered that the spike be worn statewide in some cases, with some 30 other states joining such measures.

The latest increase in cases became apparent in June, weeks after states began reopening in the early spring and after a deadly explosion around New York City. Earlier this month the daily case rose to 70,000 or more. Deaths also started intensifying after a gap of a few weeks.

Some researchers believe that the recent flatness is the result of more people embracing social disturbances and other precautions.

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“I think a lot of people are wearing masks because they are scared,” Longini said.

But the dean of the University of Nebraska College of Public Health, Drs. Ali Khan said that this trend could also be due to the natural dynamics of the virus, which scientists have not yet understood.

Without a robust test and other measures to maintain the virus, a third peak is possible – or even likely – given that only an estimated 10 percent of Americans have been infected so far, experts said. said. And there is no reason to believe that the peak cannot be larger than the first two.

“As long as it’s Tinder – susceptible individuals – like any good fire, Hospotec will continue to be around,” said Khan, a former top infectious disease cell at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Fauci said he is “somewhat relaxed” by the recent plateau. But the stabilization of about 60,000 cases is “still at a very high level.” He said he is also concerned with the increasing percentage of positive tests in states such as Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana.

“There is a warning sign that you may be seeing a boom,” Fauci said. “They’ve really got to jump on it.”

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