Scientists predict that COVID-19 will become a seasonal virus – but not yet

A color scanning electron micrograph of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Sincerely: NIAID

Thanks to the sniffing nose, cough, and cold with the cold months of the year, we are all familiar with the seasonal patterns of some respiratory viruses. A new review was published in Frontiers in Public Health It suggests that COVID-19, a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, will likely follow suit and become seasonal in countries with temperate climates, but only when herd immunity is achieved. Until that time, COVID-19 will continue to air throughout the season. These findings highlight the full importance of the public health measures still needed to control the virus.

The senior author of the study at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon, Drs. Hasan Zarket warns that “COVID-19 is here to stay and it will continue to spread from year to year until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, public will. It is necessary to learn to live with and Continue to practice the best prevention measures, including wearing masks, physical disturbances, hand hygiene and avoiding ceremonies. ”

The associate author of Qatar University in Doha, Drs. Hadi Yasin confirmed and stated that COVID-19 may have several waves before regaining herd immunity.

We know that many respiratory viruses follow seasonal patterns, especially in temperate regions. For example, influenza and several types of coronaviruses that cause the common cold are known to peak in winter in temperate regions, but rotate year-round in tropical areas. The authors reviewed these seasonal viruses, examining viral and host factors that control their seasonality as well as the latest knowledge on the stability and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Researchers point out that people’s susceptibility to infection and human behavior, such as indoor congestion, vary in temperature due to changes in temperature and humidity, when surviving the virus, in the air and on the surface. These factors affect the transmission of respiratory viruses at different times of the year.

However, COVID-19 has a higher rate of transmission (R0) than other respiratory viruses such as the flu, at least partly due to circulation in a largely immunologically naïve population.

This means that unlike the flu and other respiratory viruses, seasonal control factors of the virus may not yet prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the summer months. But, once herd immunity is achieved through natural infection and vaccination, R0 must be adequately released, which may make the virus susceptible to seasonal factors.

Such seasonality has been reported for other coronaviruses, including those that have recently emerged, such as NL63 and HKU1, which follow similar circulation patterns such as influenza.

“It remains a novel virus and despite the rapidly growing body of science about it there are still things that are unknown. Whether our predictions are true or not should be seen in the future. But we think it is excessive Chances are what we see. By now, COVID-19 will eventually become as seasonal as coronaviruses, “says Zaraket.

Dr. Yasin states that “the highest global COVID-19 infection rate per year was recorded in the Gulf states regardless of the hot summer season. Although it is primarily responsible for the rapid virus spreading to closed communities, it is harsh. Confirms the need for. Control measures to limit the spread of the virus until herd immunity is achieved “.

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more information:
Frontiers in Public Health, DOI: 10.3389 / fpubh.2020.567184,… 2020.567184 / Abstract

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