DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers have been calm this month, but that should change very soon.
As the deadline for the major league exchange approaches, general manager Al Avila has at his disposal a trio of exchange tokens: right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, closer Shane Greene and starting pitcher Matt Boyd.
Assess the valuation of the Tigers' commercial chips.
Boyd, with elite strike and walk rates, a good whip and a solid FIP, is not only the most valuable asset for the rest of 2019, but must also generate massive performance due to the additional three years of team control .
That also gives the Tigers some bargaining power because they could always decide to hold on to Boyd if the offers are not liked by Avila.
Greene could be the best reliever in the market, and also has an additional year of control until 2020. He has 22 saves this season while imposing more than one batter per inning and publishes a WHIP of 0.861. Its 1.25 effectiveness is not backed by peripherals, but it has only allowed races won in four of the 36 appearances this season.
Castellanos has his limitations in defense and is a free agent at the end of the season, which makes him the least valuable chip of the three. But he leads MLB with 34 doubles, has an OPS of .822 and is scorching in July, with a bar line of .319 / .356 / .565 and 11 extra-base hits in 16 games.
Teams with interest.
Reports have been coming from around the MLB about which teams have an interest in the Tigers' perspectives. It is clear that Boyd is attracting the most attention.
The New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies, the San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros have been linked to Boyd of some way.
What would it take to land Boyd? ClickOnDetroit has previously targeted the trade of José Quintana. as a comparison because Quintana had years of control left, although with a longer history of success in the MLB. However, he never showed Boyd's dominance in the swing and was lost, and brought an elite prospect, an excellent prospect of pitchers and two other minor lightweight to the White Sox.
The Phillies, the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals and the Dodgers have been linked to Greene.
The Fathers have been able to make talented relievers the best prospects on the exchange deadline. Last year, they obtained the lead prospect Francisco Mejia for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. While Greene is not as good as Hand, he could still get a good performance if a contestant is desperate for bullpen help.
Two years ago, the Oakland Athletics acquired the elite prospect Jesus Luzardo of the Nationals in a deadline agreement centered on closer Sean Doolittle.
Relievers do not always produce massive returns, but it is not uncommon, especially for a player who is as successful as Greene, which is not a three-month rental.
Castellanos has been linked to the Cubs, who reached an expiration agreement with the Tigers two years ago that brought Jeimer Candelario, one of the 100 best then, and the current Top 100 prospect, Isaac Paredes, to Detroit for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson
The Cubs have a recent history of being willing to pay by the deadline, including the movements of Quintana and Wilson. Avila also negotiated one of his best agreements with the Cubs general manager, Jed Hoyer.
Using the above teams that have expressed interest in the Tigers players, here is a dream scenario about how the Tigers could develop next week, although the exchange deadlines are rarely so easy.
Commerce 1: Castellanos to Puppies
Specific details: The Tigers trade Castellanos for OF Brennan Davis, SS Zack Short
Look, Castellanos is definitely the best hitter in the Tigers. You can make an argument that he is your only good hitter, in fact. Only JaCoby Jones (.775 OPS) and Brandon Dixon (.765 OPS) have an OPS of more than .750 among the rest of the team hitters, and the jury definitely keeps the two.
But being the best hitter for the Tigers does not necessarily translate into huge commercial value. He is not a standout in the base roads and his defense falls his general WAR below the 1.5 mark of Candelario.
He is an excellent offensive player who could definitely help a playoff contender for three months. That's worth something, but not as much as fans might think.
When Avila negotiated J.D. Martinez with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2017He obtained the prospect No. 4 from Arizona, Dawel Lugo, the prospect No. 15 Sergio Alcantara and the unclassified prospect Jose King.
Martinez is one of baseball's best hitters, so Castellanos' return will probably not be as fruitful.
Avila would be in a position to get Davis, Chicago's 7th prospect, and Short, Chicago's 11th prospect, in an agreement.
Davis was selected in the second round of the 2018 draft and is still only 19 years old. He is having a strong offensive season, posting a .854 OPS in Single-A with five homers, nine doubles, three triples, three stolen bases and 16 bases for balls in 45 games.
Davis is a typical prospect of speed of power that also stands out in the field. The Tigers are desperate for the gardeners, so Davis would be a good bet, since the Cubs seem to be one of the few teams that are seriously considering an agreement with Castellanos.
Short is not as young as Davis, but at 24, he is closer to having an impact on the Major League level. He has gone from rookie ball to Double-A to Triple-A this season and has an .906 OPS in the Pacific Coast League.
In 20 Triple A games, he hit four doubles and four home runs while pulling nine bases on balls. He is considered more of a defensive prospect, but now that he shows some signs of life on the plate, the Tigers could give him a chance, even if he is at second base or elsewhere.
Davis and Short may not activate the fan base that has gone to sleep for a record of 30-65, but it would be a smart move for a player who will leave in a few months anyway.
Commerce 2: Greene to the Phillies
Specific details: The Tigers trade Greene for OF Adam Haseley and OF Mickey Moniak
The Phillies may not have the best farm system to match the needs of the Tigers, but they could be the most desperate contender who needs a late relay.
Philadelphia hired Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen and traded for Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto this low season. This team hopes to be in the postseason, and at the moment, that seems a bit doubtful.
The Phillies are 7.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the Eastern Division of the National League, but only 1/2 game behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card and one game behind the Nationals for the best place.
Making an exchange just to enter a playoff of a game is risky, but again, Greene is under contract for next season, so the Phillies would also be making a move for next year, when they return essentially to the same squad.
Héctor Neris is the closer of the Phillies, but he has achieved four saves and allowed seven clean runs in his last six starts. Their general numbers are not terrible, but the second half has had a difficult start.
Apart from Neris, the Phillies have a pair of solid relievers in José Alvarez and Adam Morgan. They have appeared in a combination of 75 games and 1.3 WAR. However, their strikeout rates are low and Alvarez has a WHIP of 1.26.
Even if you count Neris, Álvarez and Morgan as back-end relievers, there is a great need for another arm. Greene has been a man of preparation and closer, so he could surely fit in that bullpen where Gabe Kapler decides.
Philadelphia did not want to separate from the main prospect Alec Bohm in an agreement that does not include Boyd, but the Tigers could shoot for two recent first-round selections.
Haseley recently made his major league debut, hitting only .229, but hit two home runs and three doubles in his first 11 games. The 23-year-old gardener wore an OPS of .840 in minors with 14 doubles, 10 homers and 29 bases for balls in 62 games.
According to reports, the Tigers are looking for players "prepared for the big leagues" on the deadline, and Haseley fits that mold as a recent call. He could slide to the right in the old place of Castellanos in the right garden.
While Haseley is the number 3 prospect in the Phillies system, Moniak is number 9, but it probably has a more famous name.
Even so, with only 21 years, Moniak was the first global team in the 2016 draft. He fought in his first full season and collapsed in the rankings of prospects, but Moniak recovered in 2019, hitting 22 doubles, 10 triples and Five homers in Double-A.
Moniak may not live up to the exaggeration of a general No. 1 selection, but he clearly has raw elite tools and plenty of time to improve. If the Phillies are ready to move on, the Tigers should try to capitalize.
Commerce 3: Boyd to Astros or Yankees
Trade-specific stars: Tigers trade Boyd for OF Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher
Specific commercial Yankees: Tigers redeem Boyd for OF Clint Frazier, OF Estevan Florial and SP Chance Adams
With about a dozen teams publicly linked to Boyd, their value should only increase as it approaches July 31. While it's not helping its value by allowing 32 runs won in its last 47.1 innings, the swing hit rate is still elite and the home run rate will surely fall.
Two of the teams that could be very good for Boyd are already at the top of the American League, and not only could they be competing against each other for Boyd, but they could also be trying to prevent Boyd from landing with each other.
Remember, this is a dream scenario for the Tigers. This is to dream big.
Houston has reportedly told the Tigers that they don't want to deal with Tucker, but that could change at any time. The Astros are not joining their gardens this year with Michael Brantley and George Springer as two of the best in the game and Josh Reddick and Jake Marisnick combine for a big right-left squad.
Yordan Alvarez received Tucker's call earlier this year and has completely blocked the designated hitter spot.
Brantley, Springer, Reddick and Marisnick are also under the control of the team for next season. The Astros window is now, and there really isn't a place for Tucker in the gardens.
Fisher is in the same situation, but he will be 26 next month. He was sent to Triple-A in mid-June and has not had a position on the MLB list since then.
Tucker is the No. 10 prospect in baseball and No. 3 outfielder. There are only six offensive prospects ranked ahead of him, and he's 22 years old.
Although he was terrible for a short season with the Astros last season, he has an OPS of .929, 21 doubles, 25 home runs and 21 stolen bases in Triple-A this season. He is the type of offensive player in which the Tigers could build an alignment.
Since the Tigers are looking for a player ready for the Major Leagues in addition to a main prospect in a Boyd deal, Fisher is the perfect complement to Tucker.
He hasn't had much success at the Major League level in the last three seasons, but Fisher has only played a total of 112 games. However, in his minor league career, Fisher has an .856 OPS with 87 homers and 94 doubles. You can also take a walk, but the strikeouts have been a problem.
Tucker is the best prospect that the Tigers could realistically obtain for Boyd, and Fisher would immediately take a place in the garden and be under the control of the team until 2025.
Avila dared to mention Gleyber Torres in the trade negotiations. That is not happening, even in a dream scenario.
Frazier seems much more likely, especially since he has already been scrapped by the Yankees this season due to a disastrous defense. That's right in the alley of the Tigers in terms of corner gardeners.
Frazier was the 15th prospect in baseball in 2016 before debuting the following year. It's been as advertised with the bat, posting an OPS of .787 in 107 games in the last three years, including 15 homers and 23 doubles.
Although Frazier will turn 25 in September, he is still young enough to be the centerpiece of the Tigers' future offensive, since he is under the control of the team until 2024. His defense is a major problem in the right field. that the Tigers would have to address.
The Yankees don't have any of the 40 best prospects, but Florial is No. 46 overall and is considered a future threat of large-scale speed.
The 21-year-old signed with the Yankees in 2015 and has always been a good defender, which could help offset some of the concerns surrounding Frazer.
However, he is struggling to hit the Alta A ball, with an OPS of .628 with four home runs, seven stolen bases and 57 strikeouts in 41 games.
Since the Yankees don't have a high-end batting perspective to offer, the Tigers would do well to get both Frazier and Florial. But Avila might still want more.
Chance Adams is a 24-year-old starting pitcher who ranks 19th in the Yankees' farm system. It has been terrible in seven major league appearances, but some of the flashes in the minor leagues have been tempting.
Between Triple-A and Double-A in 2017, Adams struck out 8.1 batters for nine innings with a WHIP of 1,078 and 2.45 of effectiveness.
Adams took a step back last season and is fighting again in Triple-A this year, although the punches are still solid.
The Tigers could get a discount and connect it to the MLB rotation.
Summary of the trade deadline
From the outside looking, it is difficult to say how much interest the teams have in any of the Tigres prospects, especially with the high selling prices of Ávila. If your recent trading problems are making the price go up this year, the Tigers may not make as many deals.
But teams like the Astros and the Cubs that recently underwent reconstructions and came out as World Series contenders taking advantage of opportunities to accumulate young elite talents. Whether through the draft or the exchange deadline, the Tigers are on the clock.
It seems that Castellanos is a guarantee to move, along with Greene. Avila's deadline will be defined according to whether or not he moves Boyd and what he receives in return.
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