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The outlook for the ruble has deteriorated markedly, but no one is expecting a collapse below 70

Throughout the week, the ruble became cheaper against the dollar and the euro all Thursday, and only in the US session began to adjust in the middle of the recovery of oil prices.



Yesterday was marked by a review of the outlook for Russian assets in the context of a further increase in the risks of sanctions. Most analysts are inclined to think that Russian assets will remain under pressure, however, even without that, it is unlikely that the undervalued ruble will be much cheaper. As a guide for the dollar against the ruble, they indicate a range of 67-70 and believe that in case of further pressure on the Russian currency, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can raise rates and suspend interventions. The "fair" exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble, that is, that is eliminated from the risk premium, is often called the 60 mark.

Today in Russia begins the period of payment of taxes, which is traditionally considered as a bullish factor for the Russian currency. However, this time may be more difficult, and the dynamics of the ruble will be determined largely by the actions of foreign investors, who yesterday began to actively get rid of Russian assets. However, despite the significant inflow of capital into the financial market of the Russian Federation in January, the proportion of non-residents in the OFZ market remains relatively small by historical standards.

The volume of transactions in the currency section of the Moscow Stock Exchange on Thursday, February 14, amounted to 1,466 billion rubles ($ 22,323 billion).

Official rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (February 15, 2019):

  • 66.5429 rubles for 1 dollar
  • 75.0471 rubles for 1 euro
  • 30.6663 rubles for 1 Belarusian ruble
  • 24.5550 rubles for 10 Ukrainian hryvnia
  • 12.5345 rubles for 1 Turkish lira
  • 17.6329 rubles per 100 tenge of Kazakhstan
  • 98.2879 rubles for 10 Chinese yuan

By subject:

The ruble crashed: the United States again wants to punish Russia, but this time much more severely

Experts said what will happen to the ruble, Russian bonds and actions amid risks of sanctions

Analysts worsened rubles forecasts due to the threat of new sanctions.

America wants to make Russia "Hell": how strong will the panic be in the ruble?

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