Ristad energy: peak oil demand to accelerate COVID by 2028

Global oil demand will hit 102 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2028, Ristad Energy said on Monday, pushing low-carbon energy and the coronavirus virus epidemic will accelerate peak oil demand times from 2030 to 2028. .

Prior to epidemic forecasts for oil demand for both short and long-term, Ristad Energy expected a maximum world oil demand of 106 million bpd in 2030.

According to the energy research and business intelligence company, it will not be until 2023 that global oil demand recovers to pre-epidemic levels. In 2023, oil demand saw 100.1 million bpd, surpassing demand of 99.6 million bpd in 2019.

Global oil demand will increase to 89.3 million bpd this year. This recovery will slow down next year amid regional lockouts and sluggish recovery in the aviation industry.

“Overall, we do not believe that Kovid-19 has placed peak oil demand behind us, but we accept that the epidemic will reshape peak oil demand, both in terms of time and volume.” Aretam Tichen, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a statement.

In 2050, oil demand is expected to decline by 62 million bpd due to the high market share of electric vehicles (EVs), Ristade said.

Analysts and oil companies have recently stated that the epidemic and possible permanent changes in consumer behavior may already bring peak oil demand. Related: Can Ecuador Save Its Oil Field?

Globally, we have exceeded peak oil demand in the past year, as fuel consumption may never recover from the epidemic-driven decline, BP said in its annual outlook in September.

OPEC, for its part, is more conservative in its latest estimates, although it also revised its estimates last month and said it would not fall below a cliff even after oil demand. OPEC expects global oil demand to surpass pre-epidemic levels in 2022 and will grow rapidly until the late 2030s when it begins to plateau.

Saudi Arabia and its oil giants Aramco continue to say that peak oil demand is still not in sight and that analysts believe OPEC will need oil and gas for the world, even OPEC says global Oil demand will begin to plateau. Fall at some point in late 2030.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for oilprice.com

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