But to believe Thrasius’ prophecy and let his guard down, Tiberius inadvertently gives Caligula enough time to first poison him. The rest, as they say, is history – which Thrasius deliberately altered by reducing the life expectancy of his employer.
While many of us are unlikely to find ourselves in Caesar’s position, knowing how many years we have left can affect many aspects of our lives – including when to retire, whether for a long time. There is a long-awaited vacation from, and even some medical options. the treatment.
My Longevity, a newly developed app by researchers at the University of East Long Anglia, now allows each of us to make our life expectancy astrologer. But how much confidence should we have in these predictions?
Life expectancy vs lifetime
Simply put, how long is life expectancy, on average, members of any population can expect life. This is different from lifespan, which is the maximum duration of survival of a member of any species.
Although life span has changed very little – if at all – global life expectancy has increased more than 40 years since the beginning of the 20th century. This was achieved through a combination of scientific discoveries and public health measures that reduced infant mortality. In the UK, life expectancy at birth is now over 80 years.
Life expectancy depends a lot on where you grow up or live. So more unequal populations can be divided into sub-populations that have common traits – but which are still large enough to be statistically significant – become more accurate predictions. By doing this the population can be divided on the basis of gender (average women live longer than men) or smoking status (for obvious reasons), or both.
The team of researchers used a sophisticated version of this approach when developing their app, informed by their previous research. It factors its app in the life expectancy effects of controlled and uncontrolled hypertension, the presence of related diseases such as heart disease or rheumatoid arthritis, ongoing treatment with statins, and the presence of serious risk factors such as high cholesterol.
The development of the application involves dealing with some problems in the way of estimating potential health benefits for the overall population based on those seen in clinical trials. This is because discrepancies exist between test subjects and populations for several reasons – but usually, they are cases that are known as “tight divisions” that work against you.
For example, a clinical trial of the effects of orange juice in sailors with scurvy would show profound benefits as they are a tight segment with vitamin C deficiency. But today anyone who expects to see the same beneficial effect on health by drinking orange juice for a boat trip is very disappointing.
How seriously one should consider predictions from this type of app is basically a function of how accurately it represents the subpopulation in which you are best suited. I predicted my life expectancy by my longevity, provided by the UK Office for National Statistics and calculated with two insurance companies. Predictions vary from 84–90 years. As I am 54, this may not be a completely unbiased test of my longevity because the data the team has used makes the app the most accurate for the 60s.
The major reason life expectancy calculators spewed out such a variety of data is because of a wide range of factors influencing the results. Being married increases your life expectancy compared to being happy, like being happy. In addition to smoking, the level of intake of fruits and vegetables affects life expectancy. Perhaps precariously, alcohol consumption and exercise levels lead to profound changes in life expectancy. These are solid lifestyle changes that people can make that can add years to their lives.
The East Anglia research team hopes that access to its calculator will encourage users to adopt healthy lifestyles. However, there is some evidence that behaving in the context of their effects on life expectancy is an effective way of encouraging people to embrace superficial discussions of healthy lifestyles, health, and longevity that often lead everyone to believe that life expectancy Will try to maximize, because they are fed enough “facts” about it.
However, human motivation is emotional and spontaneous at its core and is shaped by a person most values in life. Proposals are generally supported in line with a person’s values. Those are not ignored or rejected.
Another common mistake made by those promoting behavior change is that they share their own core values by the people they want to adopt the behavior. This approach will only celebrate those who already think and feel like them. But the more developers of such apps acknowledge that users will only adopt certain behaviors according to their values and beliefs, the more useful these apps are.
This article is republished from a conversation by Professor Richard Faragher of Biogeontology, University of Bryan, under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.