In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in several major states with just 51 days to go until the November election Huh.
In particular, a New York Times / Siena College poll taken from September 8 to September 11 shows Biden retaining his lead with potential voters in four major states Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Similarly, the CBS News / YouGov poll conducted from September 9 to 11 gave the former vice president an edge among potential voters in both Minnesota and Arizona.
In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin.
This time, the GOP has indicated that they are playing to win in Minnesota. “I almost won Minnesota in 2016,” Trump tweeted Last year. “In 2020, America is hated by the anti-Jewish representative Omar, and the fact that Minnesota has been the best economic year ever, I will win the state!” His campaign exploded with $ 14 million in advertising in the state, larger than his purchasers in the swig states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, the New York Times and CBS elections would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton won a narrow win of less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS saw Biden win by 9 percent. Shown along. numbers.
The same election suggests that Trump is in danger of bashing Biden from Arizona and Wisconsin in November. CBS reports that Biden lowered Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to a New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin.
In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points – but former Bernie Sanders campaign adviser Chuck Rocha says Democrats need to take the state more seriously Is, or she can change. :
“Is it really undermined [now] Nevada has a problem, ”Rocha said. “The entire Pak Sangh has been closed. whole [Las Vegas] The bandage is closed for the most part. Hence there is astronomical unemployment. “
Rocha said Democrats are not sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the region – and that it has had a particularly difficult impact on Latin voters. To win the state, he said, Biden must present a clear plan for how his policy vision will help those who need to work right now, and income.
According to NBC News, the Trump campaign does not see Nevada as a sure thing for Biden, either. In fact, Trump campaign officials see Nevada as part of an “alternative path” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him the victory in 2016.
New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker who went for Clinton with only three-ten percent, is also part of an “alternative route” strategy. A New York Times / Siena College poll showed Biden with a 3 percentage point lead, but Trump made a point of holding rallies in the state that have a Republican governor shortly after wrapping up the Republican National Convention last month.
Overall, there is good news for Biden in these elections – but if many are narrow like his leads in New Hampshire and Arizona, there is still room for the president to swing his way.
A mostly stable race
Beyond the details of any one poll, voting for the 2020 presidential race has remained largely constant. Nationally, Biden led Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he maintained a steady lead in major swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. These latest results are consistent with these enduring trends.
And Biden’s national average also appears with a recent Fox News poll of potential voters, showing Biden with a slightly smaller edge than Trump – just 5 percentage points – but on most issues including racial inequality, epidemics, health care A tangible benefit, courts, immigration and policing. On the economy alone, voters had more confidence in Trump by a margin of 5 percentage points.
One possible reason for the observed continuity in voting is that surveys have suggested that there are fewer undeclared voters than in 2016. According to CNN, only 13 percent of the registered voters have either decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll earlier this month found that only 3 percent of potential voters Were still unspecified.
This is probably not good news for Trump, who did well in late 2016 with broken unspecified voters, but this time with a small pool of undecideds there is far more base to build on. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also slightly more popular than Clinton in 2016, while most Americans still dislike Trump.
Of course, voting is not predictive. As my colleague Li Zhou has previously explained, elections actually “capture the public sentiment one moment at a time,” and things may still change, especially as the three presidential debates are yet to come. And one needs to win only the Electoral College instead of the popular vote, a candidate who also wins over a part of a group that traditionally may have voted for their opponent may have an outside influence on the results.
However, at this particular moment, Biden appears to be in a strong position ahead of the November election.
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