Trump won Iowa’s six electoral votes in 2016 by 9.6 percentage points. Voters moved Barack Obama to the state in 2012 and 2008, among Republican and Democratic presidential candidates in previous election cycles.
According to a RealClear Politics of Iowa surveys conducted between October 1–19, Biden gave Trump 2 percentage points in general election polling.
The latest Monmouth poll also shows a competitive race for the Senate in Iowa. Both distinguished fighters Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield have the support of 47 percent of the state’s registered voters.
Greenfield leads Ernst, however, 49–47 percent under the high-probability turn model, as well as 51–45 percent under the low-probability turn model. The RealClearPolitics average of Iowa Senate polling also outscored Greenfield in front of Ernst by 5 percentage points.
The Monmouth poll was conducted on October 15–19, with 501 Iowa registered voters surveyed as well as a sample error of plus or minus 4.4% points.