Perspectives for Pfizer’s anti-infective drug business – Trefis



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Pfizer's anti-infective drugs (NYSE: PFE) represent about 12% of the company's value, according to our estimates. Most of this value can be attributed to a single family of drugs: Prevnar. The company has 10 drugs in its anti-infective portfolio, including Zyvox, Vfend, Zmax and Tygacil, among others. We hope Pfizer's anti-infective franchise will face headwinds in the future, as patents will expire soon for some of its medications. Although Prevnar's patent will expire in 2026, its sales have slowed down in recent quarters. In Q3 2017, Prevnar's sales decreased by 1% to around $ 1.5 billion. Pfizer stated that it experienced a decrease in the rate of vaccination among adults in 2016, and this situation may persist in the short term. This casts some doubt on Prevnar's ability to develop its full potential.

Prevnar could potentially be administered to 12 million babies annually, which would translate into annual revenues of $ 6.5 billion. In addition, given that the vaccine can also be administered to adults and adolescents, the unexploited potential remains significant. Even if we badume that vaccine doses are administered to only 2% of adults in the major developed countries (USA, Europe, Japan and Australia), nearly $ 2.3 billion in annual income could be added to the vaccine. vaccine at a rate of 1 dose per adult. This would add to the possible sales of $ 8.5 billion. However, given the slowdown in vaccination rates and the recent decrease in sales, we expect Prevnar's sales to remain in the $ 5-6 billion range throughout our forecast period. We do not expect a significant drop in sales since the patent is valid until 2026 in most parts of the world, and faces little threat of generic competition from now on.

Looking to the future, unlike other therapeutic areas, Pfizer does not have new anti-infective compounds in its phase 3 trials. This suggests that we are not likely to see new releases in the short term, so the growth in the anti-infective segment will depend mainly on how Prevnar expands even more. The following chart shows the historical and expected income trajectory of Pfizer's anti-infective portfolio.

We currently have an estimated price of $ 35 for Pfizer, which is approximately its current market price.

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