It feels a bit premature, of course, to call anything a sure bet early in the 2018 Oscars. It will be almost two months before nominations are announced and another month and change after that before of the winner being revealed. Given how particularly tumultuous Hollywood's reputations are in this post-Weinstein era, it can not be predicted what stock will rise or fall sharply between now and the March 4 ceremony. But even with all those questions floating in the air, the latest round of awards from Los Angeles Film Critics seems to have finally consolidated a narrative on which we can perhaps build our predictions of the awards season. It seems quite true that two-time nominee and industry veteran Willem Dafoe will finally win his Oscar.
The LAFCA is just the latest critical body to reward Dafoe as best supporting actor for his work as a besieged motel manager at The Florida Project following in the footsteps of the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review. Critics do not vote for the Oscars, but they can often be leaders for a broader narrative. When one name continues to appear on one list after another, that actor or actress can sometimes build an unstoppable head in such a way that by the time the Golden Globes are announced in mid-December, a victory for one actor or another already seems a loss . conclusion. In recent years this has been especially true in support categories where critical favorites like Patricia Arquette J.K. Simmons and Mahershala Ali had all of their Oscar statues recorded for them.
Dafoe is not the only performer who enjoys something of Oscar this weekend. Laurie Metcalf one of the favorites for her work on Lady Bird was named best supporting actress by both LAFCA and NBR. But unlike Dafoe, she has a potential competition in the comedy actress Tiffany Haddish who got an amazing triumph from the NYFCC for her comic performance in Girls Trip . It's amazing just because the NYFCC has not awarded a comedy show in that category since, you could say that Catherine Keener won for Being John Malkovich in 1999. Even that was more than a High front dramedy that direct comedy screwball.
So while I'd hesitate to call Metcalf a sure shot, Dafoe is certainly starting to feel like one. (In an uncertain year, he shares that distinction only with Pixar Coco .) Unlike some movies in the conversation of the awards season like The shape of the water, Call me by your name, and The Post, Dafoe's film, The Florida Project has been released, nationally, in theaters and with general acclaim. You never know when a big shot will kill the positive buzz of a movie when only critics and festival goers have seen it.
That, I would say, is what happened to Dafoe's main competitor, Sam Rockwell once so promising thanks to early critical reviews for his turn at Three billboards outside of Ebbing Missouri . The film caught a bit of its racial and gender politics once it got to the big version with The Ringer & # 39; s K. Austin Collins explains why, in a year when the Academy was once facing a possible nomination #OscarsSoWhite of nominees, Rockwell's performance as a redeemed redeemed cop may not be the narrative that Hollywood wants to push:
Official Rockwell Dixon, meanwhile, is a dangerous man, an absolute
criminal, really … Who is discouraged by his silly personality? The movie
it makes him more foolish and more distant than necessary; it can not seem
Imagine that a guard with a badge can be full of intention. He is
a policeman who escapes with torture and badault: How foolish can he be? But
Nevermind: Get your Oscar.
Dafoe, on the other hand, enjoys not only the multi-nomination narrative ( Platoon Shadow of the Vampire ) and a long career peppered with brilliant performances in more than 80 films, but also the heroic adornment of his character Florida Project . One scene in particular, where Bobby of Dafoe protects his younger and more vulnerable female tenants from a badual predator, could play as especially deserving of awards in today's Hollywood climate. The complete winners of Los Angeles Film Critics, including a very strong and surprising increase for Guillermo Del Toro The Shape of Water are below:
Image: Call me by your name  Subchampion: The Florida Project
Director: Guillermo del Toro The Form of Water and Luca Guadagnino Call me by your name ( tie)
Actress: Sally Hawkins The Water Form
Subchampion: Frances McDormand Three billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Call me by your name
Subchampion: James Franco The Disaster Artist
] Supporting actress: Laurie Metcalf Lady Bird
Subchampion:  Mary J. Blige Mudbound
Supporting Actor:  Willem Dafoe The Florida Project
Subchampion: Sam Rockwell Three billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Animated film: The Breadwinner
Film in a foreign language: BPM (beats per minute) and Loveless (tie)
Documentary / non-fiction:  Faces Places
Script: Jordan Peele Off
Subchampion: Martin McDonagh Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Edition: Lee Smith  Dunkirk
Subchampion: Tatiana S. Riegel Me, Tonya
Production Design: Dennis Gbadner Blade Runner 2049
Runner-up: Paul D. Austerberry The form of water
Music / score: Jonny Greenwood Phantom Thread
Subchampion: Alexandre Desplat The form of water
Cinematography: Dan Laustsen The Shape of Water
Runner-up: Roger Deakins Blade Runner 2049
Douglas Edwards Independent / Experimental Film / Video Award: Lee Anne Schmitt Purge This Land  Professional Achievement Award: Max von Sydow
] New Generation: Greta Gerwig
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