Almost every sixth car sold in the world will be electric by 2025, according to a UBS Global Cars survey published on Tuesday. And if things go the way they did in 2017, those cars are more likely to have a Tesla Inc. logo than BMW AG & # 39; s.
By the middle of the next decade, global electricity sales vehicles should reach 16.5 million, said badysts led by Patrick Hummel in the report, a 16 percent increase from the previous estimate. They predict that electric vehicles will account for 16 percent of all car sales by then, compared to a previous estimate of 14 percent.
"The change to electric cars will come faster and in a more pronounced way, driven by the demise of diesel in Europe, the technological advances of the battery and the regulation in China and Europe," said Hummel. Europe will have the highest EV penetration, approaching 30 percent of new cars sold.
Established automakers like BMW and Daimler AG are spending billions on a race to gain market share in the booming electric car market, hoping their existing scale will help them get ahead of newer companies like Tesla that focus exclusively on electric vehicles.
One of the reasons behind the updated forecast is a new double credit policy in China that makes the sale and production of electric vehicles mandatory, according to the Note. Respondents in China were more likely to say they were considering buying an electric car, at 58 percent, while those in Germany were the least likely, at 14 percent. EV sales higher than expected in 2017 also boosted the forecast, badysts said.
Hummel expects Tesla to benefit the most from the increase in electric vehicles, since the company based in Palo Alto, California had the biggest jump in EV-brand branding in the survey. The BMW based in Munich could suffer the largest increase in Tesla, since the series 3 of the company is considered the closest competitor to model 3 of Tesla.
"The growing popularity of Tesla seems to correlate directly with the launch of Model 3, the first mbad market brand, most of the other brands have lost ground in the current survey," said Hummel.
Still, the rise of Tesla is not guaranteed, according to the note, as premium brands that have yet to launch their own electric car, such as Volkswagen The Audi and Porsche of AG are still preferred to Tesla.