In final yr’s de facto Big 12 title sport in Norman, Oklahoma State dominated the field-position battle and obtained a contented turnover’s bounce or two. The Cowboys have been tied with Oklahoma at halftime, however their whole lack of pbading-downs success caught up with them.
OU scored to begin the second half, pressured a three-and-out, and scored once more. OSU kicked a area purpose however missed a second, and with about 10 minutes left, Joe Mixon’s 79-yard landing run put the sport away. OSU put itself in place to steal an upset however could not make the most of alternatives or create sufficient huge performs. And as has been the case for the overwhelming majority of this sequence, OU received by double digits, 38-20.
Bedlam’s just a little increased on the calendar this time. OU will go to OSU on Saturday, and whereas the sport is not a de-facto convention championship this time, it’s an elimination sport. The loser will see its nationwide title hopes all however completed off and must get behind TCU, the Bedlam winner, and perhaps Iowa State within the race to succeed in the re-inaugural Big 12 title sport in Jerry World.
See in the event you can spot the outlier.
- Oklahoma State’s offense ranks second within the nation with 33 good points of 30-plus yards.
- Oklahoma’s offense ranks sixth with 28 such good points.
- Oklahoma State’s protection ranks 12th, having allowed 10 good points of 30-plus.
- Oklahoma’s protection ranks 80th, having allowed 18 such good points.
With a state-of-the-art, RPO-heavy offense and the perfect deep-pitch-and-catch combo within the nation (Mason Rudolph to James Washington), Oklahoma State is principally averaging one big gash per quarter. Mike Stoops’ OU protection is permitting greater than a pair per sport.
The Sooner protection alternates between being an expansion killer and an identity-free mishmash, seemingly from quarter to quarter.
- The Sooners allowed three landing drives of 69 yards or extra to begin the Texas Tech sport, then seven factors within the Red Raiders’ last 9 possessions.
- They allowed three touchdowns on Kansas State’s first 4 drives — their solely cease was a pink zone fumble restoration — then barely 50 yards and nil factors within the subsequent 5 possessions. And then KSU scored on every of its final two drives.
- They pressured 4 punts and a turnover on downs to begin the Texas sport, then three consecutive scores, then seven factors in 5 drives.
- They allowed 10 factors within the first 4 drives towards Iowa State — first rate, not nice — after which scores on every of the Cyclones’ last 5 possessions.
Nothing works, then all the pieces works, then nothing works once more.
Injury-wise, Oklahoma State’s offensive line seems to be in the perfect form it’s been since mid-September and may not be the legal responsibility it was within the loss to TCU and the near-loss to Texas. And if each the “run” and “pbad” parts of the RPO set up themselves, the mbadive performs will move.
Statistical marker: If OSU a) has at the least three good points of 30-plus yards and b) finishes with extra of them than OU does, the Cowboys have to love their possibilities.
The OSU run sport is merely good, not nice, and sometimes the Pokes fall not on time.
Oklahoma State nonetheless has top-of-the-line pbading-downs (second-and-Eight or extra and third/fourth-and-5 or extra) offenses within the nation. The Cowboys are second in pbading-downs success fee (46 %) and second within the opponent-adjusted Pbading Downs S&P+.
OU’s protection ranks simply 83rd in the identical clbad. The Sooner cross rush, led by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, will get residence fairly usually. When it doesn’t, although, dangerous issues are inclined to occur to the Sooners.
Both of those models run cold and hot. And when OSU loses, it’s seemingly as a result of the Pokes generated virtually nothing after falling not on time. They had only a 24 % pbading-downs success fee within the loss to TCU, and final yr, in losses to Oklahoma and Central Michigan (sure, the CMU sport did formally depend as a loss), it was 15 % and 23 %, respectively.
Statistical marker: If OSU has at the least a 38 % pbading-downs success fee, the Pokes are in fine condition.
It is likely to be doubly necessary towards Oklahoma as a result of if you give the ball to the Sooners, you don’t have any concept if you’re going to get it again.
After Mixon’s landing final yr, OSU returned the kickoff into OU territory however went four-and-out.
- Oklahoma took the ball with Eight:28 left… and did not give it again. The Sooners ran out the clock with 13 performs (12 rushes) and 4 first downs.
- Last week towards Texas Tech, it was the identical factor. Up 49-27, the Sooners stuffed the Red Raiders on fourth-and-goal with 11:16 left. They moved 65 yards in 18 performs and precisely 11:16.
- Up 15 over Ohio State in September, they killed 5 key fourth-quarter minutes in a single drive.
For all of Baker Mayfield’s strengths, OU’s success has been due partially to ball management. It has performed a job within the Sooners profitable seven of their final eight one-possession video games.
This comes from having well timed execution and being actually good at lots of issues.
For the previous, be aware the Sooners aren’t operating some high-speed badault. Despite their popularity, they’re simply 87th in Adjusted Pace. They have been 54th final yr and 40th the yr earlier than. They’re slowing down, however they haven’t been really mach-speed anyway.
There’s motive to query this, truthfully. When you have got the No. 1 offense within the nation, per Off. S&P+, including some tempo means having extra alternatives to maximise your benefits. And you can make the case laid-back tempo damage the Sooners towards Iowa State. It meant the Cyclones didn’t need to do as a lot work after falling behind 14-Zero. (It additionally meant the Sooners had hbadle dialing within the urgency after they have been all of a sudden behind.)
Still, it may be devastating at instances. If OSU is struggling on pbading downs and isn’t producing a few straightforward scores with huge performs, the Cowboy protection may discover itself sporting down beneath this balanced badault.
Mayfield is relentlessly environment friendly — 73 % completion fee, 23 touchdowns to 3 picks, a 195.6 pbader ranking (finest amongst energy convention QBs) — however OU can run when it must. OU’s prime 4 backs have mixed to common 187 dashing yards per sport at 6.9 yards per carry and have gained at the least 5 yards on 51 % of their carries (the nationwide common is 39 %).
Statistical marker: If OU hits 45 % or higher in dashing success fee, it’s going to be actually onerous for the Cowboys to get the ball again.
This is the perfect protection OSU has had in fairly some time. That may not even matter towards this OU offense.
If the Sooners hadn’t briefly fallen asleep towards Iowa State, they’d be first or second within the CFP rankings proper now.
But whereas the Cowboys have undoubtedly seen their fortunes on this rivalry take a optimistic flip since he returned to Stillwater in 2001 to function offensive coordinator (earlier than taking on as head coach in 2005), OSU continues to be simply Four-12 in that span.
The first Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State sport actually was bedlam