NFL Week 4 Odds, Pix: Bro Ups Cowboys, Raiders of Bills, Falcon Stun Packers


Are we ever going to see a market correction and get some unders in the NFL this year? There’s a fascinating article on ESPN from Kevin Seifert about the NFL manipulating this year’s game – an absurd 59 percent down on the calling season. Vegas has mostly adjusted this week – there are 25 totals of about 50 points this week.

At some point the NFL can pull out the rug and start calling more caught penalties, which would dramatically reduce the scoring. Or it can be the new normal. Everything is strange and different in 2020, and it would not be surprising that the NFL ultimately shifted in terms of how the NFL punished the philosophy. Walt Anderson is clearly gaining a lot of power in the officiating office these days, and he also clearly likes the game with more storage.

This is not a bad thing! Points are more fun. Throwing the flag three times to see officers drive to call suspects is not fun. The lack of home-field advantage is also harming the defense, as is the lack of presension.

Hence the question for Week 4: Will the defense take full force? We have given a ton of points to many good defensive teams so far. At some point there must be some regression or some kind of market correction. It cannot continue with overseas hitting. Vegas is reticent to build north of 60 and with good reason. But there may not be an option if the paradigm is validly shifted.

This week can say a lot for the future of NFL yoga.

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Dan Jets (0-3) at NY Jets (0-3)

Thursday, 8:20 pm ET (NFL Network)
Point spread: Broncos-2.5

What is the opposite of Monday night Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson? Brett Ripian vs. Sam Dold is probably worthy! It’s not really That The quarterback matchup malfunction in a vacuum. Rypien Done enough at the college level To make him interesting here and Darnold was a top prospect. But when you join Adam Gesse and a whole huge host of Broncos injuries for the Jet Gates – Courtland Sutton, Von Miller, Jurrell Casey are just a few – it gets a lot less spicy. Thursday night football is at least always better than some, ahem, other programming you can kick off this week. While I think the game is extremely low scoring and as long as I think the Jets have the upper hand because they have fewer injuries, I’m not returning this Jets team at any point unless they have some skills. People with status do not withdraw.

Select: Broncos 16, Jets 10

Minnesota (0-3) at Minnesota (0-3)

1 pm ET (Fox)
Point spread: texas-4

The game should be good to go, with the Minnesota clearing COVID-19 protocol so far this week. There is a staggering number on here (58 range), but you can’t bet on Underton Deshawn Watson possibly going against the Minnesota defense that is somehow gaining respect. We need to say: The Vikings are not just good, they are the worst team in the NFC North. It is the sound of Minnesota fans coming out of the Twins’ 18th consecutive playoff loss, but the Vikings are no good. The Texans are a favorite here, but they have played the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers all the way to 0-3. They will get it right, and it will come from Watson to Will Fuller for several points.

to select: Texas 34, vikings 28

1 PM ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Bookers-7.5

First of all, this underage is an excellent bet. We have seen a massive spike in terms of point totals this season, Vegas is overcorating and, as a result, you can see it hit the Under 43 or so and stay short. Joe takes in the pick – the Buccaneers defense is just good. They are very few elite security elites in a year. Antoine Winfield, Jr., who can win Defensive Rookie of the Year if Chase Young misses longer, flies everywhere. Justin Herbert has been surprised so far, but I don’t think he will do much against a Todd Bowles defense that loves to send pressure. Books should sniff the bolt.

to select: Buccaneers 28, Chargers 10

1 PM ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Cowboys-4.5

I don’t want to alarm anyone, but the Browns are currently 2-1. They are over 500 for the first time in like 10 years. They have gained by beating some bad football teams (Cincy, Washington) and strangling a good football team (Baltimore). What should we expect here? I think they can score a point against Dallas. This is not some sort of inside analysis, but people are expecting a slow-paced game from Cleveland on this occasion. This ignores the fact that the Cowboys defense is disgusting. It marks a multi-touchdown game for Odell Beckham, who has five catches, 68 yards and nearly one score against Dallas for his career. Let me catch a one-handed touchdown score to OBJ and slam the ball to the star, as the camera probably doesn’t cut some relative masked Jerry Jones in the owners box at AT-T Stadium.

to select: Brown 35, cowboys 31

Baltimore (2-1) at Washington (1-2)

1 PM ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Ravens-13

Short week for the Baltimore football team, but it doesn’t involve too much travel and they should find a Chase Young missing Washington squad against Cleveland after his groin was injured last week. He might have given it up, but fumbling an injured second-overall pick in a season that was lost to start makes no sense. Washington actually took the front against Cleveland last week before Young’s exit, and then Nick Chubb immediately made a wild run against the football team. Baltimore would be angered after being embarrassed, and the Ravens would score through the ground game here. Lamar Jackson Smash Spot at DFS.

to select: Ravens 35, Washington 10

Arizona (2-1) at Carolina (1-2)

1 pm ET (Fox)
Point spread: Cardinals-3.5

The game looks like it should end, but the Cardinals’ defense is great and the Panthers aren’t as explosive on offense as they may seem. Personnel is there, but Carolina doesn’t throw downfield, because, Teddy Bridgewater. That’s fine – it’s not just his game. He needs to use DJ-Moore more in short-yardage games, but this is a good place for him. I think Carolina holds it against the Cards and Mayabe wins.

to select: Cardinals 24, Panthers 21

1 PM ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Colts-2.5

Huh. A 3–0 team with a fan team that would not stop complaining about a lack of respect for the team, a 15-point, fourth-quarter comeback of the season (three games) after the quarterback at the start of the season Managed to complete Is there a Dalit in the house? this is so weird. The Colts are about to win by 20-plus points. You see in my mentions, bear fans.

to select: Colts 24, Bear 3

1 pm ET (Fox)
Point spread: Saints-4.5

It’s talking like a hot take / crazy person, but the Lions could legitimately be 3-0 at this point of the season. Not really They should have beaten the Bears, they were 14–3 against the Packers and they actually beat the Cardinals. This is a different team with Kenny Golladay back on the field and Matthew Stafford starting getting things going in the pass game. Without Michael Thomas (TBD) for this game, but I don’t see how / why he plays or why he will be effective if he does) The Saints have drawn offense looking deep, not deciding to throw. And then dumping Alvin is killing Kamara. I don’t know if Matt Patricia can solve it, but I think Detroit will get enough points on its own to win it.

to select: Leo 21, Saint 1 Sain

1 pm ET (Fox)
Point Diffusion: Sihax -6.5

Boy does this line foul odor loudly. The Seahawks are playing for a 10-day rest with a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team, which is not quite a favorite? This is Vegas begging you to take the Seahawks right? It looks like this and I’m still going to take the Seahawks! I’m not a sucker for Russell Wilson throwing deep balls.

to select: Seahawks 35, Dolphins 24

1 PM ET (CBS)
Point Diffusion: Bengals-3

Nothing quite likes me like bengles superfan john breech very Excited about his team and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow manages to get out of a tie as Doug Pederson stares. The breech treated it like a Super Bowl. Imagine how excited Joe Mixon and Borough Porus go against the Jaguars defense. I think Gardner Minshaw would be better than him on Thursday night, because, well, he has to get better. But that would not be enough against a Bengals team, which is scary with Buru under center. I think it’s a shootout.

to select: Bengal 42, Jaguar 35

4:05 pm ET (FOX)
Point spread: ram-13

This line is ridiculous but what do you do? But bet The legendaryThe you could not. You really, really can’t. He was blown away by Nick Mullens and the 49ers third-string offense. Not beaten, burnt. Darrell Henderson is true – please don’t tell me that Cam Acres is the best running back on this team – and he’s about to go HAM on the terrible Giants defense. The best argument for betting the Giants is “they must turn it on at some point.” Ram in a bloodbath.

to select: Rams 35, Giants 10

Patriots (2-1) Chiefs (3-0)

4:05 pm ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chief-7

Look, I’m going to make it simple. Bill Belichick is holding seven points. This is as silly as Patrick Mahomes caught 3.5 on Monday night. So less than a week later you are going to make Belich and Cam Newton a touchdown dog? come. lets go.

to select: Patriot 35, head 31

4:05 pm ET (CBS)
Point spread: Bill-3

Bills should destroy the attackers here. Josh Allen is playing really good football, Devin Singletary ran well last week, Jack Moss will likely return, Stephen Diggs is going away every week no matter what they are playing. But it stinks, and when something smells bad I want to bet on John Gruden and Derek Carr. Give me cheese Also, the defense of the bill may not be as good as it was last year. It is almost as if it is difficult to protect on a year-to-year basis! Josh Jacobs could end a monster game here.

to select: Raiders 24, Bills 21

Eagles (0-2-1) at 49ers (2-1)

1 pm ET (Fox)
Point spread: Saints-4.5

How fun Sunday night matches are between the teams that have the best receivers – * check notes * – Brandon Ayuk and Greg Ward! Ayuk is really terrific, and you can see that Kyle Shanahan planned to deploy him the rest of the season through all the jet sweeps he ran against the Giants last season. Seven points is a ton against a theoretically good Eagles team, but what if the theory is wrong and the Eagles are really terrible? I would chalk up the G-Men last week after a backup to San Francisco with a better coach and a resting 49ers team every week.

to select: 49ers 28, Eagles 17

Falcons (0-3) at Packers (3-0)

ESPN at 8:15 pm
Point spread: Packers-7

I couldn’t be more wrong about the Packers this year and I have Openly accepted. having said that … I’ll wager against them here, because this game is going to be a crazy shootout (58 total points and it’s going to end!), And if there is a shootout, you want to be on the side of the team Holding seven points because variance is a real thing in football. The Falcons should be 2–1 worst. He led by as many as 15 points in the fourth quarter. Which was impossible until Week 3 of this season. They would hang here at home in a desperate game for Dan Quinn.

to select: Falcons 42, Packers 38