WASHINGTON – The first debate between Republican President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden is unlikely to change the minds of the vast majority of American voters who have already decided whom they support and say they cannot flow .
But the debate can still increase race and modify voters. A minor effect in persuading voters can have a profound effect on the outcome if the contest comes down on some battlegrounds. And some experts say the presidential debate has proven to solidify candidates’ impressions in ways that affect the behavior of voters.
The debate may be the last for Trump, the best chance to reshuffle the competition. But it will not be easy.
Biden has enjoyed a healthy lead in elections since becoming a Democratic nominee, and repeated attempts by Trump to gain ground have failed.
Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said, “The presidential debate falls short of what people think. Voters don’t look to make up their minds.” After Kansas City won the Super Bowl, very few San Francisco’s Fans thought to themselves, ‘Goalie, Kansas City played better, so I should have them instead.’
But the competition remains in major battlegrounds like Florida and North Carolina. And some voters will be watching with one eye to make the final choice. Nineteen percent of Americans surveyed in a recent NBC News / Wall Street Journal report that the debate is extremely important or very important to their votes.
The debate will involve two septuagenarians who are verbally stumbling, and looking at them in favor can influence voter perceptions.
“A debate can affect the outcome if either candidate showed severe signs of mental instability or cognitive decline. The key word is’ serious.” The occasional stumble, Pitney said, would not make stammering or factual errors. “Even in the first 1984 debate with Mondale, Reagan’s senior moments did not change the race. I don’t know what it would be, but it would be something we’ve never seen in the 60-year history of television presidential debates . “
Historically, the debate has proven to allow a candidate to create an image, said Barbara Perry, a professor and director of presidential studies at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia.
Richard Nixon’s “frightening” appearance in 1960 at the presidential debate in television for the first time in American history led to the younger and less experienced John F. Boosted Kennedy, possibly helping his popular vote win by 0.17 percentage points, he said.
This debate may give Trump the opportunity to present the case that his first term assumptions are negative. Trump has low job approval ratings in elections, and voters often say they rely on Biden to manage the coronovirus epidemic and health care.
But Trump continues to rely more on the economy than Biden, who often ranks as a top voter concern and will be a subject of debate. The president can use the economy to appeal to untrained voters who are worried about his pocketbook. Biden must have been trying to make ground on the economy.
Perry stated that a foreign policy by President Gerald Ford in 1976 cost him credibility to end in a narrow defeat and that Al Gore’s lamentable and “indulgent speaking style” could be damaging to the 2000 contest, something She came in a hundred. Vote in Florida.
This debate may be another important opportunity for candidates to speak on their positions.
Perry suspected that the Trump-Biden debate would tilt the result. But he said that Biden has more to lose if he makes a hefty error.
“Nothing will happen based on Trump,” he said. “A disastrous misunderstanding caused by Biden or a very poor performance could only destroy enough votes, causing his candidacy to crash, especially in a close election.”
In 1992, Bill Clinton responded to a strong debate about the economy as “a caring, sympathetic public servant, rather than a drafting Womanizer” and “overtook Bush 41 as a WASPy elite” As given in the minds of many voters. .
In 1988, a passionate response by Michael Dukakis to the fictional question involving his wife and capital punishment, “reinforced his image as a dull policy,” she said.
Caution has been suggested about the importance of debate in recent history. In 2016, elections showed Hillary Clinton winning all three debates, yet she lost to Electoral College. In 2012, President Barack Obama lost the first debate in surveys before winning and re-election.
Now, in the era of social media, the debate may be over who creates the sharpest viral moments that feed the narrative and flood on Facebook and Twitter, where candidates are talking to their Aadhaar followers, as well At the same time, the elusive are looking for unsafe voters.
Alben W. “Our modern-day debates are really about creating a great moment or many brilliant moments that will avoid becoming an inspiration for the new internet meme that affects social media,” said Barclay Forum Senior Director Ed Lee. Debates, Deliverance and Dialogue at Emory University.
Lee said the economic contrast, as it did in 2016, would matter the most.
“Many people voted for President Trump, despite his insults, insensitivity, and tough remarks,” he said. “Pocketbook issues are ultimately the deciding factor.”