In this week's podcast Nobody was played with guest Holly Anderson, I briefly made fun of what I thought I would write as a preview of the Big Ten title game on Saturday between Wisconsin and Ohio State : control of the game I wish I had not done it.
This is the state of the game. What is the score at the end of the first quarter? Because that's going to tell you more or less [what you need to know]. […]
If Ohio State comes out and plays basically as they did the last time, they saw Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, where Ohio State was up 14-0 almost immediately and Wisconsin soon realized: "Shit, do you? What is Plan B? Shit, we do not have a Plan B, "We could see Ohio State really well and put a large number on the board.
But if they can not find an early lead, Wisconsin is more than happy to grind for four quarters and hit JT Barrett a lot and force a couple of turnovers and really make them miserable.
Now, part of that was a compliment, and part of it was stating the obvious: few teams are really good late and early back. Usually, when you delay before, it means that you are a minor team. The state of Ohio has been lost several times or has seen his opponent an early lead and he responded, but to say that Wisconsin is not good playing from behind is lazy.
It could also be false.
Badgers are going to play strong and intelligent defense. They are going to run the ball. They are going to make excellent big defenders and wings closed with pieces of clay. And they can lull him over and make him believe things that once could have been true but are not now. Things like Wisconsin really can not delay the timeline / scoreboard.
Some quick statistics for you from the Wisconsin statistical profile:
- In standard downs, Badgers have a success rate of 48 percent, slightly above the national average of 47 percent. Adjusting for opponent, they are No. 39 in Standard Downs S & P +. Perfectly decent
- In pbading, they have a success rate of 40 percent, well above the national average of 31 percent. Adjusting for opponent, they are sixth in Pbading Downs S & P +. Tremendous. And unexpected.
That Badger offense was actually a little better overall (No. 26 in Off S & P +), which is not an amazing surprise considering the year that Melvin Gordon had.
Success came in standard downs, however. They were No. 11 in SD S & P + and No. 63 in PD S & P +. In third and 4 or more, quarterbacks Joel Stave and Tanner McEvoy combined for a completion rate of 48 percent and a pbader rating of only 92.7. Current quarterback Alex Hornibrook? Completion rate of 58 percent, rating 152.9.
When Ohio State closed Gordon early in the game for the 2014 conference title, there was no Plan B.
For this Wisconsin team Plan B is almost better.
But that's mainly because of opposing offenses . They have played five opponents that are clbadified in Def. S & P + top 30 at this time, and against those five teams (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern and Purdue), the Badgers did not achieve victories exactly.
- Wisconsin vs. Def. S & P + top 30 : 5.8 yards per game, 31.4 points per game
- Wisconsin against all others : 6.7 yards per game, 37.3 points per game.
Okay, not all of those 31 points per game game comes from the offense. Defense and special teams have got into the act. But the Badger's offensive has had moments of real quality this year, not the quality of "rub it and you rely on you", simply of old quality.
The Badgers have been especially good at getting back to normal. chains There is no direct correlation between being delayed and delayed on the scoreboard, but if you think about it, they are quite close. The idea of moving to another side is that most teams become one-dimensional, and opponents know they will have to throw more and take more risks.
In many ways, then, it is the same as being left behind. So the fact that The Badgers has not been late a lot this year does not mean that they would not respond well.
So, if we're not talking about Wisconsin as a team that needs a good first quarter to win …
The Badgers are strong in attack (No. 40 in Off, S & P +) and have the best defense JT Barrett and the Buckeyes have seen all year (first in Def. S & P +).
Hornibrook could be the key. He has thrown some shaky interceptions at times, but has shown the willingness to try big pitches, and has completed many of them. He completed pbades of 31 and 27 yards to A.J. Taylor in third and long, and most of the Badgers' touchdown attacks against the good defenses mentioned above featured great third-down pbades, not a leveling run by star running back Jonathan Taylor.
Overall, S & P + says The Badgers are better than Oklahoma (which went through Ohio State in Columbus) and Penn State (which the Buckeyes defeated by a point at home).
For all the experts jumping forward and already talking about a possible debate vs. Alabama Ohio State for the last playoff spot, we should probably take a step back and remember that Wisconsin has a tremendous opportunity to make that debate moot.