Liberals envisioned a multinational coalition. The voters had other ideas in color.


The proposal seemed tailor-made for one of the most diverse and liberal states in the country. California officials asked voters to lift a 24-year-old ban to ban affirmative action in education, employment, and contracting.

The political and cultural establishment of the state acted as one to pass this ballot. The governor, a senator, members of Congress, university presidents and civil rights leaders called it the right of old mistakes.

The Los Angeles Times wrote in an editorial endorsement, “Women and people of color are still at a rapid disadvantage by almost every measure.”

Yet on election day, the proposal failed by a wide margin, 57 percent to 43 percent, and Latino and Asian-American voters played a key role in defeating it. The result bridged the gap between the vision established by the liberal establishment in California, which has long envisioned the creation of a multinational, majority coalition that would embrace progressive causes, and that of many black, Latino, Asian, and Arab voters Emotions.

Variations of this puzzle can be found in surprising corners of the nation on Election Day, as slices from ethnic and racial constituencies split and cut against Democratic expectations.

“We should not think of demographics as destiny,” said Professor Omar Vaso, who studies politics and voting patterns at Princeton University. “These groups are far more heterogeneous than a monolith and campaigns often end up creating their own unknowns.”

A large number of Asian-American Californians opposed the affirmative action measure. A striking number of East and South Asian students have gained admission to elite state universities, and their families have spoken to reporters of their fear that their children would be at a disadvantage if qualifications were given less weight in college selection. That fight sparked yet another event over the years in New York City, where a white liberal mayor was angered by efforts to increase the number of black and Latina students in select high schools — the Central and South and East Asian sections of which had children Has gained admission in a large number of schools.

“California has more texture than blue politics,” said Lanhe Chen, a fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution at Stanford University and Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential director of policy. “Identity politics only goes so far. There is a sentiment on affirmative action that people resent being categorized by progressivists. “

Latino, too, appear sharply divided. Leading Latino nonprofits and civil rights organizations supported the affirmative action proposal, even as all 14-majority Latino counties in California voted for it.

Latino’s make up more than half of San Bernardino County’s population, though there are very few to vote for. More residents voted on the affirmative action proposal for the president, rejecting it by a margin of 28 percentage points. In rural Imperial County, in the southeastern corner of the state, 85 percent of the population is Latino. The voters there, Joseph R. Giving Biden Jr. a margin of nearly 27 points of victory, they went against affirmative action by 16 percentage points.

The results suggest that Democrats may need to adjust their strategy as to the complexities of class, generation, and experience, and the competitive desires of these demographic groups become apparent. After the dawn of the 21st century, it has become common for party leaders to speak of a rising demographic tide that is destined to lift Democrats to dominance. The liberal coalition is seen as resting on the basis of upper-middle class white voters, working as well as middle-class black, Latino and Asian voters.

In widespread trauma, that narrative took place. Black voters were instrumental in giving Democratic columns to Georgia (albeit so closely that a statewide audit is taking place), with a change in the white suburban vote. Therefore, black voters in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia also voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats – as did the majority-white suburbs – and gave Pennsylvania a national election for the presidential election.

In Arizona, Latino voters piled large margins for Mr. Biden and for the first time since 1996 narrowed the state into a democratic pillar. Representative Rubin Gallego is a former Democratic Congressman (Harvard graduate) of Phoenix. Several decades of aggressive tactics by Republican governors and white sheriffs created activism among the young Latino dominating politics there.

“Galligo said,” Republicans caught latent lightning in bottles in Florida and South Texas, but not here. “” We’re politicizing a lot. It’s just important that white liberals don’t impose their views and policies on us. “

However, from those successes, the election wrapped up the complexities within each other for Democrats. In Texas and Florida, in California, and in Colorado (where New York Times exit polls found that nearly 40 percent of white voters and 38 percent of Latino voters cast ballots for President Trump), the notion that people of color are part of a liberal Democratic Will vote as The block often proved to be an illusion.

John Judis is a liberal writer and scholar who co-wrote “The Emerging Democratic Majority” in 2002, which became a seminal text for those who saw the Democratic Party as a political tide. He has since supported One Touch.

“‘People of Color’ is a term that has been culturally abandoned as an argument that if these groups voted Democratic in the past, they would do so in the future.” “I don’t see how you can argue.”

Seeing the Latin vote as integrity, of course, is meant to sharply capture the different politics and ethnicity of people from nearly two dozen countries on two continents. The same is true when examining the behavior of Asian-American voters.

Philadelphia provides a snapshot: a record number of Latinos in the city, who are Puerto Ricans and Dominicans, ejected Mr. Biden. Exit polls also found that 22 percent in 2016, this year. Latino voter support for Trump dropped to 35 percent. In Milwaukee, an analysis of urban Milwaukee reported an increase in Latino’s working-class vote for Trump, although the majority still favored Mr. Biden.

The vote margin shifted dramatically in 2020, with the Rio Grande in Texas, where some Mexican-American families, known as the Tejnos, have roots that span four centuries. Latino voting increased almost entirely to Mr. Trump’s benefit. Although Mr. Biden received more total votes in the four counties of the Rio Grande Valley than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, his margin of victory fell sharply.

Reasons cited for these results include poor area organizing by the Democratic Party, cultural conservatism of some older Tejno families, and the fact that many of these-intensive counties find good-paying employment with border patrols.

Many voters were also concerned that Mr. Biden and the Democrats would implement the new coronovirus-driven shutdown, with dire consequences for many thousands who would do it themselves and labor for small businesses. Prof Omar Valerio-Jimenez grew up in the Rio Grande Valley and teaches history at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Many of his old friends and cousins ​​voted for Mr. Trump.

“They faced this challenge: do they keep opening our stores and restaurants and churches, which lets us pay our bills,” he said, “do we quarantine and not have the money to pay our bills Huh?”

Muslim voters also misled Democratic strategists to reach 35 percent in support of Mr. Trump, according to The Associated Press. It is also, a constituency difficult for pigeonpea, as it includes African, Arab, South Asian, and European.

“Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution said,” A significant number of Muslims have experienced Donald Trump and to the surprise of Democrats, he said, ‘We want more of it. “

Analyzing the vote shift is a difficult business, especially when trying to gauge why some Latino, black, or Arab voters shifted from supporting a liberal democratic candidate like Mrs. Clinton in 2016 to populist totalitarians like Trump Vote for Republicans. Some analysts appealed among male voters – regardless of color or ethnicity – of Mr. Trump’s masculine personality. Others referred to the performance of the national economy, which stood together until the plague.

The black vote also saw small, complex changes. A Times exit poll in Georgia found that 16 percent of black men voted for Mr. Trump. (Compared to 7 percent of black women.) And to chart the votes along the so-called Black Belt in the Mississippi River, which includes 10 counties along the Mississippi River, it was to be ascertained that although Mr. Biden won by hand , But her margin was two to three percentage points smaller than that of almost every county, Mrs. Clinton.

The unanswered question is whether the 2020 election will be unilateral, with the voting pattern reconstructed by an unusually polarizing president who drew and repeated near similar measurements. If it signifies something bigger, political scientists said, some Latino and Asian voters may begin to behave like white voters who have voted along class lines with more affluent residents in urban areas, while Democratic voting The vast majority of rural and outlying residents support Republicans. .

Then there is California, where the sand of change flows in different directions. In 2018, Democrats held Orange County congressional seats. In 2020, Republicans retaliated and took at least two seats from them.

Republican candidate Michelle Steele, who is Korean-American, turned against the affirmative action proposal, a stance that proved popular with her Asian-American constituents as well as many white voters. And on Election Night, Ms. Steele supports the Democratic Congress, a narrow victory against Harley Ruda.

“This is a challenge for liberal Democrats,” Professor Wasow said. “In a diverse society, how do you implement politics that can advance racial equality without reinforcing racial divisions that are regressive and hurt you politically?”

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