- In a coronaires update shared with reporters this week, a World Health Organization official made a disappointing assessment of when life would be normal and that the COVID-19 pandemic would end.
- WHO’S DR. Soumya Swaminathan predicts that it will be 2022 before this happens, as a result of the amount of time required to obtain the vaccine in a large enough health of the population.
- Swaminathan said that the epidemic would end when 60% -70% of the population was immune to the virus.
In a coronavirus update shared with reporters during a briefing on Tuesday in Geneva, the World Health Organization chief science officer threw cold water on the notion that the way we ever use things or the end of that epidemic will do. It is also at hand from a distance.
Dr. Soumya Swaminathan told reporters that “how it works” in response to the notion that after January arrived, vaccines would have started tricking the population and things would start to return to normal. “We’re looking at 2022, at least, before enough people start getting the vaccine to make them immune,” she continued. “Therefore, for a long time to come, we will have to maintain the same measures that are currently being put in place with physical disturbances, masking and respiratory hygiene.”
The reason is the case, she said, because once the vaccine starts rolling out, some 60% -70% of the population in the world needs immunity, before there is a meaningful reduction in virus transmission. Oh, and about that immunity – health experts are still not sure how long it will last, even behind a successful vaccine, so some sort of determination regarding the vaccine booster shot is down the line. May have to do, as well.
As disappointing as it sounds, to satisfy themselves with a year or more before some of these extraordinary circumstances begin to spread, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates – whose foundation is public health campaigns around the world Has been in the forefront – agree with this estimate.
“In a very good case, two years from now, you are back to where you were in early 2020, ideally for something particularly health-related, especially in things like health,” he said in an interview New york magazine. “If we are lucky enough that many of these vaccines work, with enough of a low cost that we can measure manufacturing. And if we get a factory and we get the money to buy it for the whole world.”
In that case – arguably a best case scenario – the epidemic is slowing throughout 2021. And in 2022, the authorities finally announced its abolition. As a reminder, the timetable for arrival of a vaccine (which is the key piece needed to hit the dates we have stated) is as follows:
Some vaccine clinical trials have faced safety issues, requiring a pause in the study, but the phase 3 trial nevertheless has about a dozen vaccine trials. Because there are so many, the hope is that at least one of those drugs will clear the final stages of the test. Once this happens, however, vaccine manufacturers will not be able to supply a large amount of vaccine for everyone to take it.
Vaccinating the entire population of the world would be a massive undertaking, and since most vaccine candidates require two shots (expires in a few weeks) the world has to vaccinate each survivor against COVID-19 15 billion doses will be required.