While most countries went into lockdown as Kovid-19 spread rapidly around the world, Sweden took a different approach and allowed controlled spread of coronovirus among populations in efforts to regain herd immunity.
They relied on individuals for social distance responsibly and were slowing the spread of the disease, but, according to a new study published by Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, This decision has failed.
“It is clear that not only is the rate of viral infection, hospitalization, and mortality (per million population) much higher than that observed in neighboring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time period of the epidemic in Sweden is different , Infection and mortality over a period of a few significant weeks seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway with continued persistence, well, said lead author Professor David Goldsmith.
Herd immunity occurs when enough people, like Kovid-19, are afflicted with a disease that the disease cannot easily transmit and thus indirectly provides protection.
This can be achieved either through vaccination or if enough people catch the disease and develop immunity.
Health officials predicted that 40% of Stockholm’s population may have the disease by May 2020 and antibodies have been acquired. According to the study, the actual prevalence figure is only 15%.
He also noted that Sweden had higher viral infections, hospitalizations, and mortality than neighboring countries.
Goldsmith said that countries where rapid lock-down measures had been in place since the beginning of March appear to be more successful in curbing the growth of infection initially and thus leading to fatal consequences of Kovid-19 across the country Huh.
Sweden faced considerable criticism for its controversial decision, especially when the death rate per 100,000 still surpassed the US in July.
Nevertheless, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegenel, has continued to stand by his decision.
Last month he said in an interview that there was still “no strong evidence that a lockdown would have made such a difference”. However, he admitted that many had died.
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven also stands still with the strategy, stating in July that he has no doubt that his country’s highly controversial strategy to fight Kovid-19 is justified.
“The strategy is right, I’m absolutely confident about it,” he said in an interview with Aftonblat.
And he may be right.
As many experts point out, it is still too early to tell which epidemic strategy would be best in the long run.
The authors note that it will not be possible until two years after the epidemic that we can tell which method is most effective.
But new evidence is beginning to emerge that herd immunity may be more difficult than thought.
For example, clinical and research findings suggest, only severely infected Kovid-19 patients receive antibodies in the immediate and early recovery phase of their disease.
Preliminary research has shown that immunity, even in those who were severely infected, may fade after a few weeks and we have seen cases of reinfection.
Research also shows that antibodies are found only rarely in mildly ill or asymptomatic patients, meaning that they are not very low immune, and therefore cannot prevent the spread of infection among the community.
However, according to MIT Technology Review, “Antibodies are not the only way people can fight Kovid-19. T cells, which detect and destroy cells infected with SARS-CoV-2, may also provide some protection.”
The second problem is the number of people who need to catch Kovid-19, which currently exceeds it.
Most experts estimate that between 40 and 80% of the population require infection. However, James Hamblin reported in The Atlantic, “Coronavirus’s effects are not linear. The virus affects individuals and populations in very different ways. ”
“People are exposed to different amounts of viruses from different routes, in different contexts. A virus that is new to the species produces more diversity in immune responses, ”he wrote.
“Some of us are more likely to be infected, and some are more likely to transmit the virus if infected. Even small differences in individual sensitivity and transmission, as with any chaotic event, can give rise to very different results as an impact compound over time on an epidemic scale. “
In other words, the amount of people needing to expose the virus to slow it down may be very low.
Gabriella Gomes, a researcher who studies chaos at the University of Strathclyde, told Hamblin that we only need 20% of people to be immune to see Kovid’s broadcast decline.
Except for the small fact that seems almost achievable that no one wants to catch it.
Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told NPR: “Nobody wants to be part of the herd”.
And it is most likely that any attempt to reach herd immunity will fail.