Kovid-19: Growth in cases may slow in England


Two women go through the parable of a virus in OldhamImage copyright
Reuters

Coronavirus cases may slow growth, the largest study of infections in England suggests.

A team from Imperial College London analyzed samples from 84,000 people selected at random from across the country.

He said the R number, the reproductive number of the virus, was introduced by measures including the “rule of six”.

However, they warn that cases are high, one in every 200 people is infected.

React studies are highly influential, both because of its size and because it gives an up-to-date picture of how the virus is spreading. The final samples used in the analysis were collected as recently as Saturday.

This was the last React report that infection was found every seven to eight days in late August and early September.

In turn, it warned that there could be 50,000 cases a day by mid-October if this pattern continued.

The research group then estimated the R number – the number of each infected person undergoing the virus, on average – was 1.7.

The latest analysis, samples from the swab collected between 19 and 26 September, show that the R number has dropped to around 1.1 – although the exact figure is uncertain.

Researchers said this is the first sign that raises public concern about the “Six of Rule” and coronaviruses “may have an impact on transmission”.

Professor Paul Elliott of Imperial College London told me: “This is a very important period, we know in an exponential phase that you get into a large number of cases very quickly.

“The rate of increase appears to be declining, with R numbers decreasing.

“Clearly no one wants a complete lockdown, but if we focus on social health, social messaging, hand washing, face covering and testing and isolating, I think we can reduce the virus Huh.”

However, the period when the cases were doubling every week, now the number of viruses around is more.

“What we’ve found to be a significant increase in prevalence, Elliott said, is that the virus is measurable in people walking the streets on any one day of 200 days.”

As the study randomly examines people, not all people who test positive will go to develop symptoms.

However, the increase was noted in all regions of the country and in all age groups.

The infection rate was highest among 18- to 24-year-olds, one positive for every 100 tested for the virus.

Infection rates were very low among over-65s, but have increased sevenfold since the previous report (0.04% to 0.29%).

“The idea that it’s all young people and ‘it’s alright’ just isn’t the case,” Prof Elliott said.

It is only one of many sources of information – along with the Office for National Statistics, disease modeling groups, hospital statistics, and the NHS Test and Trace – that the government relies on to assess the situation.

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Reuters

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Further restrictions may be imposed in Liverpool

‘No reason for decency’

On Wednesday, the government’s chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Valence, said: “We do not have control of it at the moment.

“There is no reason for complacency here.”

The latest UK coronovirus data showed 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.

Last week, Mr Johnson introduced restrictions including similar announcements in Scotland and Wales, including a 10pm closing time for pubs, bars and restaurants in England and a 15-man limit on weddings.

Since then, further local lockdowns have come into force, including in north-east England, where local homes are banned from entering indoors.

Some MPs are now expecting an additional ban in Liverpool after meeting with care minister Helen Whale.

The city has seen a spike in cases with a 16% positivity rate.

BBC Newsnight was told that the measures would be stricter than the place in the North East, and could include a ban on pubs serving drinks with food.

Meanwhile, other MPs said that the case was “hypnotic” for regular testing of all NHS employees in England.

The Health and Social Care Committee said that it should be started as soon as possible before winter.

The government and NHS England told the committee that they wanted to bring regular testing of employees, but any plans depended on available capacity.

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